Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 What a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I'm waiting for my prize! The prize is knowledge of who I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 The prize is knowledge of who I am -.- I'd like a different prize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 The NHC has lowered the development probability to 30%-- however, I notice this morning that the convection is showing a broad, arcing pattern-- a good sign: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 000 NOUS42 KNHC 141530 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1030 AM EST SUN 14 NOVEMBER 2010 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010 TCPOD NUMBER.....10-166 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA -- SW CARIBBEAN FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 15/1800Z B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST C. 15/1315Z D. 12.5N AND 79.0W E. 15/1700-2300Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 24 HRLY FIXES AT 16/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE. NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE. WVW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Yeah the system doesn't look bad at all in terms of the way the broad circulation is arcing at the moment Josh but I just feel its probably got a little too much to do to become a system, though obviously can't rule out something weak developing yet... Think this season is just about done now myself...but my gosh the 8-15 to 11-10 period has been utterly exceptional and can compare to 2005 and 1969 for that periods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Yeah the system doesn't look bad at all in terms of the way the broad circulation is arcing at the moment Josh but I just feel its probably got a little too much to do to become a system, though obviously can't rule out something weak developing yet... Think this season is just about done now myself...but my gosh the 8-15 to 11-10 period has been utterly exceptional and can compare to 2005 and 1969 for that periods! in no way can it compare to 1969 or 2005. you do a grave dis service to those great seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 in no way can it compare to 1969 or 2005. False, it compares very closely number wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 False, it compares very closely number wise. this season still cant be mentioned in the same breath with 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OpieStorm Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Yeah the system doesn't look bad at all in terms of the way the broad circulation is arcing at the moment Josh but I just feel its probably got a little too much to do to become a system, though obviously can't rule out something weak developing yet... Think this season is just about done now myself...but my gosh the 8-15 to 11-10 period has been utterly exceptional and can compare to 2005 and 1969 for that periods! I was really surprised at how this season turned around and exploded, late July and early August I was really convinced this season was going to be a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 this season still cant be mentioned in the same breath with 2005. Go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I'm calling it. If Virginie forms, it will be the last storm of 2010. If it isn't, i'm eating my shoe. And yes, the shoe thing is an overdone joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Cause thee weren't enough boring cyclones already this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 False, it compares very closely number wise. 2005 had 27 named storms as compared to 2010 had 19 named storms. So, in reality the #s do not come close to 2005. In 2005 you had a handful that also effected the USA ..but 2010 we were seriously lacking in action or landfalls in the USA.. 1969 would be a more favorable year for comparison sake but you will find that 2010 outdid 1969 when it came to named storms.. 1969 though had more US landfalls.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 2005 had 27 named storms as compared to 2010 had 19 named storms. So, in reality the #s do not come close to 2005. In 2005 you had a handful that also effected the USA ..but 2010 we were seriously lacking in action or landfalls in the USA.. 1969 would be a more favorable year for comparison sake but you will find that 2010 outdid 1969 when it came to named storms.. 1969 though had more US landfalls.... Thats all true but 69, 05, and 2010 are all hyperactive seasons, so to say that they dont compare due to landfall characteristics is proposterous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 15, 2010 Author Share Posted November 15, 2010 Invest 94L looks like crap this evening. The convection has really thinned out, and the NHC bas demoted it to Lemon status. Also, the SHIPS has really backed off since yesterday. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 this season still cant be mentioned in the same breath with 2005. Why? Cause 5 majors didn't slam into the US. 2010 turned out every much as active...if not more...than predicted. Ugly year for most of the caribbean. With regards to the united states the Azores high (located near Africa and in the Far Eastern Atlantic) was much much stronger than the Bermuda ridge to the west. The ridge over the SE US and the Azores ridge in the East Atlantic created a weakness inbetween which meant any storm was more likely bound for Bermuda, and not the US. As the season grew on, the Azores ridge got stronger, thus forcing the tracks closer, but still not directly at the US. Early summer setup was impressive with SST, but a building Nina is a lot different than an existing Nina going into summer. Note the quiet start then rapid mid-late season as nina emerged. Simply put, the Atlantic was still very much in a Nino state in MAY-JUNE and early July with weakening shear as we entered the heart of the season. 2011 looks likes like another active season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 2011 looks likes like another active season Unless Merapi goes all Pinatubo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Unless Merapi goes all Pinatubo. Nah...1815 and 1816 were active years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Why? Cause 5 majors didn't slam into the US. 2010 turned out every much as active...if not more...than predicted. Ugly year for most of the caribbean. With regards to the united states the Azores high (located near Africa and in the Far Eastern Atlantic) was much much stronger than the Bermuda ridge to the west. The ridge over the SE US and the Azores ridge in the East Atlantic created a weakness inbetween which meant any storm was more likely bound for Bermuda, and not the US. As the season grew on, the Azores ridge got stronger, thus forcing the tracks closer, but still not directly at the US. Early summer setup was impressive with SST, but a building Nina is a lot different than an existing Nina going into summer. Note the quiet start then rapid mid-late season as nina emerged. Simply put, the Atlantic was still very much in a Nino state in MAY-JUNE and early July with weakening shear as we entered the heart of the season. 2011 looks likes like another active season. Meh, I have to agree, that 2010 cannot be compared with 2005. So much more power in 2005. Really a very different season. Obviously 2010 was very active, and we had that amazing burst of activity that I imagine competes with some records, which ever way you slice it. 1995 was a great analog. I should mention also, that the season's overall activity plus the time and magnitude of the burst of activity was very well predicted by a number of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 There's a lemon way out in the EPAC. It's lame and won't develop, but since it's the first in a very long while, it seemed worth mentioning. (It didn't seem warranted to start an EPAC thread in mid-November-- thus I'm mentioning it here.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 JB predicts last weeks area will get re-lemonized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 That does look kind of lemony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Last Atlantic fruit of 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 RECON is scheduled to take look tomorrow... 000 NOUS42 KNHC 181500 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1000 AM EST THU 18 NOVEMBER 2010 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010 TCPOD NUMBER.....10-170 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA -- WEATERN CARIBBEAN FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 19/1800Z B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST C. 19/1430Z D. 17.0N AND 87.0W E. 19/1700-2300Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 One last system, I'd settle for a depression. Cold ENSOs and Texas winters. I'm not in it for a hard freeze with clear blue skies. This winter will be dull. One last taste of Summer. Again, Thank goodness for Australia, and 4 months to Texas severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Recon and it isn't even a lemon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 If this thing were over water longer, it could develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 We have a Lemon... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF HONDURAS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA BY LATE TOMORROW...LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... 20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Too bad it has no room or time. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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