NEGa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I know we are WAY into lala land with the GFS, but still! The pattern that shows is RIDICULOUS! The trough all the way into FL, and bringing highs here in Columbus, GA near 2!!!! Other than that, this weekend is going to be interesting across West Central Georgia with the possibility of a wintry mix depending on the timing of everything. Looks like you may be forecasting your second winter event soon lol This pattern is wild. I cant believe what they are showing to be honest - but i am certainly not complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Whatever happened to the torch in January everybody was complaining about in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I agree w/ everyone else on the 6z gfs run. The pattern is crazy!!! I've been paying attention to the long range a little more since I'm going to Sylva, NC on 1/14. I'm a little concerned about that trip now if they get snow and ice on Monday then the pattern looks active in the future also. The bad thing is I have no internet service at the in-laws so I don't have a clue what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I agree w/ everyone else on the 6z gfs run. The pattern is crazy!!! I've been paying attention to the long range a little more since I'm going to Sylva, NC on 1/14. I'm a little concerned about that trip now if they get snow and ice on Monday then the pattern looks active in the future also. The bad thing is I have no internet service at the in-laws so I don't have a clue what's going on. Yep it is going to be a fun week coming up. Winter storm Sunday - Tuesday morning, Epic Cold and another possible storm around 1/14 or 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like you may be forecasting your second winter event soon lol This pattern is wild. I cant believe what they are showing to be honest - but i am certainly not complaining Yup! I will have to refresh the memory and see how deep the cold layer needs to be for sleet, as opposed to freezing rain. That also depends on the intensity of the rain... It's going to be fun forecasting! I have been asked NUMEROUS times now if I am sure I am in Columbus, GEORGIA instead of Columbus, OHIO! haha! I don't mind it though, I am excited to see what goes down. Though, many people at church last night asked me what the weather will be like Monday... for their tailgating for the BCS Game. I told them to watch out for rain and a possible mix. I always feel hesitant saying anything like that though, but I figured I needed to warn them that there is a CHANCE of wintry weather for them... I kind of hope it happens for my accuracy sake, but then again they WANT me to be wrong.... Oh the joys of being a TV Weatherman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yep it is going to be a fun week coming up. Winter storm Sunday - Tuesday morning, Epic Cold and another possible storm around 1/14 or 15. It is crazy....I don't ever remember anything like this for this area. My trip might have to be cut short. It depends on what shows up after the Sunday/Monday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Holy lord.... Meteostar looks about the same for this area also, Jeremy. Oh and btw, you sound to correct in your post. Gosh... <---QC link to meteostar please, wanta see if its gets it below zero on the coast. That would be the coldest ever here and pretty much kill everything sub tropical/tropical in nature/ornamental. it would turn myrtle beach into atlantic city in terms of horticulture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 link to meteostar please, wanta see if its gets it below zero on the coast. That would be the coldest ever here and pretty much kill everything sub tropical/tropical in nature/ornamental. it would turn myrtle beach into atlantic city in terms of horticulture Hasn't it gotten to around 3 or 4 in Myrtle before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hasn't it gotten to around 3 or 4 in Myrtle before? found it KCRE here, if this verifies, holy shnikes!! http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KCRE 348 Thu 01/20 18Z 5 ° -5 ° -3 ° WNW 13 WNW 31 0.02 0.00 521 546-16 ° -20 °1033 59 % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yup! I will have to refresh the memory and see how deep the cold layer needs to be for sleet, as opposed to freezing rain. That also depends on the intensity of the rain... It's going to be fun forecasting! I have been asked NUMEROUS times now if I am sure I am in Columbus, GEORGIA instead of Columbus, OHIO! haha! I don't mind it though, I am excited to see what goes down. Though, many people at church last night asked me what the weather will be like Monday... for their tailgating for the BCS Game. I told them to watch out for rain and a possible mix. I always feel hesitant saying anything like that though, but I figured I needed to warn them that there is a CHANCE of wintry weather for them... I kind of hope it happens for my accuracy sake, but then again they WANT me to be wrong.... Oh the joys of being a TV Weatherman. good luck lol.....i forgot it was the bowl game too....fun times glad i am not the one that has to go out on a limb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 0z Euro at 96 now 12z NAM at 84 Im not a MET, but DAMN do these look close to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think it's more important to inform people about the potential weather than worry about being wrong. For some people, this is going to be major. If we have an ice storm, especially around the metro Atlanta area, and especially with the temperatures that will be coming in, we have a VERY serious and dangerous problem on our hands. I'm letting people know the potential and not mincing words with it. What actually happens, we'll have to wait to find out. I would rather warn people about the ice and snow and be wrong than have it sneak up and turn into a major disaster. You tell me which is needs to be considered, saving face or saving lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think it's more important to inform people about the potential weather than worry about being wrong. For some people, this is going to be major. If we have an ice storm, especially around the metro Atlanta area, and especially with the temperatures that will be coming in, we have a VERY serious and dangerous problem on our hands. I'm letting people know the potential and not mincing words with it. What actually happens, we'll have to wait to find out. I would rather warn people about the ice and snow and be wrong than have it sneak up and turn into a major disaster. You tell me which is needs to be considered, saving face or saving lives. I agree. I plan to make a grocery run before Sunday. The local TV news isn't going to start hyping this thing until probably Saturday night, and then the stors will be chaos on Sunday. They want to be almost 100% sure they are right before saying anything because people would say they cry wolf if they say a big storm is coming and it doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I see you found it great site link to meteostar please, wanta see if its gets it below zero on the coast. That would be the coldest ever here and pretty much kill everything sub tropical/tropical in nature/ornamental. it would turn myrtle beach into atlantic city in terms of horticulture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 found it KCRE here, if this verifies, holy shnikes!! http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KCRE 348 Thu 01/20 18Z 5 ° -5 ° -3 ° WNW 13 WNW 31 0.02 0.00 521 546-16 ° -20 °1033 59 % I wouldn't worry about that. I'm sure the super long term models have shown that around here before. Plus, no way windy and cloudy makes it 5 below in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think it's more important to inform people about the potential weather than worry about being wrong. For some people, this is going to be major. If we have an ice storm, especially around the metro Atlanta area, and especially with the temperatures that will be coming in, we have a VERY serious and dangerous problem on our hands. I'm letting people know the potential and not mincing words with it. What actually happens, we'll have to wait to find out. I would rather warn people about the ice and snow and be wrong than have it sneak up and turn into a major disaster. You tell me which is needs to be considered, saving face or saving lives. It's Thursday. A Monday storm isn't going to sneak up. And at this point I'd rather not mention it than be wrong if I were a met. In the SE, every time snow is forecast people say "Oh it's not gonna snow, they're always wrong." But in the last few events, forecasters have been very good. So they need to keep up their track record. If they're constantly calling for storms early that never verify, people won't listen to forecasts in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I wouldn't worry about that. I'm sure the super long term models have shown that around here before. Plus, no way windy and cloudy makes it 5 below in SC. oh I doubt it would verify too, but its crazy to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just for giggles and grins, I looked up the meteostar projections for KGSO for the period Jan 17-20 and they show a high temp during that time of 28 and 2.6in of liquid equivalent precip which with very high ratios would amount to about 4 FEET of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 0z Euro at 96 Im not a MET, but DAMN do these look close to my untrained eye. they are suprisingly close, but the Euro has better resolution and is stronger with its southern system a little. Its a nice sight to see. If the Euro is right, it will be a very big, heavy snow in the north and right quadrant of its5h divergence field, which looks to aim at Arkansas, N. Ms, N. al and southern and western Tenn, for starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 In waiting for Meteostar to update with the 12z GFS, I saw this for RDU from the 6z run and about fell out of my chair! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 In waiting for Meteostar to update with the 12z GFS, I saw this for RDU from the 6z run and about fell out of my chair! lolwut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lolwut? 12z GFS gives RDU and PGV a little over 0.3" with our Friday Clipper Skipper... RDU PGV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 In waiting for Meteostar to update with the 12z GFS, I saw this for RDU from the 6z run and about fell out of my chair! 12z backed off, still brutal cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I've looked all over Meteostar and can't find those! Can you post a link please? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I've looked all over Meteostar and can't find those! Can you post a link please? Thanks! http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KAVL Just change your three-letter identifier at the end of the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 RAH says some areas could get an inch or 2 from the system Friday night. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY... FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL CAUSE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ALONG WITH DECENT LIFT. NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN TO RESULT IN MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF BUT ARE SUCH OVER THE SE HALF THAT P-TYPE IS INDETERMINATE. IN SUCH CASES...A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW USUALLY OCCURS WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. CROSS SECTIONS OF TEMP PROFILE OVERLAID WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE INDICATE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH THE FAVORED DENDRITE AREA TO PRODUCE SNOW BUT THE LOWEST 2000 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY WARM (IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON) WHEN THE BEST FORCING ENTERS OUR REGION. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC IN VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 64. WHILE THIS ORIENTATION MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX ACROSS SC...BELIEVE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND WILL INITIALLY CAUSE MELTING...CUTTING INTO SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WILL INCREASE POPS TO SOLID CHANCE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH P-TYPE PREDOMINATELY SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AND RAIN-SNOW MIX OVER THE SE INITIALLY THEN CHANGING TO SNOW. WILL DEPICT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS WITH A SLIGHT NOD TO A HEAVIER BAND IN VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 64. IF MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 0.10-0.15 OF AN INCH LIKELY...THEN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. MIN TEMPS 25-30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 RAH says some areas could get an inch or 2 from the system Friday night. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY... FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL CAUSE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ALONG WITH DECENT LIFT. NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN TO RESULT IN MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF BUT ARE SUCH OVER THE SE HALF THAT P-TYPE IS INDETERMINATE. IN SUCH CASES...A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW USUALLY OCCURS WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. CROSS SECTIONS OF TEMP PROFILE OVERLAID WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE INDICATE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH THE FAVORED DENDRITE AREA TO PRODUCE SNOW BUT THE LOWEST 2000 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY WARM (IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON) WHEN THE BEST FORCING ENTERS OUR REGION. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC IN VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 64. WHILE THIS ORIENTATION MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX ACROSS SC...BELIEVE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND WILL INITIALLY CAUSE MELTING...CUTTING INTO SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WILL INCREASE POPS TO SOLID CHANCE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH P-TYPE PREDOMINATELY SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AND RAIN-SNOW MIX OVER THE SE INITIALLY THEN CHANGING TO SNOW. WILL DEPICT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS WITH A SLIGHT NOD TO A HEAVIER BAND IN VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 64. IF MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 0.10-0.15 OF AN INCH LIKELY...THEN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. MIN TEMPS 25-30. No, they say some guidance suggests that. But due to other factors, they will not forecast that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z NAM now keeps all that precip well south of I-40. At the rate the models are going, we'll be lucky to see anything over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We lost our -27º, too! That's a good thing, though. I wasn't really looking forward to opening the refridgerator to use as a heat source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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