FallsLake Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Does anybody have another link for the GFS & NAM? The NCEP site is down. I had Allen's site at one time but lost it. Thanks in advance.. www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov --not working Never mind - It's up now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 I know a lot of you are upset at the latest models, leaves a bunch of folks out of the heavy stuff, i don't blame you!! Been there many..many times. But from NEGa's house to lilj's house (me right in the middle and burrel) this is a dream setup, a once in 20 year set up. May not get the totals of 1988 but will get more than usual. 6" or more I feel pretty good about now! Back to work...hopefully today will get back to getting everyone in on the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I am leaning in the direction of one step above a non-event here. with perhaps a couple of inches before the dreaded changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I am leaning in the direction of one step above a non-event here. with perhaps a couple of inches before the dreaded changeover. Considering the snow hole you've been in I would hardly call a few inches one step above a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Considering the snow hole you've been in I would hardly call a few inches one step above a non event haha yeah after the boxing day event it feels that way though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 haha yeah after the boxing day event it feels that way though . You'll be going from a Martin to a high end Takamin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just had a closer look at the 6z GFS... .42 of snow and .21 of sleet/ZR isn't too shabby. We're gonna see SOMETHING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You'll be going from a Martin to a high end Takamin Hahah that is about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I am leaning in the direction of one step above a non-event here. with perhaps a couple of inches before the dreaded changeover. Think positive!! Captured live image from Banner Elk, NC just a couple minutes ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just had a closer look at the 6z GFS... .42 of snow and .21 of sleet/ZR isn't too shabby. We're gonna see SOMETHING. How come everyone on the main thread seems like we won't hardly get any precip here according to the model runs lately? They say the precip shuts off to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 How come everyone on the main thread seems like we won't hardly get any precip here according to the model runs lately? They say the precip shuts off to our south. Because they're talking about the 12z NAM not the 06z GFS. 12z NAM @ 66: Obviously we see SOMETHING per this run. The BULK of precip is to our south and has been for days. http://i.imgur.com/VdHNQ.gif 06z GFS: 12 hours of frozen precip SNOW ending as MIX/ZR/IP/WHATEVER/etc/etc/etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I guess it seemed like folks on th emain thread were acting like we weren't going to get anything here. I'd take 4 inches of snow with some ice on top. To be honest, I want just enough for the roads to be bad enough that my office will be closed Wednesday. Is the timing of this looking like it will start Monday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I guess it seemed like folks on th emain thread were acting like we weren't going to get anything here. I'd take 4 inches of snow with some ice on top. To be honest, I want just enough for the roads to be bad enough that my office will be closed Wednesday. Is the timing of this looking like it will start Monday afternoon? Brick, what do you do for a living? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 WTF, I just looked outside and it's snowing. Flizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well, we get up to 40 hours of paid time if we are closed for weather. I will gladly take that and just spend the day at home with my family. I am trying to figure out exactly what the models are showing, but it's hard because all the talk seems to be focused on Charlotte and western NC. I just wish there was more discussion in the main thread about the Triangle. It's ok to TALK about your own backyard with every post, but you can't ask a question about your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 woo hoo - just woke up and saw the headline of major winter storm on the gsp site although the last few comments make me nervous, so i guess its time to check out the models from overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, heavy snow and I already have a dusting here in GSO! By the looks of radar, this is a very small area of snow and it will be over within 15 minutes, but still real cool to see! HUGE snowflakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I guess it seemed like folks on th emain thread were acting like we weren't going to get anything here. I'd take 4 inches of snow with some ice on top. To be honest, I want just enough for the roads to be bad enough that my office will be closed Wednesday. Is the timing of this looking like it will start Monday afternoon? Don't post in the main thread, just post here and maybe someone will answer you. What we get in the triangle will be a mixed bag. We will NOT get all snow, ever, with this storm. People near CLT, western carolinas, N GA, etc have a better chance of having a greater event and closer to more snow or mainly snow in some areas and high totals. With that said, just because they are leaving the words RDU and TRIANGLE out of the PBP doesn't mean we aren't getting anything. The world doesn't revolve around central NC...we're just out of the big picture because for once the bullseye isn't centered on wake county. Per the NAM looks like late Monday it will start...look for a Monday overnight into Tuesday event as it's been all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What I am really worried about is this thing starting Monday during working hours, and then people getting stuck on the roads when they leave work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Oh oh oh....how much for my area? Tell me, tell me, tell me. It will verify exactly to what the models show if you tell me. OMG...just tell me already how much for my area. I can't stand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well, we get up to 40 hours of paid time if we are closed for weather. I will gladly take that and just spend the day at home with my family. I am trying to figure out exactly what the models are showing, but it's hard because all the talk seems to be focused on Charlotte and western NC. I just wish there was more discussion in the main thread about the Triangle. It's ok to TALK about your own backyard with every post, but you can't ask a question about your backyard. Go here. Click on the model run you want. Then peruse two things: 850MB Temp/6 hour precip and total precipitation. Look at the colors and match them with the amount of precip it shows in the key.Big blue line is the freezing line at 850mb or about 5000 feet. It's a rough marker of the rain/snow line but not a perfect one. Now you know what the models are showing and you don't need to rely on people to tell you. For snow accum maps, try Allan's site. Click on the model you want and go down to where it says Snow Accumulation. Hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, heavy snow and I already have a dusting here in GSO! By the looks of radar, this is a very small area of snow and it will be over within 15 minutes, but still real cool to see! HUGE snowflakes! WEIRD! Do you have a DV Cam? Get some footage! I bought a Kodak zi8 for $99 at target when it's on sale...720p/60fps or 1080p video...it's cool. I'm getting some decent rates here in morgantown but I didn't have my camera with me. HUGE flakes and the roads aren't plowed, people slip and slide when they drive around here and simply do not care in this town, crazy. Took a video from my hotel room though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, driveway covered out front and a solid coating has fallen. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 WEIRD! Do you have a DV Cam? Get some footage! I bought a Kodak zi8 for $99 at target when it's on sale...720p/60fps or 1080p video...it's cool. I'm getting some decent rates here in morgantown but I didn't have my camera with me. HUGE flakes and the roads aren't plowed, people slip and slide when they drive around here and simply do not care in this town, crazy. Took a video from my hotel room though. I just used my camera to take some pics and some somewhat crappy video. I'll upload them in a few minutes. I was shocked to look outside and see the snow coming down so hard out of nowhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I just used my camera to take some pics and some somewhat crappy video. I'll upload them in a few minutes. I was shocked to look outside and see the snow coming down so hard out of nowhere! Some of these flakes in Greensboro are gigantic. I'd better go check for dents in my car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What I am really worried about is this thing starting Monday during working hours, and then people getting stuck on the roads when they leave work. Brick- the NAM says the precip won't start in the RDU area until after work hours Monday. The GFS has been earlier with the precip. It generally shows light snow breaking out in the Triangle during the early afternoon. As such...the GFS shows some modest snow accumulation before changing over to freezing rain while the NAM basically shows a light freezing rain or sleet event Monday night. Your concern is valid. I have the same concern for my wife who travels to Durham every day. My hope is that we'll get some agreement in the modeling soon, although just not today because I want the GFS to continue it's earlier arrival of the precip because I want to see some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Are we still looking at sfc temps in the mid to upper 20s during the bulk of precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Are we still looking at sfc temps in the mid to upper 20s during the bulk of precip? Yes we are, which is pretty cool actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And just like that, it's over and sunny! Some of these flakes in Greensboro are gigantic. I'd better go check for dents in my car. LOL, I know, that was wild. Biggest flakes I've seen in years. Now if we could only get flakes like that to last 12 hours, we'd have a foot and a half of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And just like that, it's over and sunny! LOL, I know, that was wild. Biggest flakes I've seen in years. Now if we could only get flakes like that to last 12 hours, we'd have a foot and a half of snow! Really interested in that vid now -- post it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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