Uncle Nasty Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 All of the information posted here is awesome and I want to say thanks to all of the mets and knowledgeable met waanabes! The only problem I have reading this forum is the bias for the Carolinas and central Georgia. I understand this is where the majority of the members on this forum live so that's why I am trying my best to learn as much as possible from different forums to try and decipher the maps as to how these storms impact places in and around the southern Tennessee valley as well. Reading this forum helps in a way to get a general idea of what is happening in the way of weather in the extreme southern sections of the U.S. but I hope we can get a few more posters from my region with as much knowledge as you guys. Always a pleasure reading these discussions in here. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 BTW the NE and MA gotta be hating this right now they get totally screwed while many would be in the snow of their lives. At least there won't be any server slowdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12Z gfs Bufkit data gives the following AVL 11.5" starting 06Z Tuesday ending at 03Z Wednesday CLT 6.6" Starting 06Z Tuesday ending 03z Wednesday GSP 4.0" Starting at 03Z Tuesday ending at 03 Wednesday hky 8.1" Starting at 09Z Tuesday ending at 03 Wednesday GSO 12.2" ! Starting at 09Z tuesday ending at 03 Wednesday For more folks go here and choose the SE bufkit data.. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 just for kicks and giggles.... 12z GFS bufkit showing 6.6 inches for Charlotte with snow ratios maxing out toward the end of the storm at 23:1 pretty sweet. Beat me to it Strong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 just for kicks and giggles.... 12z GFS bufkit showing 6.6 inches for Charlotte with snow ratios maxing out toward the end of the storm at 23:1 pretty sweet. Beat me to it Strong.... Bufkit for RDU is insanity. 14"! I gotta stop refreshing this page... I thought after Christmas I'd get a chance to catch my breath, but no dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 All of the information posted here is awesome and I want to say thanks to all of the mets and knowledgeable met waanabes! The only problem I have reading this forum is the bias for the Carolinas and central Georgia. I understand this is where the majority of the members on this forum live so that's why I am trying my best to learn as much as possible from different forums to try and decipher the maps as to how these storms impact places in and around the southern Tennessee valley as well. Reading this forum helps in a way to get a general idea of what is happening in the way of weather in the extreme southern sections of the U.S. but I hope we can get a few more posters from my region with as much knowledge as you guys. Always a pleasure reading these discussions in here. Thanks This really belongs in the off topoic banter thread where I address the bias issue. As more members from tn join, the more discussion there will be about it. A lot of us really don't know tn climo very well which is why there isn't much discussion about it from the ga/carolina group. However, I encourage the ga/carolina posters to try and mention tn when warranted. I'm going to make an effort to do the same. As I said in the other thread, I understand these feelings because I had them for years which is why I'm sympathetic to you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This really belongs in the off topoic banter thread where I address the bias issue. As more members from tn join, the more discussion there will be about it. A lot of us really don't know tn climo very well which is why there isn't much discussion about it from the ga/carolina group. However, I encourage the ga/carolina posters to try and mention tn when warranted. I'm going to make an effort to do the same. As I said in the other thread, I understand these feelings because I had them for years which is why I'm sympathetic to you guys. Don't forget to mention AL either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I believe it hasn't been posted yet, but FWIW: http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html You can see where that ice sets up across parts of SC like what Queencitywx was saying earlier. Pretty awful for those folks I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12Z gfs Bufkit data gives the following AVL 11.5" starting 06Z Tuesday ending at 03Z Wednesday CLT 6.6" Starting 06Z Tuesday ending 03z Wednesday GSP 4.0" Starting at 03Z Tuesday ending at 03 Wednesday hky 8.1" Starting at 09Z Tuesday ending at 03 Wednesday GSO 12.2" ! Starting at 09Z tuesday ending at 03 Wednesday For more folks go here and choose the SE bufkit data.. http://www.meteor.ia...en/bufkit/data/ A few others for the imby fantasy folks ...and with something like this looming, we're all Imbys! Faynam 8.25 inches RDU 14 inches! Both 03 Tues to 03 Wed. Macon 1.5 inches Monday 03 to 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Bufkit for RDU is insanity. 14"! I gotta stop refreshing this page... I thought after Christmas I'd get a chance to catch my breath, but no dice. from 0.73" QPF. that's some really high snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 A few others for the imby fantasy folks ...and with something like this looming, we're all Imbys! Faynam 8.25 inches RDU 14 inches! Both 03 Tues to 03 Wed. Macon 1.5 inches Monday 03 to 09 Sorry to IMBY, but how is RWI and PGV looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeronicaCorningstone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 RAH's latest long-term disco... .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY... FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL DEEPEN AS A POLAR LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA DIGS SOUTH AND THEN ROTATES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE-STARVED VORT MAXIMA IN THE ENSUING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEPLY ENTRENCHING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND PRODUCING VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS BUT NO PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. INITIAL VORT MAX LIFTS OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROF VERY EARLY FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE...WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY LIMITING HIGHS TO 40 TO 45. THE MORNING LOW SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF WITH A DRIER...MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE SETTLING INTO PLACE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...EVEN UNDER OPTIMAL SUNNY CONDITIONS...ARE INDICATIVE OF HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...ALBEIT WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES. REGARDLESS...THE MILLER TYPE A SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IN THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE LATEST GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF (WHICH IS PREFERRED DUE TO CONSISTENCY) TO INITIATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES. HIGHS WILL BE LOATHE TO BUDGE MONDAY IF PRECIP DOES OVERSPREAD THE DAMMING REGION EARLY... AND ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPPER 30S NORTHWEST COULD BE JEOPARDIZED. THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE WITH PRECIP ENDING LATER TUESDAY...BUT WE NEVER BREAK OUT OF THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE REINFORCING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS BOTH TUE AND WED WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWFA...WHILE THE SOUTH COULD BE AS BALMY AS 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeronicaCorningstone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Sorry to IMBY, but how is RWI and PGV looking? BUFKIT is saying 8.3" snow for RWI...not sure about PGV. That's per the 12z GFS. http://www.meteor.ia...s/gfs3_krwi.dat Edit: Not sure about Euro data Sorry bout dat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I believe it hasn't been posted yet, but FWIW: http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html You can see where that ice sets up across parts of SC like what Queencitywx was saying earlier. Pretty awful for those folks I say. Mercy! If that verified, Augusta would get FZR for about 12 hours. A nasty mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 RAH seems to be getting on board for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro ensemble means looking good- mean surface low stays along the northern GOM, little sign of a more northward track. Very good agreement among most members saying the Op is not too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12Z gfs Bufkit data gives the following AVL 11.5" starting 06Z Tuesday ending at 03Z Wednesday CLT 6.6" Starting 06Z Tuesday ending 03z Wednesday GSP 4.0" Starting at 03Z Tuesday ending at 03 Wednesday hky 8.1" Starting at 09Z Tuesday ending at 03 Wednesday GSO 12.2" ! Starting at 09Z tuesday ending at 03 Wednesday For more folks go here and choose the SE bufkit data.. http://www.meteor.ia...en/bufkit/data/ What? I'm confused. 6.6 inches Tuesday into Wednesday? Is that in addition to the Sunday/Monday system? Is that part two or is that total for the beginning of the week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I believe it hasn't been posted yet, but FWIW: http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html You can see where that ice sets up across parts of SC like what Queencitywx was saying earlier. Pretty awful for those folks I say. Wow and that looks like it would be close to a foot for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What? I'm confused. 6.6 inches Tuesday into Wednesday? Is that in addition to the Sunday/Monday system? Is that part two or is that total for the beginning of the week? GFS had system coming in Tuesday and Wed....Euro is saying Monday. Just saying that either way if you buy the GFS or the Euro we are in a good spot...which to be honest is pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What? I'm confused. 6.6 inches Tuesday into Wednesday? Is that in addition to the Sunday/Monday system? Is that part two or is that total for the beginning of the week? No the GFS is slower with the the main event. The Euro has is coming in Sunday night/Monday while the GFS has it coming in Tuesday/Wednesday for the CLT area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 An afternoon update http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/update-on-potential-winter-weather-the-southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Turning over a new leaf, huh? Oooooooookay.... This is 4 pretty good runs for the EURO now. Mr. Bob, now that I am a bit closer to the CHA area than ATL, would you care to take a WAG at the ratios for S TN and N GA? (grain of salt taken well in advance) I am going to plead the fifth on that....3-6 is a great standard response at this stage and I would feel fairly confident in that but as Alan mentioned earlier the Dec 2000 debacle that followed the Jan 2000 greatest storm ever...learned a good lesson from Kocin that year...he was very skeptical of the Dec storm while all of us were weenie-ing about a repeat of 20" of snow again. Climo climo climo; his voice echoes through my head....so I look at this and know that it is extremely rare to get back to back decent snows here (I am sure Larry can help us here) but also note that such a blocking pattern does exist where this is possible.,.so much can go wrong though. I had nearly 6 inches and there was virutally nothing in Knoxville...just 50 - 60 miles as the crow flies from my house. So at 96+ hours and now 40+ years of age...I just kind of prefer to watch and wait...knowing this is a solid chance...I also failed at the Mega Millions last night which I was sure I was going to win.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS had system coming in Tuesday and Wed....Euro is saying Monday. Just saying that either way if you buy the GFS or the Euro we are in a good spot...which to be honest is pretty amazing. Ah, ok thanks. I thought it was the EURO we were talking about. Funny they seem to be each be keying in on two different halves of the system. Maybe we just need to pick one model and double it!!! This is getting fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Saw on the discussion just posted by RaleighWX that the Euro ensembles are a little further north with precip. Good to hear; we have our average here already though. Hopefully it can just expand the precip shield and keep y'all further south in the game without a drastic N trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Saw on the discussion just posted by RaleighWX that the Euro ensembles are a little further north with precip. Good to hear; we have our average here already though. Hopefully it can just expand the precip shield and keep y'all further south in the game without a drastic N trend. At 120, 0.1" line is up to I-40 on ensembles.. OP had it at NC/SC border, so there's a lean from the ensembles toward a further north precip shield. 0 line further north on ensembles compared to operational. Cuts through N GA and upstate SC instead of C GA and lower SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GSP: LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 310 PM WED...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MDL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO TUE NITE...THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW FLOW AREAS THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS THRU MONDAY. THIS LOW DAMPENS OUT BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CARVES OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY TUESDAY THEN THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WED. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THIS UPPER PATTERN. THE SFC RESULT IS ANY LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN A SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY OR MON NITE. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP AT ONSET. THE ECMWF WAS QUITE CONSISTENT FROM ITS 00Z RUN...THE GEFS MEAN IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING AND HPC IS LEANING THIS WAY WITH THE FCST SO I WILL AS WELL. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MDL STILL FORECASTING A MILLER B TYPE SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES AGREE MORE WITH THE ECMWF REGARDING PRECIP ONSET. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THEIR THERMAL STRUCTURE...LENDING CONFIDENCE THAT WE AREA LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW SCENARIO INSTEAD OF A MIXED BAG/ICE SCENARIO IN THE MILLER B GEM. THEREFORE...HAVE SLIGHT CHC POP SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH CHC ACROSS THE WRN CWFA SUN NITE AND ALL AREAS MONDAY AS DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES OVER THE AREA. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE FCST HIGHS. HOWEVER... SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THAT TEMPS WOULD WET BULB BELOW FREEZING EVEN DURING THE DAY. HAVE HIGHEST CHC OF PRECIP TUE NITE AS BOTH MDLS SHOW THE DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW BEGINS MOVING UP THE COAST. THIS WOULD BE WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD FALL. PRECIP CHC TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUE AFTERNOON AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES NORTH. PRECIP ENDS ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TUE NITE AS LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVE NORTH. HOWEVER...NW FLOW SNOW BEGINS AND CONTINUES THRU WED IN THE USUAL AREAS. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO GIVE A DEFINITE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT MDLS ARE CORRECT...THEN A WINTER STORM WARNING LEVEL SNOW WOULD FALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...XCPT MAYBE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Middle Tennessee has been NW of the game this year. What is it going to take! Lots of time for the precip shield to move North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GSP CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTER STORM WILLAFFECT THE AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO TUE NITE Birthday Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Most know where I am already For those who don't, i'm along the madison/oglethorpe county border about 30 miles east-northeast of athens. 270 User(s) are reading this topic 140 members, 119 guests, 11 anonymous users On a related note, What a difference compared to a few years ago when it was only a dozen or two of us. The southeast group has really exploded. Yes we have had some problems with weenies and so forth but we have really been a well behaved group compared to other regions when they are active. Please keep it up folks. But a reminder, please limit the "how much for my backyard" questions. Most of the time you can get a reasonable if not accurate answer to your question if you just read the thread. In fact, most questions you new members have are often answered already. Also, please refrain from the one line posts/comments that don't add to the discussion. There is another thread for that sort of stuff and things like that will be deleted in this thread. Considering what looks to be a active few days here, we will once again likely go into storm mode and be more strict with this stuff. And remember, repeat offenders will be given a timeout. Ahhh...the good ol days While I don't mind a good ice storm...it would be nice to have one of Tony's sleet storms Alot of options are on the table, with alot of model runs to go...this will be fun to watch unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 An afternoon update http://www.examiner....r-the-southeast Great read Allan. I appreciate you covering more than your state and zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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