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Atlantic Tropical Action 2010


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000

NOUS42 KNHC 141530

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1030 AM EST SUN 14 NOVEMBER 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010

TCPOD NUMBER.....10-166

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA -- SW CARIBBEAN

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

A. 15/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST

C. 15/1315Z

D. 12.5N AND 79.0W

E. 15/1700-2300Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 24 HRLY FIXES AT 16/1800Z

IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.

WVW

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Yeah the system doesn't look bad at all in terms of the way the broad circulation is arcing at the moment Josh but I just feel its probably got a little too much to do to become a system, though obviously can't rule out something weak developing yet...

Think this season is just about done now myself...but my gosh the 8-15 to 11-10 period has been utterly exceptional and can compare to 2005 and 1969 for that periods!

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Yeah the system doesn't look bad at all in terms of the way the broad circulation is arcing at the moment Josh but I just feel its probably got a little too much to do to become a system, though obviously can't rule out something weak developing yet...

Think this season is just about done now myself...but my gosh the 8-15 to 11-10 period has been utterly exceptional and can compare to 2005 and 1969 for that periods!

in no way can it compare to 1969 or 2005. you do a grave dis service to those great seasons.

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Yeah the system doesn't look bad at all in terms of the way the broad circulation is arcing at the moment Josh but I just feel its probably got a little too much to do to become a system, though obviously can't rule out something weak developing yet...

Think this season is just about done now myself...but my gosh the 8-15 to 11-10 period has been utterly exceptional and can compare to 2005 and 1969 for that periods!

I was really surprised at how this season turned around and exploded, late July and early August I was really convinced this season was going to be a joke.
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False, it compares very closely number wise.

2005 had 27 named storms as compared to 2010 had 19 named storms. So, in reality the #s do not come close to 2005. In 2005 you had a handful that also effected the USA ..but 2010 we were seriously lacking in action or landfalls in the USA..

1969 would be a more favorable year for comparison sake but you will find that 2010 outdid 1969 when it came to named storms..

1969 though had more US landfalls....

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2005 had 27 named storms as compared to 2010 had 19 named storms. So, in reality the #s do not come close to 2005. In 2005 you had a handful that also effected the USA ..but 2010 we were seriously lacking in action or landfalls in the USA..

1969 would be a more favorable year for comparison sake but you will find that 2010 outdid 1969 when it came to named storms..

1969 though had more US landfalls....

Thats all true but 69, 05, and 2010 are all hyperactive seasons, so to say that they dont compare due to landfall characteristics is proposterous.:gun_bandana:

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this season still cant be mentioned in the same breath with 2005.

Why? Cause 5 majors didn't slam into the US. 2010 turned out every much as active...if not more...than predicted. Ugly year for most of the caribbean.

With regards to the united states the Azores high (located near Africa and in the Far Eastern Atlantic) was much much stronger than the Bermuda ridge to the west. The ridge over the SE US and the Azores ridge in the East Atlantic created a weakness inbetween which meant any storm was more likely bound for Bermuda, and not the US. As the season grew on, the Azores ridge got stronger, thus forcing the tracks closer, but still not directly at the US. Early summer setup was impressive with SST, but a building Nina is a lot different than an existing Nina going into summer. Note the quiet start then rapid mid-late season as nina emerged. Simply put, the Atlantic was still very much in a Nino state in MAY-JUNE and early July with weakening shear as we entered the heart of the season.

2011 looks likes like another active season.

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Why? Cause 5 majors didn't slam into the US. 2010 turned out every much as active...if not more...than predicted. Ugly year for most of the caribbean.

With regards to the united states the Azores high (located near Africa and in the Far Eastern Atlantic) was much much stronger than the Bermuda ridge to the west. The ridge over the SE US and the Azores ridge in the East Atlantic created a weakness inbetween which meant any storm was more likely bound for Bermuda, and not the US. As the season grew on, the Azores ridge got stronger, thus forcing the tracks closer, but still not directly at the US. Early summer setup was impressive with SST, but a building Nina is a lot different than an existing Nina going into summer. Note the quiet start then rapid mid-late season as nina emerged. Simply put, the Atlantic was still very much in a Nino state in MAY-JUNE and early July with weakening shear as we entered the heart of the season.

2011 looks likes like another active season.

Meh, I have to agree, that 2010 cannot be compared with 2005. So much more power in 2005. Really a very different season.

Obviously 2010 was very active, and we had that amazing burst of activity that I imagine competes with some records, which ever way you slice it. 1995 was a great analog.

I should mention also, that the season's overall activity plus the time and magnitude of the burst of activity was very well predicted by a number of people.

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RECON is scheduled to take look tomorrow...

000

NOUS42 KNHC 181500

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1000 AM EST THU 18 NOVEMBER 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010

TCPOD NUMBER.....10-170

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA -- WEATERN CARIBBEAN

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

A. 19/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST

C. 19/1430Z

D. 17.0N AND 87.0W

E. 19/1700-2300Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

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We have a Lemon...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

CENTERED NORTH OF HONDURAS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY

HIGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR

DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA BY LATE TOMORROW...LIMITING THE

OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...

20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY

HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

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