BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 ABC 33/40 out of Birmingham is saying the model that shows the most snow for AL ( the ECMWF), is showing 2-4 inches mainly along and north of I-20. James Spann is a great severe weather met. I have no doubts that him and his staff have saved hundreds of lives over the years. However, he's terrible at winter wx forecasting and long range forecasting in general. There is just no damn way the .9 QPF that shows up on the Euro for BHM equals out to 2-4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 that's completely wrong, it shows a lot more than that What's up with James Spann lately ? Didn't he mess up on the Christmas storm too ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Do we want to begin a specific thread for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Like night and day... 12z GFS precip at 1 pm on 1/8: 18z NAM at same time With the 18z NAM looking more like the Euro the 18z GFS should be an interesting run to watch. I'm not going to get to see the 00z runs since I need sleep badly but I feel pretty confident we are going to get really good agreement tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Do we want to begin a specific thread for this event? Yes and you should do the honors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 New BMX AFD, has the words snow and 4-6" in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes and you should do the honors. Oops.. I just made one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes and you should do the honors. Too late, Wow beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What's up with James Spann lately ? Didn't he mess up on the Christmas storm too ? Yes he did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 For the winter storm forecast for early next week, discuss here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/7283-the-jan-9-11-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes and you should do the honors. I'll 2nd that Motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Per GSP thoughts on tonight's event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats_small.gif FWIW, Cold weather on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 12Z WED GFS MeteoStar output has SAV (airport) at 30-32 F from midnight to noon Mon. with mainly NNE winds, i.e., winds not off of the warmer ocean. During that time, there is ~0.60" of qpf. and 850's start from +1 to +2 C and rise to ~+4 C. Those 850's are consistent with IP that turns to ZR assuming decent wedging/low level cold/dry and little to no marine influence. So, this gfs run is literally saying the area just west of the city would have a significant IP/ZR event with the city also at risk since it is only 5-10 miles SE of there. I don't ever recall seeing model output like this there since I started following models during the 1990's. So, it has my attention fwiw. The thing that makes me doubtful is that there usually is a parent high centered in/near the NE US in situations like this to feed abundant cold/dry air at the lowest levels on NE to NNE winds. However, actual IP/ZR storms in this area have been quite rare. Therefore, there's not much climo to consider as far as position of the parent high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I agree with Lookout. Mr Bob should post more. It seems he has posted less since he got the met tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Lol, that'd be me! I love that the models I've seen this week have been showing moisture hanging around for days, and impulses in the stream over and over. I've loved hearing you N.C. folks talk about the big repeating hits back in the 60's that your folks talk about up there. Hoping this will be that historic shot you were alluding to a few days back. But the main things is...how about you? Does the Doc hammer Robert this time? T Thanks Tony, hope I get it also. Most of the biggest snows here were progged to my south early on, so I'm hopeful it trends a little more north, but still I think the mid South gets a big wallop from this. (Deep south as well). We do have to keep in mind this is 4 to 6 days away so a lot could change and it isn't a slam dunk by any means. History has taught us to keep our expectations and emotions in check but it is really hard to seeing this setup. We have decent model agreement and the pattern dictates any low should take a near perfect track for heavy inland snow. Half of me wants to jump out of my seat the other half says hold on..it's not here just yet lol. Man I am truly hoping atlanta and you get a historic thumping. I'm hoping we can all cash in this one, it has the look of the early 80's storms, I know those were nino events but with such a displaced pattern and the blocking, and last weeks storms and cold, it can happen, even against climo. Some spots could get a 12" or more amount from this, but I wouldn't say who yet, or even which state. You're on a roll and up to NE GA so I'd bet that trend continues. Hopefully it won't fizzle or skip the Upstate to here like so many do, only to redevelop again to my east. That's fine by me....for the Euro it's odd how from a line of CLT to Gastonia to Shelby we stay out of the heavier QPF during the entire event. Not buying it, but it's just funny how that always plays out I'd be fit if it happens again. Out of all the storms we followed last year and this year, this is the one I want to happen. Everything looks so perfect and the temps are plenty cold, even that dreaded bubble of low level warmth banked against the mountains would be gone. We just need solid precip. The 12Z WED GFS MeteoStar output has SAV (airport) at 30-32 F from midnight to noon Mon. with mainly NNE winds, i.e., winds not off of the warmer ocean. During that time, there is ~0.60" of qpf. and 850's start from +1 to +2 C and rise to ~+4 C. Those 850's are consistent with IP that turns to ZR assuming decent wedging/low level cold/dry and little to no marine influence. So, this gfs run is literally saying the area just west of the city would have a significant IP/ZR event with the city also at risk since it is only 5-10 miles SE of there. I don't ever recall seeing model output like this there since I started following models during the 1990's. So, it has my attention fwiw. The thing that makes me doubtful is that there usually is a parent high centered in/near the NE US in situations like this to feed abundant cold/dry air at the lowest levels on NE to NNE winds. However, actual IP/ZR storms in this area have been quite rare. Therefore, there's not much climo to consider as far as position of the parent high. Larry checkout some of the March 1960's storms. I know several of those had the parent high in Canada, and in south central to west central Canada at that, and ridged completely down to the Southeast, thousands of miles away, because of the very displaced southern storm track and blocking going on. This patten is very similar to it at the surface and history proved that it can deliver zr and sleet , even without a perfect classic damming setup. I think the area just south of the heavy snow axis will be the mixed bag zone, with a complete sleet zone in there somewhere probably from central SC to central GA-Al-Miss., although narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What's interesting(though certainly not to be taken verbatim) is that the 18z GFS builds a glacier over the southern Apps throughout its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I just updated my forecast and discussion: http://www.sandhillswx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lost amongst the talk of next week's storm is the fact that snow is falling across Tennessee this evening. One inch here in Erwin, with up to three inches across the mountains. You may now return to your originally planned weekend forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lost amongst the talk of next week's storm is the fact that snow is falling across Tennessee this evening. One inch here in Erwin, with up to three inches across the mountains. You may now return to your originally planned weekend forecasting. Congrats Blue Ridge....Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Larry checkout some of the March 1960's storms. I know several of those had the parent high in Canada, and in south central to west central Canada at that, and ridged completely down to the Southeast, thousands of miles away, because of the very displaced southern storm track and blocking going on. This patten is very similar to it at the surface and history proved that it can deliver zr and sleet , even without a perfect classic damming setup. I think the area just south of the heavy snow axis will be the mixed bag zone, with a complete sleet zone in there somewhere probably from central SC to central GA-Al-Miss., although narrow. Robert, Thanks for referring me to 3/1960. I refreshed my memory and see what you're saying about the parent being up in Canada for these events. i hadn't checked them today only because 3/1960 didn't quite produce a sig. ZR event at SAV...only trace amounts at most. However, CHS looks to have had somewhat more sig. ZR on 3/11 with the parent being all of the way up in Canada. So, I'll need to keep these in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Good morning, QC... I was just looking at that and had to go to the NCEP maps to make sure it wasn't a transposition burp. MINUS twenties in the 336+ range? That's downright scary cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Even for the GFS this is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Holy lord.... Meteostar looks about the same for this area also, Jeremy. Oh and btw, you sound to correct in your post. Gosh... <---QC Even for the GFS this is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The cold shown on the 6Z GFS is a good 10-15 degrees below the absolute record low temperature here.Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If the crack the GFS is smoking even turns out to be close to right with the cold air coming there will be MAJOR problems with pipes bursting and not to forget the elderly and homeless. That is a major killing cold if it where to be correct which knowning the GFS and its bias for long rang cold I would expect to to moderate a good bit but still, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If the crack the GFS is smoking even turns out to be close to right with the cold air coming there will be MAJOR problems with pipes bursting and not to forget the elderly and homeless. That is a major killing cold if it where to be correct which knowning the GFS and its bias for long rang cold I would expect to to moderate a good bit but still, wow. Yea especially here in CLT with the public officials disdain of the homeless. Pet rescues should be on high alert as this will also kill a lot of animals sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I know we are WAY into lala land with the GFS, but still! The pattern that shows is RIDICULOUS! The trough all the way into FL, and bringing highs here in Columbus, GA near 2!!!! Other than that, this weekend is going to be interesting across West Central Georgia with the possibility of a wintry mix depending on the timing of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yea especially here in CLT with the public officials disdain of the homeless. Pet rescues should be on high alert as this will also kill a lot of animals sadly. So many pet owners leave them out regardless of weather. I have a heated bed that will go out for the feral cat(s) around here. We also have hay in the barn for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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