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Cold January a surprise?


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A different look at some of the stuff Don Southerland posted...

Januarys with a mod/strong Niña in NDJ (-1.0 or lower) and the corresponding January AO and NAO values 1950-present:

Year (AO, NAO)

1951 (-0.085, +0.08)

1955 (-1.163, -1.84)

1956 (-1.204, -0.22)

1965* (-1.046, -0.12)

1971* (-0.163, -1.13)

1974** (+0.232, +1.34)

1976 (+0.034, -0.25)

1985 (-2.806, -1.61)

1989* (+3.106, +1.17)

1999** (+0.110, +0.77)

2000 (+1.270, +0.60)

2008** (+0.819, +0.89)

* Years where the previous winter had a weak El Niño

** Years where the previous winter had a mod/strong El Niño

Using the four highlighted years, which indicate a mod/strong -AO during January (no weak -AO cases), we get this composite for January, using 1971-2000 normals:

post-96-0-99967100-1294178471.png

1965, the ONLY analog from 1950-present with a mod/strong -AO coming out of any sort of Niño to mod/strong Niña transition year:

post-96-0-07020600-1294178485.png

EDIT: Maps changed to use fixed scale.

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