Bastardi: Coldest January in over a Quarter Century

[Wonderdog]

Some would rather he stick to his original forecast so they could ridicule him some more. Someday, everyone who don't like him and his bombastic style will realize it is a business, just like any other. It's the bottom line that counts.

I cant understand this mindset at all, what should he just stick with a forecast that he now believes to be wrong. Everyone acknowledges long-term forecasting isn't an exact science. If he sees evidence pointing to a very cold january now, should he just ignore it, put his head in the sand, and stick with warmer? What do you think he should do?

[MoeWx]

I cant understand this mindset at all, what should he just stick with a forecast that he now believes to be wrong. Everyone acknowledges long-term forecasting isn't an exact science. If he sees evidence pointing to a very cold january now, should he just ignore it, put his head in the sand, and stick with warmer? What do you think he should do?

I think he made the right move shifting gears. What SHOULD be happening based on a typical La Nina, albeit a strong one. And what is happening don't line up. So the confusion and shifting imo is justified. But the evidence at this point has become overwhelmingly cold through next week. The evidence was way the other direction towards the end of December. I can't recall any recent incidences where he has made a complete reversal like this week though. FWIW

[buckeye]

Didnt JB say January would be a blowtorch and winter would end in the east in Dec?

what's up with jb? I think the MA weenies ticked him off emailing him and complaining about being donut-holed with that last storm. He has really turned on you DC'ers. He's mentioned in practically every vid and column since that storm that it's pretty much over for DC this winter, other than a potential slop storm.

meh, with his track record lately that might be a good thing for ya

[stormguy80]

why? Are you kidding? Do I have to state the obvious?

No disrespect intended...I read both forums...but why is there such animosity between accuweather and this forum...and between everyone and the weather channel. I realize the weather channel has become more of a tv show now with less actual weather...just curious....also I had the pleasure of having Dr Jon Nese as a professor in college and wondered if anyone knows where he is at nowadays.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk

[bluewave]

Yea, I remember in dec of 05 accuweather came out with a forecast map that had "much below" for Jan 06 temperature in a good chunk of the east. Then it turned out to be the warmest January on record for the lower 48.

The early December cold gave the impression that it might have some staying power but once the 50's started locking here a few days before Christmas

you knew that something was up.In any event, the FEB 11 storm made up for the January warmth around NYC metro.

[Brian5671]

Some would rather he stick to his original forecast so they could ridicule him some more. Someday, everyone who don't like him and his bombastic style will realize it is a business, just like any other. It's the bottom line that counts.

Nah...it's the years he goes cold and it never comes, that's when he sticks with his call and gets destroyed on the blogs...JB is a weenie at heart and is likely happy to see his warm call bust hard....

[Yeoman]

He's mentioned in practically every vid and column since that storm that it's pretty much over for DC this winter, other than a potential slop storm.

That's the best thing I've read all day.. thanks

[Neblizzard]

So, were there any prominent forecasters who foresaw a cold East Coast January before December?

Yes Larry Cosgrove

[HSVWx]

December, yes... January (and February)... no. This reinvigorated block caught almost all mets by surprise as early as mid-December. There wasn't any expectation to have the extreme blocking last into January.

Here was my original call back on October 3rd (which was warmer than others, especially in the Northwest and Northern Plains):

...and the mid-December update, with the thoughts that the we could torch after we got rid of the block:

...and finally the "harsh reality" outlook, showing how the blocking pattern will dominate the month:

There really isn't any good Niña/AO/NAO analog for this January... unless we can get a nice ridge out west and aboves in that region by the end of the month.

.........And we think that global warming, climate change, flavor of the month, or (whatever is popular at the time) can be modeld accurately and by determining (what or whom) is causing it It is what it is.

[rainstorm]

Yes Larry Cosgrove

LC is on a hot streak.

[Ji]

what's up with jb? I think the MA weenies ticked him off emailing him and complaining about being donut-holed with that last storm. He has really turned on you DC'ers. He's mentioned in practically every vid and column since that storm that it's pretty much over for DC this winter, other than a potential slop storm.

meh, with his track record lately that might be a good thing for ya

hmm...i thought i read a few days ago that DC and Baltimore would get a few 4-8 inch storms. Anyway...he really screwed up DC's forecast in the Dec 26 event. He gave us 10 inches and we got 9 flakes

[buckeye]

LC is on a hot streak.

LC has actually done ok so far....in general. However, he had cmh receiving a winter total of 8" of snow. I thought it was a typo, but it was intentional. He's got a 1" window of breathing room from now til april or he busts.

[am19psu]

LC has actually done ok so far....in general. However, he had cmh receiving a winter total of 8" of snow. I thought it was a typo, but it was intentional. He's got a 1" window of breathing room from now til april or he busts.

She's referencing his luckbox forecast of no U.S. hurricane landfalls.

[buckeye]

She's referencing his luckbox forecast of no U.S. hurricane landfalls.

well damn...

if he nailed that one you're right, he's either incredibly lucky or a hell of a forecaster.

[am19psu]

well damn...

if he nailed that one you're right, he's either incredibly lucky or a hell of a forecaster.

He went 12/7/3 for the seasonal totals. Luckbox.

[stormguy80]

Yeah, I agree. I used to be very much in the GW is almost all man-made and its a big issue. The more I read about it and the deeper the understanding I develop of the science my views have really modified. Bottom line I think qualitatively man has had at least some contribution but quantitatevely we really don't know how how much.

.........And we think that global warming, climate change, flavor of the month, or (whatever is popular at the time) can be modeld accurately and by determining (what or whom) is causing it It is what it is.

[JSGolf]

why? Are you kidding? Do I have to state the obvious?

I was not a reader of this site under its previous name (I joined here yesterday so it's not "obvious" to me), however I've heard several people on the other site say that while the Easternwx/Americanwx forums have a good number of individuals who are knowledgeable and helpful (for example, people who gave me a straight answer to the question I asked earlier in this thread...thank you) but on the same token, these forums also have a perceived reputation as being filled with people who are immature/quick to jump on someone if they disagree what is posted.

I asked a legitimate question. You didn't offer anything useful as far as an answer, so all you did was provide evidence to substantiate claims made on the other forums...If you'd like to contribute something meaningful to the discussion, I welcome your answer to my original question.

[donsutherland1]

Putting aside who forecast what and whose forecast changed for January in response to the blocking, an interesting question arises as to whether February might offer a January forecast replay. La Niña climatology strongly suggests a generally warm February in the eastern half of the U.S. Past experience with severe December blocks suggests that another strong block could redevelop at some point in February.

Following the EPO's going positive and the likely Arctic outbreak in the January 15-21 timeframe in the East, moderation appears likely. If things turn warm for a time, especially if the AO goes positive in the closing 7-10 days of the month, one might be tempted to conclude that the La Niña is finally taking over the pattern. But there would be risk with that assessment. If strong blocking redevelops, the warmth could again prove temporary. Right now, it's a little soon for me to venture a guess on February, but some of the data I have looked at suggests that February is not a slam dunk warm month for the East, particularly from the northern Mid-Atlantic northward.

[JamieOber]

Putting aside who forecast what and whose forecast changed for January in response to the blocking, an interesting question arises as to whether February might offer a January forecast replay. La Niña climatology strongly suggests a generally warm February in the eastern half of the U.S. Past experience with severe December blocks suggests that another strong block could redevelop at some point in February.

Following the EPO's going positive and the likely Arctic outbreak in the January 15-21 timeframe in the East, moderation appears likely. If things turn warm for a time, especially if the AO goes positive in the closing 7-10 days of the month, one might be tempted to conclude that the La Niña is finally taking over the pattern. But there would be risk with that assessment. If strong blocking redevelops, the warmth could again prove temporary. Right now, it's a little soon for me to venture a guess on February, but some of the data I have looked at suggests that February is not a slam dunk warm month for the East, particularly from the northern Mid-Atlantic northward.

JB seems to be going with a mild final 7-10 days of January.

[donsutherland1]

JB seems to be going with a mild final 7-10 days of January.

I don't disagree. The EPO is progged to go positive. The blocking might relax for a time. That seems reasonable to me. If or when the blocking redevelops for February could make a big difference as to the outcome for that month.

[JSGolf]

Thank you for the reply. I appreciate your candid answer. As I said earlier, I have read the accuweather forums for years, and as of yesterday I've been reading here. The reason I asked the question is because I wanted to hear both sides of the story (I've obviously heard the accuweather forums version so it's only fair I hear opinions here as well). I also enjoy reading Steven DiMartino's site and listening to his videos. I feel that he explains things very well. I teach middle school multimedia and I design my own curriculum. In my 5th and 6th grade curriculum, I incorporate weather forecasting. The more sites I can point students to for information, the better. Thanks again!

Ok. Since you asked; Accuweather is not a good company to put it as tactfully as I possibly can. They came on the scene as one of the first private enterprises in meteorology and sold out the profession as far as I’m concerned. Meteorologists work hard at what they do and I have great respect for those I have both worked with and gone to school with and they don‘t deserve to be compensated and treated worse than Walmart Employees (Walmart doesn‘t indenture its employees to 3 year contracts). Accuweather set the standard in the private sector by selling their products cheaply and paying their employees less. The only reason they have gotten away with it is because most people don’t take the time to research the numbers are realize how poor their forecasts verify compared to everyone else. Had Accuweather been different, the whole private sector would have gone a different direction - rather than having forecasts that generally speaking are not better than the NWS and salaries that a by far worse than the NWS you could have a limited number of good companies selling premium products at good wages. As others have said, Accuweather over hypes. Yes, sometimes of course they will be right but a broken clock is also right twice a day. Finally, as if all this isn’t enough guys like Bastardi are constantly taking jabs at the NWS and other providers whenever they get a chance. Anyway, that's all I will say on the matter.

[Coach McGuirk]

Based on this forecast, AccuWeather.com Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi says this month could turn out to be the coldest January for the nation as a whole since 1985.

While there has been outstanding regionalized cold in January in recent years, Bastardi points out that the U.S. has not experienced this type of coast-to-coast cold since the 1980s.

http://www.accuweath...-be-coldest.asp

Well, it was the 4th coldest and 2nd snowiest December on record for Norfolk, VA.

Lets do it.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

December, yes... January (and February)... no. This reinvigorated block caught almost all mets by surprise as early as mid-December. There wasn't any expectation to have the extreme blocking last into January.

Here was my original call back on October 3rd (which was warmer than others, especially in the Northwest and Northern Plains):

...and the mid-December update, with the thoughts that the we could torch after we got rid of the block:

...and finally the "harsh reality" outlook, showing how the blocking pattern will dominate the month:

There really isn't any good Niña/AO/NAO analog for this January... unless we can get a nice ridge out west and aboves in that region by the end of the month.

Got to love how everyone here is so excited about Bastardi switching gears and how it looks like January might end up cold and snowy for areas that frankly don't need it. The map above speaks pages. Maine is still forecast to be above normal, as is northern Vermont, the very places that rely on cold and snow for their economy. Northeast Canada is torching like mad as a result of the same block that is providing people in the south with snow. The eastern half of Hudson Bay is still open water in early January! Labrador has lakes that haven't even frozen over and some of the isolated communities up there actually rely on ice in the winter in order to get from village to village. All-in-all, this is an awful pattern and one that is frankly playing right into the hands of those up here in Canada who claim that our winters are steadily getting milder. They have always claimed that it is the higher latitudes that will see the most pronounced warming in the coming years and decades and given the pattern for the past 12-14 months, who can argue with them? An earlier post said that Brett Anderson was going to bust. Not necessarily. He is calling for a mega torch in northeastern Canada and that is exactly what that region is getting.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Here's a link to a story from the Ottawa Citizen newspaper describing how mild the conditions have been up here, and how mild and dry they're forecast to remain.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/weather-watch/Capital+three+month+forecast+looking+warm/4053512/story.html

[stormguy80]

It is ironic. All the global warming skeptics in the US, where there are generally more of them, are getting the cold while those in Canada who are more concerned about warming are getting the mild weather. In other words both sides have ammunition to say "I told you so".

Got to love how everyone here is so excited about Bastardi switching gears and how it looks like January might end up cold and snowy for areas that frankly don't need it. The map above speaks pages. Maine is still forecast to be above normal, as is northern Vermont, the very places that rely on cold and snow for their economy. Northeast Canada is torching like mad as a result of the same block that is providing people in the south with snow. The eastern half of Hudson Bay is still open water in early January! Labrador has lakes that haven't even frozen over and some of the isolated communities up there actually rely on ice in the winter in order to get from village to village. All-in-all, this is an awful pattern and one that is frankly playing right into the hands of those up here in Canada who claim that our winters are steadily getting milder. They have always claimed that it is the higher latitudes that will see the most pronounced warming in the coming years and decades and given the pattern for the past 12-14 months, who can argue with them? An earlier post said that Brett Anderson was going to bust. Not necessarily. He is calling for a mega torch in northeastern Canada and that is exactly what that region is getting.

[Analog96]

Got to love how everyone here is so excited about Bastardi switching gears and how it looks like January might end up cold and snowy for areas that frankly don't need it. The map above speaks pages. Maine is still forecast to be above normal, as is northern Vermont, the very places that rely on cold and snow for their economy. Northeast Canada is torching like mad as a result of the same block that is providing people in the south with snow. The eastern half of Hudson Bay is still open water in early January! Labrador has lakes that haven't even frozen over and some of the isolated communities up there actually rely on ice in the winter in order to get from village to village. All-in-all, this is an awful pattern and one that is frankly playing right into the hands of those up here in Canada who claim that our winters are steadily getting milder. They have always claimed that it is the higher latitudes that will see the most pronounced warming in the coming years and decades and given the pattern for the past 12-14 months, who can argue with them? An earlier post said that Brett Anderson was going to bust. Not necessarily. He is calling for a mega torch in northeastern Canada and that is exactly what that region is getting.

A lot of what you just wrote is not correct, however. Northern Vermont and Interior Maine probably get more snow when their temperatures are above normal in January. Up there, in a "cold" January, most of the snow gets squashed way South.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

It is ironic. All the global warming skeptics in the US, where there are generally more of them, are getting the cold while those in Canada who are more concerned about warming are getting the mild weather. In other words both sides have ammunition to say "I told you so".

Good point. The weather outside a person's front door often shapes the way he or she thinks. The irony is that the same thing that is causing the cold in the US and Europe is causing the warmth in northeast Canada - the block. Neither side in the debate is thinking globally, but rather locally.

[Analog96]

Good point. The weather outside a person's front door often shapes the way he or she thinks. The irony is that the same thing that is causing the cold in the US and Europe is causing the warmth in northeast Canada - the block. Neither side in the debate is thinking globally, but rather locally.

But wouldn't that debunk "GLOBAL" warming? If it's not happening over the vast majority of the globe, it can't be global!

[Neblizzard]

She's referencing his luckbox forecast of no U.S. hurricane landfalls.

I know LC personally, and he's a damn good forecaster for sure. He did extremely well last winter as well....

[Nikolai]

Got to love how everyone here is so excited about Bastardi switching gears and how it looks like January might end up cold and snowy for areas that frankly don't need it. The map above speaks pages. Maine is still forecast to be above normal, as is northern Vermont, the very places that rely on cold and snow for their economy. Northeast Canada is torching like mad as a result of the same block that is providing people in the south with snow. The eastern half of Hudson Bay is still open water in early January! Labrador has lakes that haven't even frozen over and some of the isolated communities up there actually rely on ice in the winter in order to get from village to village. All-in-all, this is an awful pattern and one that is frankly playing right into the hands of those up here in Canada who claim that our winters are steadily getting milder. They have always claimed that it is the higher latitudes that will see the most pronounced warming in the coming years and decades and given the pattern for the past 12-14 months, who can argue with them? An earlier post said that Brett Anderson was going to bust. Not necessarily. He is calling for a mega torch in northeastern Canada and that is exactly what that region is getting.

Noone cares about a few eskimos. Bring on the cold for AMERICA!