burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the colder air is prevailing on this run, further west , like the Euro and Phil mentioned. the only thing is the southern stream is weaker, which I have doubts about compared to the better resolution EURO. This could be overrunning snow for ATL and northern Deep South fairly quickly, adjusting for the biases of the GFS. By Sunday midday at 114 its supressed in southern Miss. and the precip shield doesnt' get far north. It may be correct, but I love the look , again adjusting for biases and errors the GFS has at this range. @120 it looks like it might be trying to turn...not sure if that will help us at all. This run looks a lot like the GFS was panting with the Christmas storm a few days out. I take that back, it gets suppressed down to Key West at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And super suppressed. Very different from 12z and 18z runs. Yep, but we know how the models..cough cough gfs.. likes to squash things at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 When tonights Euro comes in witha big snowfall overruning the Tenn Valley , from Tup to ATL and points north, which it likely will, it will once again show why its superior to the GFS at this time range and the biases are evident. It still could get warmer and become a mixed bag, but I'd fear that much more than supression at this point for Tenn , n. Ala and GA and the carolinas. The GFS is just showing its biases, and a good reason not to follow the model at this time range verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep it's starting to head towards Orlando at 114....WTF with these huge swings every run? Just a little swing....Going thru NE/Ka @ 12z and heading to Cuba at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 @120 it looks like it might be trying to turn...not sure if that will help us at all. This run looks a lot like the GFS was panting with the Christmas storm a few days out. I take that back, it gets suppressed down to Key West at 126 You know, didn't the Christmas storm do the same thing...Probably a different set-up. But we are kind of in that range where models lose systems for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 From a cutter to a Cuba diver in 12 hours WOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 @120 it looks like it might be trying to turn...not sure if that will help us at all. This run looks a lot like the GFS was panting with the Christmas storm a few days out. Big shift from previous runs through 120hrs, continuity is lost, as is the Miller B on this run... And you are correct, it does look similar to the period just before Christmas with respect to the southern stream placement around LA, however, there is no evidence of a northern parcel phasing, rather just an untouched southern stream vort. Good run, and a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep, but we know how the models..cough cough gfs.. likes to squash things at this range. That is true as this is the Houdini period for the GFS where things vanish....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 @120 it looks like it might be trying to turn...not sure if that will help us at all. This run looks a lot like the GFS was panting with the Christmas storm a few days out. I take that back, it gets suppressed down to Key West at 126 I was about to say...this thing may give Fidel some snow! I am quite sure this will show a different solution tomorrow. The models are having a very tough time picking up on the waves diving down. Man...I was hoping for a colder (which we have on this run) but more northerly (precip) on this run. I guess I need to try to stay up to see what the EURO has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Was just looking at that. GFS is warmer and is usually more accurate than the NAM. At this point likely P-TYPE in GA would be cold rain. Probably, but the next clipper system is a bit more moist than prior runs for north ga. Although it doesn't show a lot of precip, there is a fair bit of moisture with it. It's a very quick shot though but temps plenty cold enough. So could see a quick shot of snow showers late thursday night/friday morning. Doesn't look quite as promising as it did earlier when I looked at it for nc though at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 From a cutter to a Cuba diver in 12 hours WOW!!! Ok, now that is funny! No kidding. I worked late, glanced quickly at the 18z, saw a lakes cutter, and moved on. This run is not even in the same ballpark. Maybe whatever is causing those birds to fall out of the sky is messing w/ the model data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 When tonights Euro comes in witha big snowfall overruning the Tenn Valley , from Tup to ATL and points north, which it likely will, it will once again show why its superior to the GFS at this time range and the biases are evident. It still could get warmer and become a mixed bag, but I'd fear that much more than supression at this point for Tenn , n. Ala and GA and the carolinas. The GFS is just showing its biases, and a good reason not to follow the model at this time range verbatim. Foothills, If you are staying up to PBP the Euro, then I am in for the ride tonight. I gots ta know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I was about to say...this thing may give Fidel some snow! I am quite sure this will show a different solution tomorrow. The models are having a very tough time picking up on the waves diving down. Man...I was hoping for a colder (which we have on this run) but more northerly (precip) on this run. I guess I need to try to stay up to see what the EURO has to say. Yea I have to pick up the GF from the airport at midnight tonight so I might stay up for the Euro but I really need sleep! I like what Robert is preaching tonight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 lol just a bit of a shift this run. 18z first vs the 0z run at the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 0z GFS made a huge shift. I imaging it will still make several of these during this pattern, but..........the pattern still looks pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ok, now that is funny! No kidding. I worked late, glanced quickly at the 18z, saw a lakes cutter, and moved on. This run is not even in the same ballpark. Maybe whatever is causing those birds to fall out of the sky is messing w/ the model data. LOL.. I was waiting to see this run look more like the 12z euro. This is just insane. I wonder if the CMC will still have a 985 low in eastern Kansas agian. Im gonna ride the "Robert model" for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 On this run there is yet another clipper for NC at 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Foothills, If you are staying up to PBP the Euro, then I am in for the ride tonight. I gots ta know... i'm afraid i wont be up for the Euro tonight. Early day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 0z GFS made a huge shift. I imaging it will still make several of these during this pattern, but..........the pattern still looks pretty awesome. If Only I had a nickel for everytime someone posted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i'm afraid i wont be up for the Euro tonight. Early day tomorrow. LOL..J/K. Please let me know if you need anything (Mom). I will be riding past Shelby tomorrow afternoon. Have a good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i'm afraid i wont be up for the Euro tonight. Early day tomorrow. Burger...you are up bro! LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Just figured I'd throw the board a bone before I head to bed. In chat with DT, just asked him if the pattern has I-40 special from AR to NC written all over it and his answer was "It certainly does" Hope the Euro paints white for many for you guys staying up for it. Have a great night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 fwiw, GGEM completely different now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 CMC has a 1002mb low sitting over new orleans at 120hrs. heavy precip in miss/AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GGEm has a serious snowstorm for northern Al, GA and western SC. Its a little late to start and takes the really southern track sout of Texas, but does get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ok, I know I said I was going to bed, but it appears this lifts into the southern apps as well Robert..........through 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GGEm has a serious snowstorm for northern Al, GA and western SC. Its a little late to start and takes the really southern track sout of Texas, but does get there. QPF looks like a solid .75...or thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ok, I know I said I was going to bed, but it appears this lifts into the southern apps as well Robert..........through 144 LOL. and now the CMC has a huge hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GGEm has a serious snowstorm for northern Al, GA and western SC. Its a little late to start and takes the really southern track sout of Texas, but does get there. Hey Robert or someone else...what timeframe? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If I am reading this correctly, NWS-GSP does not seem too confident with tomorrow night: AS PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WE CAN ADD LITTLE OF VALUE TO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT ATTM. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD THE FRONTOGENETICALLY-FORCED LIGHT PRECIP BAND TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SC BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP HOLDING OFF OVER THE MTNS UNTIL QG FORCING CROSSES THE REGION WED EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS COULD PROBABLY USE SOME MINOR TWEAKING IN TERMS OF TIMING/QPF...THE OVERALL TREND OF ALL RAIN PIEDMONT/FHILLS...AND A MOSTLY SNOW/LOW-LEVEL ADVISORY EVENT IN THE MTNS HAS VERY STRONG SUPPORT FROM ALL EXAMINED GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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