hurricaneman Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 It looks like this might become something soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 12, 2010 Author Share Posted November 12, 2010 On 11/12/2010 at 6:55 PM, hurricaneman said: It looks like this might become something soon Hey, what's up? Nice to see you here. Yeah, this one is showing real promise. I'm kind of excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 if tomas is any indication, the models are going to struggle with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Wow a possible storm in late November.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Would Josh chase a high end TS or low end hurricane, knowing it was the last of 2010? 69 knots per SHIPS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Will hurricane season ever end? Oh and hi everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 12, 2010 Author Share Posted November 12, 2010 On 11/12/2010 at 7:19 PM, Ed Mahmoud said: Would Josh chase a high end TS or low end hurricane, knowing it was the last of 2010? 69 knots per SHIPS... I would chase an 80-kt deal in BZ. That would be kind of fun. On 11/12/2010 at 7:51 PM, Brent said: Will hurricane season ever end? Oh and hi everyone. Hey, Brent-- glad you found your way over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 IF the forecast contest carries over.. I want this to be our only storm of this month! And only one more over that if we some how squeeze another system out this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Meet Virginie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Seems like the upper level shear should gradually get better as 20-25 kt of southerly 200 mb flow gradually should become lighter and more easterly, at least per GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 On 11/12/2010 at 10:11 PM, wxsmwhrms said: Seems like the upper level shear should gradually get better as 20-25 kt of southerly 200 mb flow gradually should become lighter and more easterly, at least per GFS. Welcome! You need your Red Tag back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 hey peeps. seems like i leave for a while and all hell breaks loose with our computer boards Anyways, hope the next one isn't a dud, but anything this late in the season is just gravy. My goal is to get a 13th hurricane, as that would really make this year stand out. Upper-level winds look great, and the moisture fields are adequate so far south. Just leave it alone for a while and all should be ok...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 On 11/12/2010 at 10:11 PM, wxsmwhrms said: Seems like the upper level shear should gradually get better as 20-25 kt of southerly 200 mb flow gradually should become lighter and more easterly, at least per GFS. On 11/13/2010 at 12:41 AM, gil888 said: hey peeps. seems like i leave for a while and all hell breaks loose with our computer boards Anyways, hope the next one isn't a dud, but anything this late in the season is just gravy. My goal is to get a 13th hurricane, as that would really make this year stand out. Upper-level winds look great, and the moisture fields are adequate so far south. Just leave it alone for a while and all should be ok...... Nice to see two of my favorite red taggers here-- welcome! Which way do you guys think the system is headed. The models are a bit all "over the place". The SHIPS makes it a 'cane by Day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 On 11/13/2010 at 12:44 AM, HurricaneJosh said: Nice to see two of my favorite red taggers here-- welcome! Which way do you guys think the system is headed. The models are a bit all "over the place". The SHIPS makes it a 'cane by Day 3. Slow brew...with a consolidation farther NW...probably another NI/HN close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 On 11/13/2010 at 1:15 AM, wxmx said: Slow brew...with a consolidation farther NW...probably another NI/HN close call. Grrrr. 'Cane for BZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 It looks OK this evening-- it's definitely a robust disturbance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Give it 3-4 days. Hopefully it moves slowly enough to avoid Central America before developing. Jorge is spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 00z tropical models Conditions appear pretty favorable for some development down there before tracking west into CA or Belize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidniteEscape Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Nice to see the Tropical threads and are still alive and well. I see that 94L is also alive and well this evening as deep convection continues to increase and consolidate a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 On 11/13/2010 at 4:04 AM, am19psu said: Give it 3-4 days. Hopefully it moves slowly enough to avoid Central America before developing. Jorge is spot on. OK. I promise not to harass you at the crack o' dawn about it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 On 11/13/2010 at 4:48 AM, Eyewall2005 said: 00z tropical models Conditions appear pretty favorable for some development down there before tracking west into CA or Belize. Hi, Adrian! On 11/13/2010 at 5:04 AM, MidniteEscape said: Nice to see the Tropical threads and are still alive and well. I see that 94L is also alive and well this evening as deep convection continues to increase and consolidate a bit. Omg, how the heck have you been, dude?? So great to see you. It's been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidniteEscape Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Omg, how the heck have you been, dude?? So great to see you. It's been a while. Hey Josh!...Doing just fine, and hope you are as well. 2011 is looking good for me so far as I completed a LOT of projects I had scheduled this year. We are still not done with 2010, maybe one last chance at something worthwhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 On 11/13/2010 at 5:32 AM, MidniteEscape said: We are still not done with 2010, maybe one last chance at something worthwhile! Yep-- I'm embarrassed to say I'm kind of hoping something comes of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Status quo with the SW-Caribbean Mandarin as of 1 am EST-- still 30% with little change in organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Hey josh! Hope your doing ok its been one heck of a tropical season across the atlantic this year with plenty to track. Fortunately the U.S. was spared once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Euro suggests maybe some minor development but the low moves too far north and is shredded by the front/westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 On 11/13/2010 at 6:23 AM, Eyewall2005 said: Hey josh! Hope your doing ok its been one heck of a tropical season across the atlantic this year with plenty to track. Fortunately the U.S. was spared once again. Hey, Adrian-- yeah, it was quite a season. Given how many 'canes there were, it's pretty amazing the USA got off so easy. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 On 11/13/2010 at 6:41 AM, Cheeznado said: Euro suggests maybe some minor development but the low moves too far north and is shredded by the front/westerlies. Ah, there you are! Nice to see you here. The models are looking pretty good, showing a Matthew/Richard type track close to NI/HN, with perhaps a BZ threat down the road. SHIPS brings it up to ~70 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Canadian and NOGAPS have a weakish system making landfall in the northern Nicaragua vicinity in about 4-5 days. I think this has a shot to at least become a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 On 11/13/2010 at 6:52 AM, Cheeznado said: Canadian and NOGAPS have a weakish system making landfall in the northern Nicaragua vicinity in about 4-5 days. I think this has a shot to at least become a TS. Screw that-- I want an 85-kt 'cane into BZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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