Bastardi: Coldest January in over a Quarter Century

[A-L-E-X]

Noone cares about a few eskimos. Bring on the cold for AMERICA!

Yeah, Ive been reading this in the Times and seeing it mentioned quite a bit on the news-- the new "in" theory seems to be that a lack of Arctic sea ice is leading to our anomalously cold winter and extreme blocking

[Ottawa Blizzard]

But wouldn't that debunk "GLOBAL" warming? If it's not happening over the vast majority of the globe, it can't be global!

I agree. My point is that people are going to use whatever weather they are personally experiencing as ammunition to claim that their viewpoint is correct. Given global warming is now often referred to as "climate change", many up here will claim that the climate zones are shifting and that the odd weather is part of this global climate change. Personally I think sometimes weather just happens.

[nzucker]

Yeah, Ive been reading this in the Times and seeing it mentioned quite a bit on the news-- the new "in" theory seems to be that a lack of Arctic sea ice is leading to our anomalously cold winter and extreme blocking

You can also take the opposite point of view and say the lack of arctic sea ice is being caused by the blocking ridge (-NAO/-AO) that's keeping higher than normal 500mb heights over variable ice areas such as the Sea of Okhotsk and Hudson Bay.

There are good studies showing that years with less arctic sea ice had higher 500mb heights over the Arctic, and it was discussed in the "Nocoldvember" thread back on Eastern. So it's not a totally bogus claim but I'm certainly of the mind that the solar cycle is playing a bigger role in the recent blocking trends.

[A-L-E-X]

You can also take the opposite point of view and say the lack of arctic sea ice is being caused by the blocking ridge (-NAO/-AO) that's keeping higher than normal 500mb heights over variable ice areas such as the Sea of Okhotsk and Hudson Bay.

There are good studies showing that years with less arctic sea ice had higher 500mb heights over the Arctic, and it was discussed in the "Nocoldvember" thread back on Eastern. So it's not a totally bogus claim but I'm certainly of the mind that the solar cycle is playing a bigger role in the recent blocking trends.

Yeah, the solar cycle seems to match up really well, not only with our recent episodes of blocking, but also when blocking was virtually nonexistent in the late 80s and early 90s. Im thinking that the solar cycle might be directly connected to the AO (primary causal agent) which then influences the NAO. It makes sense-- since, you'd think the Arctic regions would be most sensitive to changes in the sun for various reasons.

[nzucker]

Yeah, the solar cycle seems to match up really well, not only with our recent episodes of blocking, but also when blocking was virtually nonexistent in the late 80s and early 90s. Im thinking that the solar cycle might be directly connected to the AO (primary causal agent) which then influences the NAO. It makes sense-- since, you'd think the Arctic regions would be most sensitive to changes in the sun for various reasons.

Definitely, and we'll see if the cryosphere manages to regenerate itself with the continued solar minimum and blocking which allows more multi-year ice to be held within the Arctic. The whole structure of the Arctic including the Beaufort Gyre and Transpolar Drift Stream has changed due to ice loss, but it may be possible to revert to older patterns if we do get a Dalton/Maunder minimum in solar activity especially given it's combined with a -PDO and a pre-existing decadal cycle of -NAO tendency. So it'll be interesting times ahead.

[tacoman25]

Yeah, Ive been reading this in the Times and seeing it mentioned quite a bit on the news-- the new "in" theory seems to be that a lack of Arctic sea ice is leading to our anomalously cold winter and extreme blocking

Because ultimately, everything anomalous/extreme has to be due to "us".

[Molon Labe]

Yes he did...How soon he forgets

Link or it's not true.

[JoMo]

Link or it's not true.

It was already linked.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/685590899001/thanksgiving-to-christmas-may-be-the-worst-of-easts-winter.asp?channel=vbbastaj

[JoMo]

Got to love how everyone here is so excited about Bastardi switching gears and how it looks like January might end up cold and snowy for areas that frankly don't need it. The map above speaks pages. Maine is still forecast to be above normal, as is northern Vermont, the very places that rely on cold and snow for their economy. Northeast Canada is torching like mad as a result of the same block that is providing people in the south with snow. The eastern half of Hudson Bay is still open water in early January! Labrador has lakes that haven't even frozen over and some of the isolated communities up there actually rely on ice in the winter in order to get from village to village. All-in-all, this is an awful pattern and one that is frankly playing right into the hands of those up here in Canada who claim that our winters are steadily getting milder. They have always claimed that it is the higher latitudes that will see the most pronounced warming in the coming years and decades and given the pattern for the past 12-14 months, who can argue with them? An earlier post said that Brett Anderson was going to bust. Not necessarily. He is calling for a mega torch in northeastern Canada and that is exactly what that region is getting.

This was Brett Anderson's forecast:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/38129/my-preliminary-winter-forecast-1.asp

[MN Transplant]

But wouldn't that debunk "GLOBAL" warming? If it's not happening over the vast majority of the globe, it can't be global!

Global warming refers to the average temperature of the globe going up. 2010 was either the warmest (NASA - Hansen), statistically tied for the warmest (UAH - Christy/Spencer), or runner-up to the Super Nino '98 (RSS - Mears).

[donsutherland1]

Got to love how everyone here is so excited about Bastardi switching gears and how it looks like January might end up cold and snowy for areas that frankly don't need it. The map above speaks pages. Maine is still forecast to be above normal, as is northern Vermont, the very places that rely on cold and snow for their economy. Northeast Canada is torching like mad as a result of the same block that is providing people in the south with snow. The eastern half of Hudson Bay is still open water in early January! Labrador has lakes that haven't even frozen over and some of the isolated communities up there actually rely on ice in the winter in order to get from village to village.

This is an important point. I very much hope that things will change down the road, as winter weather is economically important for parts of northern New England and Canada. I empathize with those who have been adversely impacted by the severe blocking that has deprived communities dependent on winter weather of such weather. I am keenly aware that even as winter weather is something I enjoy, for many it is something they depend on for at least part of their livelihoods. For their sake, I do hope that something can be salvaged before Winter 2010-11 concludes.

FWIW, I was speaking with a close friend who lives in Quebec City on New Year's Day. He told me that it was raining in Quebec City that day and that the winter has not been harsh up there. He was very surprised to have read the news accounts of the blizzard that recently impacted parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/SE Virginia/southern New England region. I explained blocking and its impact to him, but neither he nor his family are really interested in the blocking. They hope it goes away and winter returns to Quebec City.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

This is an important point. I very much hope that things will change down the road, as winter weather is economically important for parts of northern New England and Canada. I empathize with those who have been adversely impacted by the severe blocking that has deprived communities dependent on winter weather of such weather. I am keenly aware that even as winter weather is something I enjoy, for many it is something they depend on for at least part of their livelihoods. For their sake, I do hope that something can be salvaged before Winter 2010-11 concludes.

FWIW, I was speaking with a close friend who lives in Quebec City on New Year's Day. He told me that it was raining in Quebec City that day and that the winter has not been harsh up there. He was very surprised to have read the news accounts of the blizzard that recently impacted parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/SE Virginia/southern New England region. I explained blocking and its impact to him, but neither he nor his family are really interested in the blocking. They hope it goes away and winter returns to Quebec City.

Thank you Don for one again being the voice of reason. Good post.

[stormguy80]

That's why "climate change" is now used instead to describe the situation.

But wouldn't that debunk "GLOBAL" warming? If it's not happening over the vast majority of the globe, it can't be global!

[tacoman25]

Global warming refers to the average temperature of the globe going up. 2010 was either the warmest (NASA - Hansen), statistically tied for the warmest (UAH - Christy/Spencer), or runner-up to the Super Nino '98 (RSS - Mears).

UAH, RSS, and HadCRU were all cooler than 1998.

[beavis1729]

Not to sound like a weenie (and it's only based on today's 6z and 12z gfs)...but the long-advertised arctic outbreak is basically gone.

Hmmm...what happened?

[donsutherland1]

Not to sound like a weenie (and it's only based on today's 6z and 12z gfs)...but the long-advertised arctic outbreak is basically gone.

Hmmm...what happened?

It's there on the ensembles.

[Ellinwood]

Not to sound like a weenie (and it's only based on today's 6z and 12z gfs)...but the long-advertised arctic outbreak is basically gone.

Hmmm...what happened?

hiccup.

It's there on the ensembles.

Indeed.

Image courtesy of MDA/EarthSat.

[MN Transplant]

Not to sound like a weenie (and it's only based on today's 6z and 12z gfs)...but the long-advertised arctic outbreak is basically gone.

Hmmm...what happened?

I wouldn't worry about it. (top 00z GFS, bottom 00z ECMWF)

[Yeoman]

Not to sound like a weenie (and it's only based on today's 6z and 12z gfs)...but the long-advertised arctic outbreak is basically gone.

Hmmm...what happened?

Weenie analysis happened.

[Organizing Low]

This is an important point. I very much hope that things will change down the road, as winter weather is economically important for parts of northern New England and Canada. I empathize with those who have been adversely impacted by the severe blocking that has deprived communities dependent on winter weather of such weather. I am keenly aware that even as winter weather is something I enjoy, for many it is something they depend on for at least part of their livelihoods. For their sake, I do hope that something can be salvaged before Winter 2010-11 concludes.

FWIW, I was speaking with a close friend who lives in Quebec City on New Year's Day. He told me that it was raining in Quebec City that day and that the winter has not been harsh up there. He was very surprised to have read the news accounts of the blizzard that recently impacted parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/SE Virginia/southern New England region. I explained blocking and its impact to him, but neither he nor his family are really interested in the blocking. They hope it goes away and winter returns to Quebec City.

Yes I have tried to explain blocking to people, but people don't have any interest usually. Although repeat customers do ask if the block is still planning to stick around. They are quite pleased when I tell them yes.

While OB's points are very valid, most Canadians, the vast majority in Eastern Canada's populated centers....are quite happy with the weather the past couple years. Thrilled even.

Frankly, America can have winter and keep it as long as you want, that is what many will tell you.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

hiccup.

Indeed.

Image courtesy of MDA/EarthSat.

That is an odd map when you consider that the latest GFS operational seems to show bitter cold actually moving into my region in the same timeframe

[tamarack]

A lot of what you just wrote is not correct, however. Northern Vermont and Interior Maine probably get more snow when their temperatures are above normal in January. Up there, in a "cold" January, most of the snow gets squashed way South.

Maybe sometimes, but while snowfall is important, snowpack is what really drives the winter rec, and Jan warmth often messes that up. Witness last year, when snowmobiling came to an abrupt halt with the 1/25 torch/deluge and never got good again, or 2006 when - despite slightly above normal (23.8") Jan snowfall - snomo clubs were scavaging parking lot piles to patch low elevation trailhead areas.

Only one station, but a snowy foothills spot (Farmington, avg 88"/yr) with nearly 120 yr records...

Jan avg temp 15.7, avg snowfall 21.2"

Jan 20F or milder (n=17): 18.7"

Jan 10F or colder (n also 17): 23.2"

Not a huge difference given sample size, but...

[JamieOber]

This is an important point. I very much hope that things will change down the road, as winter weather is economically important for parts of northern New England and Canada. I empathize with those who have been adversely impacted by the severe blocking that has deprived communities dependent on winter weather of such weather. I am keenly aware that even as winter weather is something I enjoy, for many it is something they depend on for at least part of their livelihoods. For their sake, I do hope that something can be salvaged before Winter 2010-11 concludes.

FWIW, I was speaking with a close friend who lives in Quebec City on New Year's Day. He told me that it was raining in Quebec City that day and that the winter has not been harsh up there. He was very surprised to have read the news accounts of the blizzard that recently impacted parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/SE Virginia/southern New England region. I explained blocking and its impact to him, but neither he nor his family are really interested in the blocking. They hope it goes away and winter returns to Quebec City.

Yes I have tried to explain blocking to people, but people don't have any interest usually. Although repeat customers do ask if the block is still planning to stick around. They are quite pleased when I tell them yes.

While OB's points are very valid, most Canadians, the vast majority in Eastern Canada's populated centers....are quite happy with the weather the past couple years. Thrilled even.

Frankly, America can have winter and keep it as long as you want, that is what many will tell you.

Ah yes.....that glazed look in people's eyes when you try to talk technical weather stuff.

I know it well.

[Ellinwood]

That is an odd map when you consider that the latest GFS operational seems to show bitter cold actually moving into my region in the same timeframe

I think what you should worry about more is that the GFS operational is an odd map considering it is an outlier compared to the ensemble mean, which has better verification than the operational for that timeframe.

[DCMetroWinston]

Oh no they didnt:

While Bastardi changed his outlook for January early on during December, some meteorologists outside of AccuWeather.com continued to be puzzled about statements of severe January cold even after the first of the year.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/44043/extreme-cold-coming-january-we.asp

[donsutherland1]

http://www.accuweath...-january-we.asp

Perhaps some confusion on my part:

The video attached to the story was cut on January 5 (or at least that is the date that listed), not in December. Moreover, if the forecast of the coldest winter since 1985 on a nationwide basis was made in December--and I am not saying that it was not made in December--shouldn't the announcement/video have been posted when the call was made? Publicizing the call when it was made would have represented a maximum opportunity for differentiation. An announcement dated in early January and a video dated January 5 creates perceptions that the forecast was made later, even if those perceptions are at odds with the facts.

Clearly, I do not have inside information on what forecast was made when. In addition, again to be clear, I am not in any way suggesting that the forecast was not made in December. But the inconsistency in details between the text of the announcement and the information (video) provided creates problems of perception. That inconsistency hints that either the announcement's information is wrong or the marketing of the forecast was suboptimal (delayed announcement/video). If it is the latter situation, that would be more worrisome from an organizational standpoint than a simple typo in the press release, as that situation would suggest possible issues that could undermine the timely dissemination of forecasts. Given the importance of good medium-range forecasts for let's say the energy sector, delays in conveying the information could adversely impact AccuWx (existing clients or prospective new clients). Repeated typos, though could create credibility issues, but that is a separate issue beyond the scope of this message.

Finally, as I have mentioned in the past, I strongly dislike references to what other meteorologists have been calling for. First, there is no substantiation for the claim in the announcement. Second, there were numerous meteorologists (some who posted their thoughts here at AmericanWx) who had concluded that January could turn out cold. Personally, I would greatly prefer if forecasts were made and then verified and verifications (excellence in one's own work) were the major point of differentiation rather than arguments that others performed worse.

[VAwxman]

Oh no they didnt:

http://www.accuweath...-january-we.asp

Whoa now....

"While Bastardi changed his outlook for January early on during December..."

I don't like to get into these things, but this is bullcrap. I saw the forecasts as we rolled through December, and there was absolutely NOT any "catching on" to what we are seeing now back then. Heck there were still 05-06 flip type references as late as mid December! This whole "coldest Jan in 25 yrs" stuff did NOT appear until after the turn of the new year. There is nothing wrong with adjusting a forecast, but damn, cut out some of the blatant lying.

[mitchnick]

Whoa now....

"While Bastardi changed his outlook for January early on during December..."

I don't like to get into these things, but this is bullcrap. I saw the forecasts as we rolled through December, and there was absolutely NOT any "catching on" to what we are seeing now back then. Heck there were still 05-06 flip type references as late as mid December! This whole "coldest Jan in 25 yrs" stuff did NOT appear until after the turn of the new year. There is nothing wrong with adjusting a forecast, but damn, cut out some of the blatant lying.

you are absolutely correct

I do recall him questioning his own forecast in a video late in DEC, but he did not change it by then

this is really shocking to me because no one at Accuwx has ever done this before....

[Huffwx]

Whoa now....

"While Bastardi changed his outlook for January early on during December..."

I don't like to get into these things, but this is bullcrap. I saw the forecasts as we rolled through December, and there was absolutely NOT any "catching on" to what we are seeing now back then. Heck there were still 05-06 flip type references as late as mid December! This whole "coldest Jan in 25 yrs" stuff did NOT appear until after the turn of the new year. There is nothing wrong with adjusting a forecast, but damn, cut out some of the blatant lying.

I'm ashamed to admit this, but I watched his video-- he said he released his new forecast last week on Friday-- Dec 31st. I had an idea that cold was coming at that point, so surely JB had that idea as well.

[VAwxman]

you are absolutely correct

I do recall him questioning his own forecast in a video late in DEC, but he did not change it by then

this is really shocking to me because no one at Accuwx has ever done this before....

It's unreal.

Oh, and I get to see forecasts in the energy world from other sources, and guess what... As of mid Dec, Accu had the WARMEST forecast of the bunch. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Accu.

Not a slam at all on JB here. He didn't write this stuff.