MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 New thread....keep it going.... First up is Wednesday afternoon/night potential for far N GA and parts of TN/SC/NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's a pity N GA gets nailed and then the moisture sneaks away before central NC can get anything, but they're due to be in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Posted from Larry in the other thread...good info.... - KATL hasn't had a 6"+ snow since the great 3/24/1983 storm's 7.9" (1.71" liquid..so very wet snow). - As has been stated, most of ATL area had 6"+ S in the 3/1993 blizzard due to changing to snow earlier. - KATL just missed it with 5" of S 1/18/1992 from 0.53" liquid. - The 3/1/2009 storm had enough liquid equiv. (0.87") for 6"+ but it was way too wet a snow and they got 4.2". - The great 1/7/1988 sleet storm yielded 4.2" of mainly IP from 0.82" liquid. So, this was equivalent to ~8" of snow. 4.2" of IP is easily more impressive than 6" of snow as far as staying power is concerned. Tony's favorite kind of wx. - 1/22/1987 just missed as it was just a little too warm. They got 3.6" of snow from a storm total liquid amount of 1.14". I recalled there being flash flood warnings for heavy rain in the immediate SE burbs while it was snowing heavlily in the NW burbs! I got nearly 5" of S in Doraville. - "Snowjam '82" produced a solid 7" of S/IP 1/12-14 (from 0.91" liquid) that didn't budge for days! That was an incredible storm. - The Great 2/17-18/1979 sleetstorm produced a solid 4.2" of nearly pure IP (another Tony special) from a whopping 1.53": liquid. another incredible storm - So, the period 1979-1993 was an incredible period for KATL S/IP lovers. This was the snowiest/sleetiest period for KATL since the late 1800's/early 1900's! However, after the 2/1979 major ZR, the ATL area didn't have another MAJOR ZR storm until 1/2000! So, all KATL major storms were S/IP from the 2/1979 IP storm through the 3/1993 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Good luck to all that could get some snow w/ the Wednesday system. It would do a lot of good for the board. Things were starting to get a little testy tonight. Hopefully Dawson has the mojo working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Posted from Larry in the other thread...good info.... - KATL hasn't had a 6"+ snow since the great 3/24/1983 storm's 7.9" (1.71" liquid..so very wet snow). - As has been stated, most of ATL area had 6"+ S in the 3/1993 blizzard due to changing to snow earlier. - KATL just missed it with 5" of S 1/18/1992 from 0.53" liquid. - The 3/1/2009 storm had enough liquid equiv. (0.87") for 6"+ but it was way too wet a snow and they got 4.2". - The great 1/7/1988 sleet storm yielded 4.2" of mainly IP from 0.82" liquid. So, this was equivalent to ~8" of snow. 4.2" of IP is easily more impressive than 6" of snow as far as staying power is concerned. Tony's favorite kind of wx. - 1/22/1987 just missed as it was just a little too warm. They got 3.6" of snow from a storm total liquid amount of 1.14". I recalled there being flash flood warnings for heavy rain in the immediate SE burbs while it was snowing heavlily in the NW burbs! I got nearly 5" of S in Doraville. - "Snowjam '82" produced a solid 7" of S/IP 1/12-14 (from 0.91" liquid) that didn't budge for days! That was an incredible storm. - The Great 2/17-18/1979 sleetstorm produced a solid 4.2" of nearly pure IP (another Tony special) from a whopping 1.53": liquid. another incredible storm - So, the period 1979-1993 was an incredible period for KATL S/IP lovers. This was the snowiest/sleetiest period for KATL since the late 1800's/early 1900's! However, after the 2/1979 major ZR, the ATL area didn't have another MAJOR ZR storm until 1/2000! So, all KATL major storms were S/IP from the 2/1979 IP storm through the 3/1993 blizzard. Larry that sleet storm of 88 was amazing. I lived south of Atlanta at the time and the storm happened on a Thursday and I worked at a big box retailer and they were shut down for 3 days which is very usual in these parts of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Posted from Larry in the other thread...good info.... - So, the period 1979-1993 was an incredible period for KATL S/IP lovers. This was the snowiest/sleetiest period for KATL since the late 1800's/early 1900's! However, after the 2/1979 major ZR, the ATL area didn't have another MAJOR ZR storm until 1/2000! So, all KATL major storms were S/IP from the 2/1979 IP storm through the 3/1993 blizzard. i was about to repost here as well since it was a really good post! i think why some of us, at least, got spoiled as we grew up here during the really good period as for wed., i have been paying attention but unable to figure it out since it looks so close, yet again. i am hopeful we see at least something, and the past winter and a half lady luck seems to have been on our side a couple of times. it is interesting to see the qpf increasing as we get closer similar to the other storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I have a couple of suggestions that might make this thread easier to follow: 1) Since the upcoming pattern appears fraught with several opportunities for wintry weather, when referencing a particular threat, attach a date or day to it so that everyone can align the comments with the particular threat. 2) Let's put obs into a separate obs thread. 3) Let's keep banter in the banter thread, unless said banter is particularly funny or clever. I believe that will help everyone follow the myriad of threats and allow for a cleaner thread. Feel free to ignore any or all of this, though. Now bring the ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Posted from Larry in the other thread...good info.... - KATL hasn't had a 6"+ snow since the great 3/24/1983 storm's 7.9" (1.71" liquid..so very wet snow). - As has been stated, most of ATL area had 6"+ S in the 3/1993 blizzard due to changing to snow earlier. - KATL just missed it with 5" of S 1/18/1992 from 0.53" liquid. - The 3/1/2009 storm had enough liquid equiv. (0.87") for 6"+ but it was way too wet a snow and they got 4.2". - The great 1/7/1988 sleet storm yielded 4.2" of mainly IP from 0.82" liquid. So, this was equivalent to ~8" of snow. 4.2" of IP is easily more impressive than 6" of snow as far as staying power is concerned. Tony's favorite kind of wx. - 1/22/1987 just missed as it was just a little too warm. They got 3.6" of snow from a storm total liquid amount of 1.14". I recalled there being flash flood warnings for heavy rain in the immediate SE burbs while it was snowing heavlily in the NW burbs! I got nearly 5" of S in Doraville. - "Snowjam '82" produced a solid 7" of S/IP 1/12-14 (from 0.91" liquid) that didn't budge for days! That was an incredible storm. - The Great 2/17-18/1979 sleetstorm produced a solid 4.2" of nearly pure IP (another Tony special) from a whopping 1.53": liquid. another incredible storm - So, the period 1979-1993 was an incredible period for KATL S/IP lovers. This was the snowiest/sleetiest period for KATL since the late 1800's/early 1900's! However, after the 2/1979 major ZR, the ATL area didn't have another MAJOR ZR storm until 1/2000! So, all KATL major storms were S/IP from the 2/1979 IP storm through the 3/1993 blizzard. Amazing that 2 of the biggest snowstorms in the Atlanta area in the last 30 years occurred after March 10th !! That's just unbelievable to get 8 inches of snow at the end of March in Atlanta !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Does this deal tomorrow night share any similarities to the surprise storm in January 2008. We had a good 1.5" before WAA won over. I know im too far south but the setup seems familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Larry that sleet storm of 88 was amazing. I lived south of Atlanta at the time and the storm happened on a Thursday and I worked at a big box retailer and they were shut down for 3 days which is very usual in these parts of the world. The roads were horrible in many places for several days after due to there having been a near 96 hour period of 32 F or lower and the precip. having been mainly IP. In my opinion, the 4.2" mainly IP storms of 2/1988 and 2/1979 far exceeded the effects of a typical 6" snowstorm as far as driving and overall staying power are concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Of course my thicknesses are 34 and raining here. Why am I not surprised. Oh well, I am pulling for N GA crowd as this has just gotten on the field in the last model runs, so I hope you guys get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'll be looking north through my binoculars for the snow!! I think I'm a smidge to far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You can see the moisture starting to flow http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_southeast_wide_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i was about to repost here as well since it was a really good post! i think why some of us, at least, got spoiled as we grew up here during the really good period However, we may be in the midst of a new golden era for pure snow (3/09-12/10) at least in N GA and nearby areas! Perhaps this is the case since we appear to be entering a new grand minimum for sunspots....lowest in ~200 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 0z gfs looks to keep the heaviest precip down in south Ga....Temps also look warm. EDIT: Sorry, this is for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Of course my thicknesses are 34 and raining here. Why am I not surprised. Oh well, I am pulling for N GA crowd as this has just gotten on the field in the last model runs, so I hope you guys get it. Aren't you in N GA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 0z gfs looks to keep the heaviest precip down in south Ga....Temps also look warm. EDIT: Sorry, this is for tomorrow night. Was just looking at that. GFS is warmer and is usually more accurate than the NAM. At this point likely P-TYPE in GA would be cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Amazing that 2 of the biggest snowstorms in the Atlanta area in the last 30 years occurred after March 10th !! That's just unbelievable to get 8 inches of snow at the end of March in Atlanta !! March overall has been a major overachiever in ATL since 1980 vs. longterm climo (since the late 1800's) with the multiinch snows of 3/1980, 3/1983, 3/1993, and 3/2009. FEB was a major underachiever 1980-2009. Hopefully, 2/2010 is the start of a new trend for FEB. The late 1800's/early 1900's had more S in FEB than in any other month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 March overall has been a major overachiever in ATL since 1980 vs. longterm climo (since the late 1800's) with the multiinch snows of 3/1980, 3/1983, 3/1993, and 3/2009. It also seems like if Atlanta gets any wintry precip in March, it's almost always snow. I can't think of any sleet or icestorms in March in Atlanta, and even in February it seems like over the last 15-20 I can't remember many sleet or icestorms. Seems like Feb and March Atlanta is more likely to get snow than freezing rain or sleet, at least over the last 20 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the OO z GFS seems to lose precip atter 18 hurs, but the latest RUC has it pretty substantial in Ga and the Caroinas, esp. around the Upstate to sw NC where its just barely cold enough to snow. So, the saga thickens. I still don't have a lot of hope here for much qpf , even if temps work out, but based on RUC and radar trends, the northern parts of GA stand a very good shot at some nice fluffy flakes. Also parts of Tenn and NC could get some minor accum. out of this, but the more important thing may be the visual impact of seeing fluffy flakes, not much accumulations. Howeve as I said earlier, these things are sneaky. Watch the radars tomorrow as well as RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Aren't you in N GA ? He's down the street from me! 5-7 miles east of Brisco Field near Lawrenceville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It also seems like if Atlanta gets any wintry precip in March, it's almost always snow. I can't think of any sleet or icestorms in March in Atlanta, and even in February it seems like over the last 15-20 I can't remember many sleet or icestorms. Seems like Feb and March Atlanta is more likely to get snow than freezing rain or sleet, at least over the last 20 years or so. Good memory. My take on that is that the atmosphere from 850 mb up tends to be a bit colder in FEB/MAR GA storms on average in relation to the surface vs. earlier winter storms. Actually I think that it is coldest in FEB in general due to a lag even though the coldest at the surface is in JAN in GA. I know that significant snows in SAV have been most frequent in FEB. The biggest "problem" with some FEB and MAR storms is that the snow is often very wet and, therefore, doesn't accumulate very efficiently in these cases. However, that wasn't a problem in 3/1993 or 3/1980 due to VERY cold surface temp.'s! I know of no major mainly IP storms in MAR. However, I do know of several major MAR ZR's (the last one in 1971). Believe it or not, there was one as late as 3/25 (the one in 1971)!!! This 3/25/1971 major ZR was a major snow in NE GA. Going back to the late 1800's, the highest concentration of major ZR's in ATL has been from late Dec. to early Feb. Jan. has easily been the main major ZR month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 For some reason I can't save this map to paste on here... but the 00Z Nam shows no accumulation according to this map...North Georgia/SE Tennessee 00Z NAM snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 0 UTC NAM snowfall forecast totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the GFS has a good upslope event for Tn/NC on Friday into Saturday.. As for the Tex. system, its not as healthy lookng as the euro but its colder overall for Tenn.Valley and Deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hmmm... The GFS looks like it might be getting interesting for the weekend storm our low is just off the coast of LA and heading east....hopefully it won't get suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 the GFS has a good upslope event for Tn/NC on Friday into Saturday.. As for the Tex. system, its not as healthy lookng as the euro but its colder overall for Tenn.Valley and Deep south. And super suppressed. Very different from 12z and 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 lolz got to love it, another run another totally different solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the colder air is prevailing on this run, further west , like the Euro and Phil mentioned. the only thing is the southern stream is weaker, which I have doubts about compared to the better resolution EURO. This could be overrunning snow for ATL and northern Deep South fairly quickly, adjusting for the biases of the GFS. By Sunday midday at 114 its supressed in southern Miss. and the precip shield doesnt' get far north. It may be correct, but I love the look , again adjusting for biases and errors the GFS has at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And super suppressed. Very different from 12z and 18z runs. Yep it's starting to head towards Orlando at 114....WTF with these huge swings every run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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