Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 RaleighWX still sounds optimistic with his latest update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 RAH is either very cautious or they just don't believe the hype. THUS...WHILE LIKELIHOOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...TOO MANY UNKNOWNS (TIMING, DRYNESS OF SUBCLOUD LAYER, EVENTUAL TRACK OF VORT MAX MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, INTERACTION OF SURFACE LOW WITH OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE) TO BE DEFINITIVE ON DEFINITIVE P-TYPE AND AMOUNT. FOR NOW WILL ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT MAINTAIN POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE NW HALF WITH A MIXTURE RAIN/SNOW SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 P-type is still very much up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 232 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011 ALZ011>015-017>050-071100- AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE- CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE- JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY- PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA- TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON- 232 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011 ...CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND... WHILE WINTER WEATHER IS A RARITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...THIS WINTER HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT NORMAL. THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. SIMILAR TO THE WINTER WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...THE WEATHER MODELS ARE PREDICTING A SURFACE LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE A VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT COULD START AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 P-type is still very much up in the air. RaleighWX sounded pretty confident in his blog that it would be mostly if not all snow here. Just makes me wonder why they sound so different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 FFC sounds like they prefer the Accuweather map and the GFS warm nose. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ATTENTION WILL TURNTO STRONG SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF THE US. GIVEN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN LONG TERM MODELS FOR THE 12Z SUITE THROUGH 72 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT IN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST LATE SUN WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN ITS FEATURES. CURRENT TRACK AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALL INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AT SOME POINT. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS HOW PERSISTENT COLD AIR WILL BE IN THE SHORT TERM AS WEDGE OVER CAROLINAS TRIES TO BUILD IN AND HOW DYNAMIC OVERALL SYSTEM BECOMES WHICH WOULD BRING WARM NOSE IN FASTER AND GIVE US MORE THAN JUST RA/SN DETERMINATION PROBLEMS. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS AND BASED ON RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE DURING CHRISTMAS WINTER EPISODE...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF -SN/-RA NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO WASHINGTON LINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST -RA ELSEWHERE. WET BULB EFFECTS SHOULD ALLOW COLUMBUS TO WASHINGTON LINE NORTHWARD TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL -SN WITH -SN MIXING WITH -RA TO THE SOUTH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD GREATLY IMPACT THIS SN/RA FORECAST. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE SCENARIO IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM NOSE ON THE GFS WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE WEDGE HOLDS FIRM. UNTIL MODELS HONE IN ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH MORE AGREEMENT...WILL JUST INDICATE SN/RA IN SPS AND GRIDS FOR THE AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST MEX GUIDANCE..ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR NORTH WHERE SN COVER MAY BECOME A FACTOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 RaleighWX sounded pretty confident in his blog that it would be mostly if not all snow here. Just makes me wonder why they sound so different. Because when you get right down to it, nobody really knows at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 FFC is saying the Atlanta area could get as much as 1-2 inches of snow, with the snow starting on Sunday and lasting until Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Columbia going to be on pins and needles as usual. Trend south baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Is this the thread for those of us not in ATL, NE GA or Charlotte to discuss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 FFC is saying the Atlanta area could get as much as 1-2 inches of snow, with the snow starting on Sunday and lasting until Tuesday. You'd think it would be more snow that that if it lasted that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 FFC is saying the Atlanta area could get as much as 1-2 inches of snow, with the snow starting on Sunday and lasting until Tuesday. lol 2 days of snow and only 1-2 inches? Good call FFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Is this the thread for those of us not in ATL, NE GA or Charlotte to discuss? Seriously, GA and western NC is dominating the storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You'd think it would be more snow that that if it lasted that long. That is some seriously light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lol 2 days of snow and only 1-2 inches? Good call FFC Yes, and they are saying that unless there's a warm nose which would cause freezing rain/sleet, then it could be mostly snow for at least 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lol 2 days of snow and only 1-2 inches? Good call FFC They sound like they have been smoking something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is the Mystery Science Theater 3000 version of the SE thread. -lol- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is the Mystery Science Theater 3000 version of the SE thread. -lol- Only without the first class wit and great one-liners for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is the Mystery Science Theater 3000 version of the SE thread. -lol- Should I be Tom Servo or Crow T Robot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I've been on all afternoon, in and out, but had to stop when I saw GSP update and say the sacred words/numbers 1988:snowman::snowman: Bring it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Should I be Tom Servo or Crow T Robot? I, for one, think you should play the role of the movie in this charade But I could see you as Tom Servo for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I've been on all afternoon, in and out, but had to stop when I saw GSP update and say the sacred words/numbers 1988:snowman::snowman: Bring it!! :lol: I'm pulling for all you upstate peeps that have been left out lately....here's to your foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 As long as we don't lose power, then bring on the snow (hopefully not ice though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 :lol: I'm pulling for all you upstate peeps that have been left out lately....here's to your foot of snow Many thx...hope you get in on the action or at least the snow part anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18Z Nam, and it's still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 18Z Nam, and it's still snowing Go Cheeze go! Love the looks of that, usually means we'll get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Go Cheeze go! Love the looks of that, usually means we'll get hammered. Where's burrel2 at? Did he faint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So does 06Z mean 1:00 am or 1:00 pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What the heck is the FFC smoking down there? I mean seriously? 1-2"?? Is their one model today that only showed 1-2" in Metro ATL???? :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Where's burrel2 at? Did he faint? I'm sure he's been watching...he may have dropped out though. Wish this was Sunday dang it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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