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Atlantic Tropical Action 2010


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The above having been said...

Australia has a weird double max in terms of intense cyclone landfalls-- with the first one occurring early in the season, in December. Some of the most memorable cyclones to hit Australia-- for example, Tracy 1974 and Joan 1975-- were December systems. January sees a relative lull, and then a second max occurs in February/March.

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Hi, HM! Please elaborate here: http://www.americanw...dpost__p__19251

I'd love to see you posting in the Aussie Cyclone thread this year. :)

Well, I am predicting an MJO wave for early-mid December that will propagate through the Indian Ocean and Indonesia. Perhaps, initially, the response will be in the S IO but ultimately I think the S PAC will get in on the action mid or even late Dec. Think back to previous La Niña winters and some of them got started early out here...which makes sense. The warm pool has consolidated nicely and is stronger than normal, given the stronger trades have pushed the warmest water here. If the MJO wave fails, there still will be the Walker-induced convection from ENSO that could potentially get something going.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The convective mass and vorticity have already shifted westward from near the west coast of Colombia to western Panama in 24 hours. The upper flow favors a continued westward trajectory. All of the models aside from the GFS show the main area of vorticity shifting west into the EPac within 48 hours, so I don't see much hope for this one in the Atlantic. There will be some vorticity left behind near Colombia, but probably too close to land to do much.

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