Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Cold pattern appears to break somewhere after the 20th. Nina like pattern appears to take hold. How many times have we thought that would happen? Better get our snow in now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Cold pattern appears to break somewhere after the 20th. Nina like pattern appears to take hold. How many times have we thought that would happen? Better get our snow in now... I hear ya. Granted it is just the GFS, but I was shocked to see the radical change in the long term on tonights 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 06z says not so fast.......cold weather could hang on longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z GFS shows the trough(the pattern and not the storm) in the East much more shallow than several previous runs. It will be interesting to see the ensembles. But the operational trend is beginning to bang the drum for warm. Hope it's wrong or just temporary. Temperature gradient is unreal after 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z GFS shows the trough(the pattern and not the storm) in the East much more shallow than several previous runs. It will be interesting to see the ensembles. But the operational trend is beginning to bang the drum for warm. Hope it's wrong or just temporary. Temperature gradient is unreal after 180. Yeah, noticed that too man. It has done this so many times before though, so, hope it's just doing the same and trying to incorporate too much "La nina" into it. lol. However, IF, some of those features at higher lats show up as depicted , there would be some merit ,i.m.o..Those pressing HP's southward in western Canada along with a further north displaced G block and weaker 50-50 would probably favor a more semi z jet config wnw/ese oriented flow. The 6z looked good for our area but, I have more faith in the 0z and 12z. Of course, still a ways out and with the waffling going on , could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 FWIW, the JMA and Canadian are showing interesting happenings around the 144-168 hr. Dr No is not on board. The 12z GFS was close, and also it's operational was quite cold throughout the period - not so w/ the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looking ahead... The 12z EURO shows a threat for us around Day 9. It takes a weak low across the northern Gulf and then bombs it a couple hundred miles off the NC coast. Maybe this will be the winter that keeps on giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GFS shows the trough(the pattern and not the storm) in the East much more shallow than several previous runs. It will be interesting to see the ensembles. But the operational trend is beginning to bang the drum for warm. Hope it's wrong or just temporary. Temperature gradient is unreal after 180. I hope it's right. It'd be nice to have some days in the 60s with sun. If it ain't gonna snow -- and it ain't -- then let's at least have pleasant weather until spring arrives (can't wait). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looking ahead... The 12z EURO shows a threat for us around Day 9. It takes a weak low across the northern Gulf and then bombs it a couple hundred miles of the NC coast. Maybe this will be the winter that keeps on giving. A bomb off the coast seems to be the only way we can get a snow here anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Someone in the GSP-CLT corridor could make a run at lower single digits later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Someone in the GSP-CLT corridor could make a run at lower single digits later in the week. I think what we have coming up is going to rival the previous cold outbreaks here in the Carolinas and Georgia. Finally, we have a 1043 that only weakens to 1032 as it comes right over the Southern Apps by Thursday morning. -12 to -9 at 850, and all this is over heavy snowpack, so some areas that radiate perfectly in TN, NC,SC, GA and even N. AL could make a serious run at zero, outside the mountains. Charlotte has had a lot of cold mornings already without snow cover, and I've had my coldest reading in 7+ years here and the Airport, so I see no reason not to expect single digits. In fact I'm forecasting temps in Shelby to go below 5 degrees on Thursday morning or Friday morning.. Of course the slightest wind will make a difference, but this setup and postioning argues for a bone chilling cold. Snow pack is the final straw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Evidenty the 12z GFS didn't get the message that we are suppose to warm up, nor did previous runs. 0z Euro also looks to build a +PNA and with the polar vortex in Central Canada anyone guessing we ever truly warm could be in trouble. Time will tell, but it definitely has the look of average to below average in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Evidenty the 12z GFS didn't get the message that we are suppose to warm up, nor did previous runs. 0z Euro also looks to build a +PNA and with the polar vortex in Central Canada anyone guessing we ever truly warm could be in trouble. Time will tell, but it definitely has the look of average to below average in the long range. Yeah 6z started showing the cold again. Looks like the NAO goes positive for a couple days, then it tanks again, insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Robert/jeremy, I fully expect to get into the single digits wed night and thur night and I'm really curious to see if we can make a run toward the lower single digits. However, The models currently are showing low teens in general wed through friday am. Probably depends on how much snow is left but virtually none of it's melting today and after a start in the low teens tomorrow, a coating of ice on top to protect it, and highs probably not reaching freezing, we should have quite a lot still. Winds are of course another key. With the last few outbreaks we really never got the high to come directly overhead and we kept pretty high winds on the coldest mornings but this time the high center will in fact be directly over head by thursday so that is encouraging for thur and fri am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Evidenty the 12z GFS didn't get the message that we are suppose to warm up, nor did previous runs. 0z Euro also looks to build a +PNA and with the polar vortex in Central Canada anyone guessing we ever truly warm could be in trouble. Time will tell, but it definitely has the look of average to below average in the long range. The endurance of this pattern this season and last year makes me think something more longterm, extensive is afoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The endurance of this pattern this season and last year makes me think something more longterm, extensive is afoot. Agreed...The current pattern shows no sign of really changing in the long term...Maybe some just some "relaxing" in the pattern for a brief period of time, but we seemed locked into this for the forseeable future....Let the snow/ice threats continue for the South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think what we have coming up is going to rival the previous cold outbreaks here in the Carolinas and Georgia. Finally, we have a 1043 that only weakens to 1032 as it comes right over the Southern Apps by Thursday morning. -12 to -9 at 850, and all this is over heavy snowpack, so some areas that radiate perfectly in TN, NC,SC, GA and even N. AL could make a serious run at zero, outside the mountains. Charlotte has had a lot of cold mornings already without snow cover, and I've had my coldest reading in 7+ years here and the Airport, so I see no reason not to expect single digits. In fact I'm forecasting temps in Shelby to go below 5 degrees on Thursday morning or Friday morning.. Of course the slightest wind will make a difference, but this setup and postioning argues for a bone chilling cold. Snow pack is the final straw. Couldnt agree more. There's been some just terrible temperature forecasts for today...I'm sitting at 28 and we're supposed to be anywhere from 34-36 today(if you listened to GSP or any media outlet). They shouldve known we'd struggle to even crack 30 today. This stuff is going to hang around forever. Robert/jeremy, I fully expect to get into the single digits wed night and thur night and I'm really curious to see if we can make a run toward the lower single digits. However, The models currently are showing low teens in general wed through friday am. Probably depends on how much snow is left but virtually none of it's melting today and after a start in the low teens tomorrow, a coating of ice on top to protect it, and highs probably not reaching freezing, we should have quite a lot still. Winds are of course another key. With the last few outbreaks we really never got the high to come directly overhead and we kept pretty high winds on the coldest mornings but this time the high center will in fact be directly over head by thursday so that is encouraging for thur and fri am. Yeah, absolutely none of it's melting her either. If we clear out early enough tonight, I could see us crashing to the mid teens. If that happens, we're going to struggle to make freezing tomorrow which will make wednesday night even colder. It's the same domino effect we see anytime we have a snowpack around here. It seems the models just never get it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I would imagine that today would have to feature some kind of record for snow cover across the United States. Considering the other system that has dropped snow all across the midsection of the country and our southern system's swath of destruction. That alone should really help our low's to bottom out this week. Not to mention, the 850 line is way ahead of what the models were showing for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am like most on here that love snow but, this storm hit all of upstate sc with 6-12 inches of snow and has pretty much shut alot of this area down. Out of work the last several days so, I am not looking forward for at least a little while for another big storm. The problem is our highway crews and our budget is not prepared for this kind of a storm. All I have heard and seen on tv have been nightmares, alot of the main roads are still in horrible shape and the secondary roads you can forget. Our area was suppose to get a huge shipment of salt yesterday but, it never showed up and I have not heard if it has come in today or not. Now with all the cold that is coming to where it might not get above freezing until friday with lows around 10 or lower... What is funny though, I live in the general vicinity of several multi-million dollar home lake subdivisions here in pickens county and the crews have the main roads around this general vicinity in pretty good shape. I lost count how many times these highway crews came by yesterday when it was snowing and last night and I thought they were doing this on the main roads in our entire county but, I found out this morning that this was done just pretty much just in this area. Up until we had these high dollar sub-divisions come to this area which was about 5-10 years ago, we were always the last on the list for the highway crews to come by and plow the roads. Now are area is a high priority area when it come to taking care of the roads while alot of the rest of the county suffers, which makes no sense at all....$$$$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Don't look now, but today's just released 12Z Euro 240 hour map has a massive 1050 mb Arctic high and -39 C 850's plunging down through west-central Canada with eyes on the U.S.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Don't look now, but today's just released 12Z Euro 240 hour map has a massive 1050 mb Arctic high and -39 C 850's plunging down through west-central Canada with eyes on the U.S.! And so it begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The OP. ECMWF would be an Arctic Super outbreak to rival the 1983 and 1985 ones, some of the greatest ever recorded for the Country as a whole. It looks like the closed Alaska block goes to China, then exerts north toward the Pole, dislodging a giant chunk of cold air and merges with the Polar Vortex on our side of the Globe, then brings it down into the country. Not unprecendented, but not too likely yet. However, La Nina's are known for extreme amplification, so if this keeps up, something like this will be likely. There's enough PNA ridging out west to push the airmass bodily down. It has -40 at the core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The OP. ECMWF would be an Arctic Super outbreak to rival the 1983 and 1985 ones, some of the greatest ever recorded for the Country as a whole. It looks like the closed Alaska block goes to China, then exerts north toward the Pole, dislodging a giant chunk of cold air and merges with the Polar Vortex on our side of the Globe, then brings it down into the country. Not unprecendented, but not too likely yet. However, La Nina's are known for extreme amplification, so if this keeps up, something like this will be likely. There's enough PNA ridging out west to push the airmass bodily down. It has -40 at the core The GFS was showing something like that in the 300+ hour range on Friday I think. I remember talking with Dixieblizzard how it was the coldest I had ever seen on the models, 4 years FWIW. After the all the La Nina talk and torch winter forecasts, if the this winter were to end today, I would be very happy. I will take 2 4inch+ events any and every winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The GFS was showing something like that in the 300+ hour range on Friday I think. I remember talking with Dixieblizzard how it was the coldest I had ever seen on the models, 4 years FWIW. After the all the La Nina talk and torch winter forecasts, if the this winter were to end today, I would be very happy. I will take 2 4inch+ events any and every winter here. I agree Kevin! If winter ended today, I'd be happy. With this being Jan 11th, we still may have opportunities which is insane. I am starting to think the current solar minimum may be playing a part in this, combined with the ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Including today's temperatures, the average monthly temp for KCLT has been 36.54. If you average that with last month, the average temperature for the past 42 days in Charlotte has been 35.67! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I hit 33 today imby. The airport looked to top out at 32. So the roads are looking OK. 100% wet with some ice. Local community college is already on a 3 hours delay. Waiting for the call from the school system about work tomorrow. The snow on the ground, however, has not melted one bit! Couldnt agree more. There's been some just terrible temperature forecasts for today...I'm sitting at 28 and we're supposed to be anywhere from 34-36 today(if you listened to GSP or any media outlet). They shouldve known we'd struggle to even crack 30 today. This stuff is going to hang around forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I hit 33 today imby. The airport looked to top out at 32. So the roads are looking OK. 100% wet with some ice. Local community college is already on a 3 hours delay. Waiting for the call from the school system about work tomorrow. The snow on the ground, however, has not melted one bit! I never made it past 30...sitting at 30.9 ATTM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I never made it past 30...sitting at 30.9 ATTM I never made it out of the 20's. LOL. Been anywhere from 27 to 29 all day. Looking for the bottom to drop out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 32.8 now. West wind is really starting to pick up. I've been dropping since 3:30 OT True story from last night. You know you're in the south when.... Two men break into a liquor store and steal several bottles of liquor and cigarettes. Police respond and follow the tracks in the snow and arrest the 2 suspects in a apartment a half mile away.... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I assumed I woudl have been right around 30 all day. But hit 32 around 10am this morning. Yes, looking for a low of 22 with fog. IF we have fog at 22 it will freeze. !! I never made it past 30...sitting at 30.9 ATTM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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