Stormsfury Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro 2 meter temps at hour 120 show the freezing line all the way into south georgia! Verbatum the euro has about a half a foot falling charleston before it possibly changing over to a very cold rain for a brief period of time. The surface freezing line though remains very close to charleston (just to the northwest and west) so it's possible it turns to FZ to the west of charleston and possibly sleet rather than rain. Regardless, the euro paints a major winter storm for charleston and the coastal areas. Thanks for the PBP!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro 2 meter temps at hour 120 show the freezing line all the way into south georgia! Verbatum the euro has about a half a foot falling charleston before it possibly changing over to a very cold rain for a brief period of time. The surface freezing line though remains very close to charleston (just to the northwest and west) so it's possible it turns to FZ to the west of charleston and possibly sleet rather than rain. Regardless, the euro paints a major winter storm for charleston and the coastal areas. Interesting. The Feb 12 dropped 8" on storm while I got 1" downtown. The marine layer killed me then so I have to keep a lid on my expectations for this one. You're giving me some hope though, looks like it'll be a matter of if we get from freezing rain to rain or some snow, should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I guess tonight and Friday are just the warm-up for next week. Would love to see it snowing Sunday night all the way to Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If i can get anywhere close to the Christmas total I will be in heaven, other family members not so much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Like Burger mentioned, this is the Christmas storm track. but much colder everywhere. Its precip shield is mainly south of 40, but I think its being a little too far south, just my opinion, as most Gulf storms are further north than shown at 3 to 5 days out, we'll see. Regardless, the temps are going to be there, much of the Deep South gets a big one from this, and the qpf and lift is probably maxed from northern louisiana to northern /central Miss-Ala-Ga where the whole section could top 6" with no problem. I woudlnt' be surprised to see southern Arkansas or some spots overa foot with this setup. At 132, the low is stalled off the GA coast, still snowing in Carolinas and GA. having a hard time keeping up with the thread today at work lol. i didnt expect this this winter anyway, the last couple of years the storm track, once established, seemed to keep repeating with the same areas receiving snow, or the awful 33 and rain. this year, the track seems to be a bit better for a lot of us, with the classic se winter storm track. while this one may not follow it exactly, i am getting pretty excited again because i think it will be close to the previous storm (barring anything unforeseen of course. i cant believe i am falling into the trap already for something this far out). if anything close pans out, a lot of us will be on the action again. it would be awesome to get yet another one later in the month but since the se has been in a good spot the last two years, we have a lot of time to make up for the models seem to converge as we approach to a similar track, so lets keep it rolling. could be an interesting weekend, and if this pans out, a winter that might even be better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This would be the 82 event that Robert Mentioned also.. I talked about the 1982 storm last week in my thread/local paper article... that was the one that came a couple days after Banner Elk was -25. Here's the 88 analog for North Carolina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Most of it falls at night with temps in the mid 20's so it'd be a good one Nice. I'll take it. What are the daytime temps during the system. Doesn't it continue for a 24 hour period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I love snow, but hopefully some people don't get so much that they lose power and are unable to watch the Oregon-Auburn game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I love snow, but hopefully some people don't get so much that they lose power and are unable to watch the Oregon-Auburn game. Id rather watch snow fall than sCam Newton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 1.17 QPF for CAE, the majority .45 should all be snow, then our 850's go 0.1 for another .20. The surface stays freezing from what I see during the entire event. Scary situation I'd suspect. Also, during the .45 850s are around -4.0 so the ratios could be a bit higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You are absolutely right. I was looking only through hour 144...a good bit falls after that. Thanks for the correction. not bad for the Triad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think people need to calm down a little bit. This is still a long way away and lots can change. Normally I would agree, and some could get the shaft for sure. But once in a blue moon I get excited this far out- and it is not like we are talking about a forecast 7 days away, when the models agree this closely in the 4-5 day range, watch out. Fingers and toes crossed for sure though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And were back.... 232 User(s) are reading this topic 133 members, 91 guests, 8 anonymous users Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The Cheez is sliding off the cracker...96+hr range and a "Game on folks! " Now I have seen it all! Yeah, this setup must be good with all the Met's somewhat optimistic. Even Wes (usedtobe) from the MA thread is not as pessimistic (realistic could be a better word). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 They have all have come back North west before its all said and done. Too far out to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 1.17 QPF for CAE, the majority .45 should all be snow, then our 850's go 0.1 for another .20. The surface stays freezing from what I see during the entire event. Scary situation I'd suspect. I would hope we wouldn't get into an icing situation and it'd stay mainly all snow for the duration. Would be way too dangerous for folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Normally I would agree, and some could get the shaft for sure. But once in a blue moon I get excited this far out- and it is not like we are talking about a forecast 7 days away, when the models agree this closely in the 4-5 day range, watch out. Fingers and toes crossed for sure though.... The Euro is basically just allowing everyone to see something frozen as the GGEM/GFS not so much. It did this during the Christmas storm and here in CAE, it really didn't verify. We switched over a bit too late to really get any accumulation at all and places further SE did. I love the 1.17 qpf, but I'm not very optimistic it will be in the form of snow yet. God help CAE if that ended up being an ice storm. Infact if an ice storm with over an inch of qpf is gonna hit the CAE area, I'm leaving state. I've lost power for a week here before just from a quarter inch. This place will never be prepared for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 having a hard time keeping up with the thread today at work lol. i didnt expect this this winter anyway, the last couple of years the storm track, once established, seemed to keep repeating with the same areas receiving snow, or the awful 33 and rain. this year, the track seems to be a bit better for a lot of us, with the classic se winter storm track. while this one may not follow it exactly, i am getting pretty excited again because i think it will be close to the previous storm (barring anything unforeseen of course. i cant believe i am falling into the trap already for something this far out). if anything close pans out, a lot of us will be on the action again. it would be awesome to get yet another one later in the month but since the se has been in a good spot the last two years, we have a lot of time to make up for the models seem to converge as we approach to a similar track, so lets keep it rolling. could be an interesting weekend, and if this pans out, a winter that might even be better than last year. Yeah it does seem that way with respect to the tracks. It's funny that we went FOREVER without a classic gulf low and now all of a sudden they show up. It's about freaking time Also what's good about this is we have a cold airmass that comes in behind it for a few days so it will stick around for a little while. Plus with the relatively cold airmass ahead of it, unlike the last few, ground temps should be much colder. So there is a chance that we actually accumulate all that falls..unlike the last few where I know for sure we lost a few inches due to the warm ground temps melting the snow from underneath. Of course this isn't a certainty so I should probably not speak in absolute terms like this so I should add IF into the equation. But man oh man, if this is right, we are going to be sitting pretty my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Very close to a half inch. The half inch contour pretty much fallows the nc/sc line. For the one asking about gso, unfortunately 0.10 or less. Thanks. Good thing im not in college now or I wouldn't be focusing on schoolwork now. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 and 144 hours Mercy! Look at the coastal layer intrusion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just saw the 3 hour canadian maps on Accuwx pro...here's my interpretation: 12z GGEM would be a crippling ice event south of a line from about Union to Lancaster. 1.25"+ of QPF, almost all of it freezing precip. The upstate and on up into the southwest and southern piedmont would probably see a foot or more of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We do have to keep in mind this is 4 to 6 days away so a lot could change and it isn't a slam dunk by any means. History has taught us to keep our expectations and emotions in check but it is really hard to seeing this setup. We have decent model agreement and the pattern dictates any low should take a near perfect track for heavy inland snow. Half of me wants to jump out of my seat the other half says hold on..it's not here just yet lol. Man I am truly hoping atlanta and you get a historic thumping. ditto! we should have learned our lessons the last few winters. however, i have to say that after last winter, and what has transpired so far this winter, against what technically 'should' happen in a nina situation its hard NOT to get really excited. i wouldnt be surprised to see it maybe even drop off and come back at this point (i just hope if it does drop off, it DOES come back lol). but with this setup, the pattern and repeating storms and similar tracks, someone in the se could get a whopper of a winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thanks. Good thing im not in college now or I wouldn't be focusing on schoolwork now. haha I need to make a correction, another 0.10 to 0.25 falls after hour 144 so your totals would likely be in the 0.60 to 0.75 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I love snow, but hopefully some people don't get so much that they lose power and are unable to watch the Oregon-Auburn game. Big War Eagle!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Mercy! Look at the coastal layer intrusion! That map is what is worrying me for ice here in CAE, the soundings keep the 2m well below freezing the whole time and ... sure it could start as snow.. but as the lows cranked up the coast that close.. we would switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I love snow, but hopefully some people don't get so much that they lose power and are unable to watch the Oregon-Auburn game. Just hope it doesn't trend north and put us in the zrain. All cards are still on the table, and an inch or more of zrain you definately don't want if you like electricity. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 AND... there's another one coming the following Friday! Following out to Friday next week http://www.daculaweather.com/gfs_ensemble_precip_06_animated.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just saw the 3 hour canadian maps on Accuwx pro...here's my interpretation: 12z GGEM would be a crippling ice event south of a line from about Union to Lancaster. 1.25"+ of QPF, almost all of it freezing precip. The upstate and on up into the southwest and southern piedmont would probably see a foot or more of snow. You're saying all the way through SC south of those areas? I'm quite sick and its hard for me to focus on bringing maps up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just saw the 3 hour canadian maps on Accuwx pro...here's my interpretation: 12z GGEM would be a crippling ice event south of a line from about Union to Lancaster. 1.25"+ of QPF, almost all of it freezing precip. The upstate and on up into the southwest and southern piedmont would probably see a foot or more of snow. I've always like Canadians. Smart people they are. Wonderfully good in meteorology too I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I need to make a correction, another 0.10 to 0.25 falls after hour 144 so your totals would likely be in the 0.60 to 0.75 range. You beat me to it Lookout... I was going to say add another .1 to .15 to those totals because of the long duration. This run is just too good to be true but man on man I'll be saying an extra long prayer tonight in hopes it pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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