Amos83 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Like Burger mentioned, this is the Christmas storm track. but much colder everywhere. Its precip shield is mainly south of 40, but I think its being a little too far south, just my opinion, as most Gulf storms are further north than shown at 3 to 5 days out, we'll see. Regardless, the temps are going to be there, much of the Deep South gets a big one from this, and the qpf and lift is probably maxed from northern louisiana to northern /central Miss-Ala-Ga where the whole section could top 6" with no problem. I woudlnt' be surprised to see southern Arkansas or some spots overa foot with this setup. At 132, the low is stalled off the GA coast, still snowing in Carolinas and GA. This run says Happy New Year to the vast majority of the SE Posters on here...... the EURO is keeping the trend going! EDIT: too bad it's only Wednesday and things will change. Maybe this time it will continue to change for the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Don't know how this will turn out, but when heavy precip in central and southern TX and a low in the western gulf, LOOK OUT SOUTHERN APPS! Many times that is the case, but not always:(. Better pray for the "usual" north trend here as far as our area of the southern Apps goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like a sub 1000mb low off the NC coast at 6z Wednesday as the low really cranks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro is painfully dry here. It's not done yet, hopefully we can get in on the action with the 2nd storm coming right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think its being a little too far south, just my opinion, as most Gulf storms are further north than shown at 3 to 5 days out, we'll see. Regardless, the temps are going to be there, much of the Deep South gets a big one from this, and the qpf and lift is probably maxed from northern louisiana to northern /central Miss-Ala-Ga where the whole section could top 6" with no problem. This sums it up perfectly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro is painfully dry here. Mother HP going to dry it out like no one's business after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Just saw the Euro- a snow event that lasts for 2 days and we get maybe a foot? Am I dreaming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Amazing of how the Euro ran this time. Course, it would help with the later runs for support of this, but this is looking to be a good trend from what I can tell. Could we be doing this dance again? It's looking likely, but I remain cautious at this time. Great PBP Foothills and Burger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 By the way guys, 12z bufkit gives KCLT 6".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Updated QPF's thru 12z Wednesday. >.75" for pretty much all areas of GA north of a line from Columbus to Macon to Jekyll Island. Major...major...event. >.75" for all of SC and the NC mountains. >.75" for most of Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Like Burger mentioned, this is the Christmas storm track. but much colder everywhere. Its precip shield is mainly south of 40, but I think its being a little too far south, just my opinion, as most Gulf storms are further north than shown at 3 to 5 days out, we'll see. Regardless, the temps are going to be there, much of the Deep South gets a big one from this, and the qpf and lift is probably maxed from northern louisiana to northern /central Miss-Ala-Ga where the whole section could top 6" with no problem. I woudlnt' be surprised to see southern Arkansas or some spots overa foot with this setup. At 132, the low is stalled off the GA coast, still snowing in Carolinas and GA. Like to hear that, hopefully us coastal folks will make up for the near miss on xmas weekend due to colder temps this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like a sub 1000mb low off the NC coast at 6z Wednesday as the low really cranks up. wow.. yeah it does. All of NC actually does fairly well considering the lack of overrunning initially. 0.5" line up to I-40 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 this is an excellent track and setup, perfect for the Classic 1980's snowstorm that used to happen occassionally. We really havent' had that setup , we almost did last season, but the temps didn't cooperate much on a widespread basis like this. I'd prefer to see it s moisture further north, but there's plenty more time for that. Its hard to see the strong s/w shrink out like that but it is stronger and for a longer trip , once again like the Christmas storm was. The trends have all been great, and Its looking like the questions now will be how much snow. It could be one for the books in places like Jackson Birmingham Atlanta and Columbia, and someone in between will be shoveling lots of sleet. What impresses me also is how slow it is. It isn't one of these that move at 50 or 60 mph. So if the moisture is there, someone is going to get hammered. I wouldn't be shocked to see a 10 inch sweet spot somewhere. It's nice indeed the cold air is plentiful, even for central areas of alabama, ga, and sc. I like also how it has a trough lingering back into the western carolinas too..very similar to the last one which enhanced totals here. But it needs to be said, this is potentially a historic snow for alabama and ms with the euro painting out nearly an inch across the central areas. Overall, you are absolutely right..this is a great setup for something truly special for ms, al, ga, and sc. Even LA gets in on the act as the euro shows one plus inch amounts there and it looks cold enough. To have a storm dump 5 to 10 inches of snow from La to sc would be absolutely incredible. It's hard to say if this will trend north enough to hammer nc but I would wager there is a good chance of that too given how things have played out the last 2 winters. Fwiw..my backyard would probably be somewhere around 0.75 but the 1 inch contour isn't far away Correction, it has another 0.10 to 0.25 after hour 144...so that should put me at an inch or so. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earlwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Just saw the Euro- a snow event that lasts for 2 days and we get maybe a foot? Am I dreaming? Weenie question, but with all this talk from you guys the FFC AFD seems to say no dice. Something about precip being to suppressed or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yea, special thanks to Robert and Burger for the excellent PBP they do. And to QueenCityWx for the totals you always provide. Thanks fellas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No, we need our snow down here. Hopefully we all get it. In my opinion, the Upstate SC area deserves to get slammed more than anybody else. Didn't you guys get like nine inches or something last year? I only got three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Like Burger mentioned, this is the Christmas storm track. but much colder everywhere. Its precip shield is mainly south of 40, but I think its being a little too far south, just my opinion, as most Gulf storms are further north than shown at 3 to 5 days out, we'll see. Regardless, the temps are going to be there, much of the Deep South gets a big one from this, and the qpf and lift is probably maxed from northern louisiana to northern /central Miss-Ala-Ga where the whole section could top 6" with no problem. I woudlnt' be surprised to see southern Arkansas or some spots overa foot with this setup. At 132, the low is stalled off the GA coast, still snowing in Carolinas and GA. This run of the Euro has caused a warm tingly feeling to run up my leg. The Christmas storm track with colder temps is just what is needed for much of GA, AL. I got about 2" Christmas Day, but had to suffer through about four hours of rain. Then snow melted for a couple hours. Could have easily had 5-6"+ with better temps. This has the looks of a long, strong crusher for much of the deep south with longs of cold air behind to keep the snow around awhile. If it could only verify!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Updated QPF's thru 12z Wednesday. >.75" for pretty much all areas of GA north of a line from Columbus to Macon to Jekyll Island. Major...major...event. >.75" for all of SC and the NC mountains. >.75" for most of Alabama. Do you have information on P-types across Coastal SC on hand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Like to hear that, hopefully us coastals will make up for the near miss on xmas weekend due to colder temps Yeah hopefully. I'm not even getting my hopes up for this one though, usually when you rely on temps you get screwed every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Just saw the Euro- a snow event that lasts for 2 days and we get maybe a foot? Am I dreaming? Probably but it will cerntainly be entertaining to watch develop over the next few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 this is an excellent track and setup, perfect for the Classic 1980's snowstorm that used to happen occassionally. We really havent' had that setup , we almost did last season, but the temps didn't cooperate much on a widespread basis like this. I'd prefer to see it s moisture further north, but there's plenty more time for that. Its hard to see the strong s/w shrink out like that but it is stronger and for a longer trip , once again like the Christmas storm was. The trends have all been great, and Its looking like the questions now will be how much snow. It could be one for the books in places like Jackson Birmingham Atlanta and Columbia, and someone in between will be shoveling lots of sleet. Lol, that'd be me! I love that the models I've seen this week have been showing moisture hanging around for days, and impulses in the stream over and over. I've loved hearing you N.C. folks talk about the big repeating hits back in the 60's that your folks talk about up there. Hoping this will be that historic shot you were alluding to a few days back. But the main things is...how about you? Does the Doc hammer Robert this time? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Do you have information on P-types across Coastal SC on hand? Verbatim it looks like a snow to rain back to flurries on the back end. As the system shears out the 850 zero line retreats to the NC/SC line until 0z Wed. But it does look like a decent amount of QPF before the 850 zero moves north. I can't see soundings or other temp layers so it's hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 redevelopment Tuesday over n. Ga and the Carolinas, with stalled lee trough and incoming divergence. This is going to be biggest, most widespread snowstorm across the South east since 1988, maybe 1982. gotta run. I talked about the 1982 storm last week in my thread/local paper article... that was the one that came a couple days after Banner Elk was -25. Here's the 88 analog for North Carolina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Just saw light snow for 5 min in Clyde, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 redevelopment Tuesday over n. Ga and the Carolinas, with stalled lee trough and incoming divergence. This is going to be biggest, most widespread snowstorm across the South east since 1988, maybe 1982. gotta run. We do have to keep in mind this is 4 to 6 days away so a lot could change and it isn't a slam dunk by any means. History has taught us to keep our expectations and emotions in check but it is really hard to seeing this setup. We have decent model agreement and the pattern dictates any low should take a near perfect track for heavy inland snow. Half of me wants to jump out of my seat the other half says hold on..it's not here just yet lol. Just saw the Euro- a snow event that lasts for 2 days and we get maybe a foot? Am I dreaming? Man I am truly hoping atlanta and you get a historic thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ok SE, been lurking for the last several days in this thread, but the EURO now has my complete attention! We got something to look at now. No promises, but perhaps some alignment will begin to settle-in for early next week forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'd guess that the sleet line probably makes it up to CAE as their 850's go to 1.2C. How much furher north it gets is debatable but I doubt it makes it much north of chester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 By the way guys, 12z bufkit gives KCLT 6".. That's fine by me....for the Euro it's odd how from a line of CLT to Gastonia to Shelby we stay out of the heavier QPF during the entire event. Not buying it, but it's just funny how that always plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro show's snow for 48 hours in many locations. Totals for selected cities: AVL .63 HKY .36 CLT .49 RDU .49 ATL .99 CAE 1.17 I would think most of the ratios in NC would be greater than 15:1 given the sfc and 850 temps. so I would estimate the euro is printing out: AVL 8-12 HKY 5-10 CLT-5-10 RDU 5-10 ATL 10-12 CAE 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Here is the EURO 850/slp at 120 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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