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January 2011 Part 2


MotoWeatherman

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That's fine by me....for the Euro it's odd how from a line of CLT to Gastonia to Shelby we stay out of the heavier QPF during the entire event. Not buying it, but it's just funny how that always plays out arrowheadsmiley.png

Burger you also have to keep in mind that the 850s will be colder in our area that points south and west so even with less QPF we would still do pretty well with higher ratios. I'm loving this run because it allows for such a large portion of the SE crew to get smoked.

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Good disco here guys. The track will likely adjust several times during the next couple of days (and the Euro may even lose the storm briefly) but I would be very surprised if the track does not end up 100 miles or so to the north and with some increase in speed by the Saturday time frame .Looks to be a good hit for most of the deep south from Tx to Ga and then up the coast. As usual somebody will get the sweet spot while others may get the shaft, but that is winter in the SE for you.

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Euro show's snow for 48 hours in many locations.

Totals for selected cities:

AVL .63

HKY .36

CLT .49

RDU .49

ATL .99

CAE 1.17

I would think most of the ratios in NC would be greater than 15:1 given the sfc and 850 temps. so I would estimate the euro is printing out:

AVL 8-12

HKY 5-10

CLT-5-10

RDU 5-10

ATL 10-12

CAE 10-12

I'd take even half of that! Would be awesome if that verified though.

Boy did the board just light up! lol

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Verbatim it looks like a snow to rain back to flurries on the back end. As the system shears out the 850 zero line retreats to the NC/SC line until 0z Wed. But it does look like a decent amount of QPF before the 850 zero moves north. I can't see soundings or other temp layers so it's hard to say.

Cool thanks for the information. I was looking into this to see if this had the marks of a potential icestorm points in between the heavy snows and plain rains sandwiched in between some locations getting a potential sleetstorm to remember. The 850mb low (on wind barbs) has the broad spectrum of it well up and displaced from the SFC low early on up in Northern GA or so.

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What I love about this is that we have very very good models agreement this time vs the xmas storm- the GGEM, UKMET, the vast majority of the GFS ensembles all say a big time prolonged SE frozen event, I think that I may eventually have p-type issues, but with the CAD forecast it would be snow vs sleet and maybe ZR, but I doubt I get no snow here at all. Another great thing I am off the whole event and at worst colud take a very short road trip and see probably over 6 inches within 50 miles. Game on folks!

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Burger you also have to keep in mind that the 850s will be colder in our area that points south and west so even with less QPF we would still do pretty well with higher ratios. I'm loving this run because it allows for such a large portion of the SE crew to get smoked.

Oh yea I was just talking about visibly...not at all worried about QPF, but it's just funny how it always seems to happen on the maps almost like it's programmed to say, "avoid this area!". I just want to see those blue returns right over for once in the long range guitar.gif

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We do have to keep in mind this is 4 to 6 days away so a lot could change and it isn't a slam dunk by any means. History has taught us to keep our expectations and emotions in check but it is really hard to seeing this setup. We have decent model agreement and the pattern dictates any low should take a near perfect track for heavy inland snow. Half of me wants to jump out of my seat the other half says hold on..it's not here just yet lol.

:lmao: Man I am truly hoping atlanta and you get a historic thumping.

I would truly expect one or two of the major models to waffle back to suppression city and then come back by saturday. IF that happens let's keep the cliff diving to a minimum and give it time to work out. Inside 48hrs is the time to go nuts or get worried. Will be a long 3 or 4 days ahead of us that's for sure.

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Thanks for the numbers!!

Updated QPF's thru 12z Wednesday.

>.75" for pretty much all areas of GA north of a line from Columbus to Macon to Jekyll Island. Major...major...event.

>.75" for all of SC and the NC mountains.

>.75" for most of Alabama.

And thank you for the numbers. I had .41" for the X-mas storm. My final measurement was 5" . Assuming a higher ratio as you noted, that amount would push closer to the 8-10" range.

Euro show's snow for 48 hours in many locations.

Totals for selected cities:

AVL .63

HKY .36

CLT .49

RDU .49

ATL .99

CAE 1.17

I would think most of the ratios in NC would be greater than 15:1 given the sfc and 850 temps. so I would estimate the euro is printing out:

AVL 8-12

HKY 5-10

CLT-5-10

RDU 5-10

ATL 10-12

CAE 10-12

and yes, you are correct Bo.

. Will be a long 3 or 4 days ahead of us that's for sure.
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Cool thanks for the information. I was looking into this to see if this had the marks of a potential icestorm points in between the heavy snows and plain rains sandwiched in between some locations getting a potential sleetstorm to remember. The 850mb low (on wind barbs) has the broad spectrum of it well up and displaced from the SFC low early on up in Northern GA or so.

Euro 2 meter temps at hour 120 show the freezing line all the way into south georgia! Verbatum the euro has about a half a foot falling charleston before it possibly changing over to a very cold rain for a brief period of time. The surface freezing line though remains very close to charleston (just to the northwest and west) so it's possible it turns to FZ to the west of charleston and possibly sleet rather than rain. Regardless, the euro paints a major winter storm for charleston and the coastal areas.

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I'd guess that the sleet line probably makes it up to CAE as their 850's go to 1.2C. How much furher north it gets is debatable but I doubt it makes it much north of chester

Given the EURO has a slight warm bias, plus if that much QPF spit out may end up being able to keep that area from mixing problems I think, however, it also appears with such a slow movement of this low being depicted, it looked as if marine layer air was actually being thrown westward back into the Carolinas given the crazy 850mb thermal scheme at 144 hours. Another complex and complicated week ahead yet again.

Ironically in a moderate to strong La Niña. The Christmas storm may have set the stage for some principal storm tracks for this winter until the pattern completely breaks down.

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Oh yea I was just talking about visibly...not at all worried about QPF, but it's just funny how it always seems to happen on the maps almost like it's programmed to say, "avoid this area!". I just want to see those blue returns right over for once in the long range guitar.gif

Burger I'm almost willing to make a wager by the time Saturday rolls around you and I will be in the blue for sure. The pattern is just so ripe I don't see how it wouldn't trend wetter for our area.

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What I love about this is that we have very very good models agreement this time vs the xmas storm- the GGEM, UKMET, the vast majority of the GFS ensembles all say a big time prolonged SE frozen event, I think that I may eventually have p-type issues, but with the CAD forecast it would be snow vs sleet and maybe ZR, but I doubt I get no snow here at all. Another great thing I am off the whole event and at worst colud take a very short road trip and see probably over 6 inches within 50 miles. Game on folks!

:guitar: The Cheez is sliding off the cracker...96+hr range and a "Game on folks! " Now I have seen it all!

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