oconeexman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Definitely too good to be true. From GSP's latest AFD: AND THERE IS LINGERING CONCERN THAT CONVECTION NEAR THE GULF MIGHT INTERFERE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WE WILL HAVE AVAILABLE THIS FAR NORTH. Yea I figured as much but it only dropped me down from 8.2" to 7.2" so not too shabby...greenville down to 5.5" They are not using the NAM yet, pretty much EURO and GFS and SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Alrighty then...Raleigh says .75 to 1.25 ( But our 4km shows N Alabama, N Georgia, upstate SC and the NC southwest piedmont as the bulls eye with 0.75 to 1.25.) So at 15:1 for most of the event 10+" for Rosie through NEGa through ME and burrel and lilj to Foothills(Robert) and that includes STRONG (Mark). Can this possibly be right?? Almost to good to be true! what about me?? Thanks alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OK I'll have my weenie moment, GSP saying 3.8 now for here why does this happen for CLT every storm. Looks good then closer and closer to the event the models trend drier and drier. That convection is one SOB got us last year bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 They have give me a chance of accum, now. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. .MONDAY...SNOW. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW WITH SLEET LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 20. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 At 42 it looks poised to flood across NC but then it looks as if all the moisture was shunted East all the sudden during the next 6 hours and we are only left with leftovers my way and worse for Raleigh and points North. Its evaporating in our dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 From the uptight storm thread: @48 all the heavier precip is staying in SC. For NC it looks like this is going to be a drier run than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This storm is going to suck. I was just about to ask after reading Allan Huffman's blog if there was a way we could get more snow thatn ice, but it sounds like we might not even get anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This storm is going to suck. I was just about to ask after reading Allan Huffman's blog if there was a way we could get more snow thatn ice, but it sounds like we might not even get anything at all. You are fine student in the school of Widre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Seriously, the moisture just disappears before it gets here on the model runs. Each run gets worse and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Seriously, the moisture just disappears before it gets here on the model runs. Each run gets worse and worse. We live in the Sahara Desert. The precipitation just vanishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Seriously, the moisture just disappears before it gets here on the model runs. Each run gets worse and worse. You're an idiot. This run is going to be better for RDU qpf wise I would guess, the problem is that most of it is not snow it's mainly all ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'd take all ice rather than nothing because I'm one of those strange people who enjoys calamity. Oh, and I have a Honda generator and fifteen gallons of spare fuel, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Seriously, the moisture just disappears before it gets here on the model runs. Each run gets worse and worse. My dewpoint is 5. That where the moisture is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You're an idiot. This run is going to be better for RDU qpf wise I would guess, the problem is that most of it is not snow it's mainly all ice. No, I was just going on what everyone else was saying in the main thread about central NC. Then I go and read this from RaleighWX. It sounds like the models are agreeing pretty much on the track, but they have no idea how much precip we will really get out of it. It sounds like we won't know how much we will really get until it starts going. The NAM is just not saturating the subcolumn cloud layer at all in NC,or taking for ever to do it thus the precip just doesnt get going. One of our hi-res in-house models interestingly enough shows 0.25 to 0.5 inch over N GA, and a 0.75 to 1 inch fin NC from the southern mountains through the foothills southern piedmont to RDU to the central coastlne. But our 4km shows N Alabama, N Georgia, upstate SC and the NC southwest piedmont as the bulls eye with 0.75 to 1.25. the bottom line is that the overall storm track and ideas are pretty set in stone, however, I can still see QPF oscillate from regoin to regoin and amount to amount over the next 36-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I don't get it. Everything sounded better through 48 or 54 with the3 waves seperating which should mean less shearing our SW, Southern Sw more amplified and good placement and then POOF quicker than Hudini. Man, I hate to have to hang my hat on the GFS and UKIE but thats all I really have this way right now that look pretty good and the Euro sounds horrid this way and not great even for you guys south of me. Okay, so I've been looking at these the past few days... what the heck is it measuring and in what units? I thought it was QPF at first but then one of the members showed 100 (4 inches in millimeters) across NC. you can add me in the southern foothills of WNC to the "I like that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If this snow storm is sliding off the table for us south of Atlanta, I hope it leaves with a few sleet pellets and plenty of plain rain. I hope that the surface conditions are warming as fast as the 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You're an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Maybe I am an idiot. I am just reading what others are saying. But at least I am not mean, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I know this is slightly unrelated to the present system, but does anyone know how the 30 year averages have changed with the passing of another decade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I know this is slightly unrelated to the present system, but does anyone know how the 30 year averages have changed with the passing of another decade? For our area I'd guess that average temps have come up a little bit and precip has gone down a bit. Just a guess though, I didn't look it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Brick might be an idiot, but he knows when there is nothing of merit in the models that signals a better snow situation in central NC from this upcoming storm. Ice? meh. In fact even dryer trends may be in store for future runs in our area. For the rest....Better hope this wave blows up bit soon over Texas. Looks kind of anemic. [swirling towel over head (pre-toss)...awaiting 0z runs] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I really, really feel like this will be a very underwhelming storm for many. This is just a messy, ugly setup, fraught with so many things that can go wrong....confluence to the north, dry air, shortwave dying too quickly, 2nd shortwave too close to the first, 2nd shortwave not close enough to the first, 2nd shortwave too far to the north, moisture-robbing convection in the Gulf, low doesn't deepen rapidly enough along the SE coast, warm nose stronger than forecast, warm nose quicker to move in than forecast....the only thing going for it around here is that it's cold enough at the surface for a nice ice storm, should we actually get any precipitation. We don't have to worry about that...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Brick might be an idiot, but he knows when there is nothing of merit in the models that signals a better snow situation in central NC from this upcoming storm. Ice? meh. In fact even dryer trends may be in store for future runs in our area. For the rest....Better hope this wave blows up bit soon over Texas. Looks kind of anemic. [swirling towel over head (pre-toss)...awaiting 0z runs] I hate to be a PITA, but I'm trying to understand w/ regards to what the event model thread posters are saying and the current upper/mid level maps & models are showing. How does this particular current sfc map from TWC ( http://image.weather...rwx_600x405.jpg ) relate to the anemic ULL that 'is forming' over TX and its potential for QPF?? A couple of days ago, I was under the impression the only low coming our way was the one now shown on fore mentioned map situated over AZ?? My limited past has only looked at boobtube surface maps w/ regards to forecasts. Any chance of the sfc low phasing in w/ the TX ULL or is the sfc low sucking the life out of the TX ULL?? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hello Bozart any SN today in Fountain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I really, really feel like this will be a very underwhelming storm for many. This is just a messy, ugly setup, fraught with so many things that can go wrong....confluence to the north, dry air, shortwave dying too quickly, 2nd shortwave too close to the first, 2nd shortwave not close enough to the first, 2nd shortwave too far to the north, moisture-robbing convection in the Gulf, low doesn't deepen rapidly enough along the SE coast, warm nose stronger than forecast, warm nose quicker to move in than forecast....the only thing going for it around here is that it's cold enough at the surface for a nice ice storm, should we actually get any precipitation. We don't have to worry about that...yet. Not only in Raleigh. I get the feeling the real headline out of this storm is going to be ice, and the mayhem that ice brings. Expectations in my own back yard have gone, in a few days' time, from a nice snow to a mixed bag to a cold rain. Everybody's been hung up on QPF, but the thermals are no picnic. The whole storm has just been trending warmer, at the surface and aloft. People from Raleigh to Charlotte need to start thinking about how well prepared they are for extended power outages. Because that's on the table. Hello Bozart any SN today in Fountain? Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Brick might be an idiot, but he knows when there is nothing of merit in the models that signals a better snow situation in central NC from this upcoming storm. Ice? meh. In fact even dryer trends may be in store for future runs in our area. For the rest....Better hope this wave blows up bit soon over Texas. Looks kind of anemic. [swirling towel over head (pre-toss)...awaiting 0z runs] Are you Muslim or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I really, really feel like this will be a very underwhelming storm for many. This is just a messy, ugly setup, fraught with so many things that can go wrong....confluence to the north, dry air, shortwave dying too quickly, 2nd shortwave too close to the first, 2nd shortwave not close enough to the first, 2nd shortwave too far to the north, moisture-robbing convection in the Gulf, low doesn't deepen rapidly enough along the SE coast, warm nose stronger than forecast, warm nose quicker to move in than forecast....the only thing going for it around here is that it's cold enough at the surface for a nice ice storm, should we actually get any precipitation. We don't have to worry about that...yet. No wonder I'm a feelin' like a dumb bunny a-tryin' to learn more how the tech stuff works on this particular setup.......you nailed it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I really, really feel like this will be a very over-performing storm for many. This is just a great, beautiful setup, with so many things that can go right.... less confluence to the north, less dry air, shortwave dying later then expected, 2nd shortwave in just the right position, 2nd shortwave is close enough to the first, 2nd shortwave just far enough to the north, moisture-producing convection in the Gulf, low deepens rapidly enough along the SE coast, warm nose weaker than forecast, warm nose slower to move in than forecast....the only negative thing going for it around here is that it's cold enough at the surface for a nice ice storm. We don't have to worry about that anything really yet. There I fixed it for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not only in Raleigh. I get the feeling the real headline out of this storm is going to be ice, and the mayhem that ice brings. Expectations in my own back yard have gone, in a few days' time, from a nice snow to a mixed bag to a cold rain. Everybody's been hung up on QPF, but the thermals are no picnic. The whole storm has just been trending warmer, at the surface and aloft. People from Raleigh to Charlotte need to start thinking about how well prepared they are for extended power outages. Because that's on the table. Yeah. That's a good point about folks being unprepared for ice. I'm still not convinced that there will be enough precip, at least in a lot of NC to create a major ice storm. Parts of GA and SC maybe. We'll see. But I've completely given up on more than an inch or so of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So since everyone pretty much ignores my forecast's should I stop making them? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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