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January GENERAL BANTER


oconeexman

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I just don't like when the models look this good 4-5 days away. Too many things can go wrong.

yes, you are basically correct. and any other year/time i would agree with you. however, this time, while i am still cautious and trying not to be too excited, we have what so far appears to be a very similar christmas-type storm/track/modeling again. since the last few years have tended to be the same or similar track, and with the euro and others on board for something, i think a lot of us will see winter wx. just where the cut off will be, its way too early (same with amounts). but it does look increasingly likely that a lot of the SE will have a winter storm sun-tue or so :snowman: :snowman:

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Well, here's from the non-Mickey part of Florida where we really do get a winter - looks like i) the cold stays north of us this go-around :thumbsdown:, and ii) that by Jan 21 all long range ensembles have all of us moderating :angry:.

Hope all you folks north of me get what you're wishing for, and if you could just blow some of that cold down this way .... :hug::whistle:

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Well, here's from the non-Mickey part of Florida where we really do get a winter - looks like i) the cold stays north of us this go-around :thumbsdown:, and ii) that by Jan 21 all long range ensembles have all of us moderating :angry:.

Hope all you folks north of me get what you're wishing for, and if you could just blow some of that cold down this way .... :hug::whistle:

Yea that sucks for you guys.

Actually my girlfriends Dad might be moving to Gainesville so maybe I'll pay more attention down that waytongue.gif

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Well, here's from the non-Mickey part of Florida where we really do get a winter - looks like i) the cold stays north of us this go-around :thumbsdown:, and ii) that by Jan 21 all long range ensembles have all of us moderating :angry:.

Hope all you folks north of me get what you're wishing for, and if you could just blow some of that cold down this way .... :hug::whistle:

Don't you have a cabin in union county GA? You need to come on up ever the weekend!

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Yea that sucks for you guys.

Actually my girlfriends Dad might be moving to Gainesville so maybe I'll pay more attention down that waytongue.gif

Gainesville - A strange little town ...

But - We can/do get cold here. We have some sort of frozen precip almost every year (actually had some last week, but usually Feb), and if you don't pay attention to the official airport temps, (like when it says 30 when its really 24 less than 15 miles away), you'll be fine. Actually, I burn about 2 cords of wood a year. Go 30 miles south and you are in "Florida" - weird how there is a line like that - plants, topography ... and of course, weather.

Anyway, tell you girlfriend's dad that the best place to locate is OUTSIDE the city limits and best to the W or NW (taxes, and weather).

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Don't you have a cabin in union county GA? You need to come on up ever the weekend!

I do - but I also have the flu, and a business to run ... (BUT - I'm hoping to get up there in about 3 weeks, and I'm hoping that the long range models are wrong about a warm up in late Jan!).

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Gainesville - A strange little town ...

But - We can/do get cold here. We have some sort of frozen precip almost every year (actually had some last week, but usually Feb), and if you don't pay attention to the official airport temps, (like when it says 30 when its really 24 less than 15 miles away), you'll be fine. Actually, I burn about 2 cords of wood a year. Go 30 miles south and you are in "Florida" - weird how there is a line like that - plants, topography ... and of course, weather.

Anyway, tell you girlfriend's dad that the best place to locate is OUTSIDE the city limits and best to the W or NW (taxes, and weather).

Funny you say that cause my gf is from Florida and I was asking her about the climate at Gainesville and she thought it was somewhat warm there, so it goes to show even the sort of locals don't know to well. I guess you always think of Orlando or Miami when you think of FL.

Oh he is in St. Augustine and travels for work at U of Florida (he's a medical professor) so I'm sure he's aware.

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Funny you say that cause my gf is from Florida and I was asking her about the climate at Gainesville and she thought it was somewhat warm there, so it goes to show even the sort of locals don't know to well. I guess you always think of Orlando or Miami when you think of FL.

Oh he is in St. Augustine and travels for work at U of Florida (he's a medical professor) so I'm sure he's aware.

The drive from St. Augustine through Palatka to Gainesville is below that strange warm/cold line. And yes - it can get warm here (even in the winter - but mostly March - October) - but if it's going to be cold anywhere, it's here (and north through High Springs and Lake City and west to Mayo and Cross City; east and south of here, the cold seems to break down - dramatically over the course of a few miles).

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Seriously though, I do not want a major ice storm at my location. I have quite a few mature pines that would take a huge hit and could really cause a large financial burden if I have to take out the maimed giants. A sleet, snow and freezing rain mix, mostly snow of course, would be the best solution for me. I'd rather it be 33 and rain than zrain. I think this will trend to a mix of snow, sleet and zrain, like back in the 80's. Sure did make me nervous back then, lying in bed listening to sleet pelt the window and the pines creaking and limbs snapping.

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I do - but I also have the flu, and a business to run ... (BUT - I'm hoping to get up there in about 3 weeks, and I'm hoping that the long range models are wrong about a warm up in late Jan!).

Been there, had that, hope you feel better! I'm a Florida transplant from Indian River, got a taste of snow up here when I was young, fell in love with it in the 80's and wouldn't go back to Fla unless I had to.

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Sorry for he smiley post but......... :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

:weenie:

:angry:

Sorry, I don't like frauds and liars lying to millions on tv while begging people to depend on him and his station to give people the most accurate forecast.

Haha yea I knew you saw it Lookout! I think its funny that I immediately thought of your reaction! ha but yea I wanted to just watch to see him name portions of counties that could get a flurry per the in house models and I got a bigger treat! ha

:lol: It's nice to see my displeasure with this guy is well known. :guitar:

Glen motherf'n burns makes lisa mozer of the weather channel fame look like the female version of paul kocin. :gun_bandana:

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:angry:

Sorry, I don't like frauds and liars lying to millions on tv while begging people to depend on him and his station to give people the most accurate forecast.

:lol: It's nice to see my displeasure with this guy is well known. :guitar:

Glen motherf'n burns makes lisa mozer of the weather channel fame look like the female version of paul kocin. :gun_bandana:

Haha WOw now you are bringing back some memories! lol but I must say Glenn Burns says depend on us we are the most accurate but I just want to be like hey you cant be accurate when everynight you lie about where a isolated shower WILL BE at 9AM to the exact spot....well till the next model run and change it haha

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Seriously though, I do not want a major ice storm at my location. I have quite a few mature pines that would take a huge hit and could really cause a large financial burden if I have to take out the maimed giants. A sleet, snow and freezing rain mix, mostly snow of course, would be the best solution for me. I'd rather it be 33 and rain than zrain. I think this will trend to a mix of snow, sleet and zrain, like back in the 80's. Sure did make me nervous back then, lying in bed listening to sleet pelt the window and the pines creaking and limbs snapping.

Fortunately I don't have many pines IMBY so I've never had issues with falling trees/branches, but having the power go out would be brutal. It hasn't happened from a winter storm here in the past 10 years so I'm not too paranoid, but with extremely cold air progged to invade after the storm it'd be brutal having no power.

Regarding the storm itself, my major concern is that we get a northward trend that takes us out of the snow zone and puts us in the zr or just rain zone. I'm glad a lot of the normally conservative mets (like Cheez) are bullish, but at 5 days out there are just too many things that can go wrong.

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Thanks for the welcome, guys. I really appreciate all the discussion here, even if it's not specific to where I live. There's a lot of great explanation and interpretation, and I find that I can sometimes use that to extrapolate for myself. Other times it's just interesting, even if it doesn't apply to me. The lack of state-specific info doesn't take away from the enjoyment of reading here.

Sometimes I think the December Surprise was a once-in-a-lifetime thing, but that doesn't stop from me watching and hoping. I grew up during those historic late-70s and 80s winters, yet we had no accumulating snow from 1973 to early 1988. Now we've flip-flopped and my kids think it snows every year.

I had just about given up on the event this weekend for us, but now we're starting to hear the first whispers of WP from a few of the local mets and the NWS. The local NWS especially are pretty conservative on this point. I don't expect much more than sleet IF we get anything at all, but I'll be watching this a lot more carefully than I would have otherwise. I'm almost more curious about what's going to happen with the Siberian Express. I know it's way out, but the GFS is really waffling on this as far as how far S and E it's coming. What's on the GFS right now looks pretty garden-variety for us. I'd love to hear more about what the other models are showing and whether the GFS is an outlier on this.

Welcome to American Louisiana girl :) I have friends/family in your area and remember your surprise very well...it was nice posting/looking at pics while we sat in amazement over it all.

Thanks, buckeyefan. Congrats on your Sugar Bowl win. :) Where are your friends and family, if you don't mind my asking?

One picture I so wish I'd gotten was when the local first responders came by to "plow" our road with some kind of contraption that I *think* consisted of two big shovels strapped to the front bumper of a fire truck. Hilarious. It worked, though!

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