DCMetroWinston Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Based on this forecast, AccuWeather.com Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi says this month could turn out to be the coldest January for the nation as a whole since 1985. While there has been outstanding regionalized cold in January in recent years, Bastardi points out that the U.S. has not experienced this type of coast-to-coast cold since the 1980s. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43933/this-january-could-be-coldest.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Based on this forecast, AccuWeather.com Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi says this month could turn out to be the coldest January for the nation as a whole since 1985. While there has been outstanding regionalized cold in January in recent years, Bastardi points out that the U.S. has not experienced this type of coast-to-coast cold since the 1980s. http://www.accuweath...-be-coldest.asp thanks JB for pointing out what some Mets have been saying for weeks now. $$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSGolf Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No disrespect intended...I read both forums...but why is there such animosity between accuweather and this forum...and between everyone and the weather channel. I realize the weather channel has become more of a tv show now with less actual weather...just curious....also I had the pleasure of having Dr Jon Nese as a professor in college and wondered if anyone knows where he is at nowadays. Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Didnt JB say January would be a blowtorch and winter would end in the east in Dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Dr. Nese is, as far as I know, still a professor at PSU. I had him two years ago for a forecasting class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Didnt JB say January would be a blowtorch and winter would end in the east in Dec? Yes he did...How soon he forgets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Based on this forecast, AccuWeather.com Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi says this month could turn out to be the coldest January for the nation as a whole since 1985. While there has been outstanding regionalized cold in January in recent years, Bastardi points out that the U.S. has not experienced this type of coast-to-coast cold since the 1980s. http://www.accuweath...-be-coldest.asp I don't believe it should be viewed negatively when a forecaster changes his/her forecast to reflect the latest guidance/developments. I believe it is better to do so than to stick to a forecast that has little or no chance of verifying. So, I don't believe there is anything wrong with JB's or other forecasters' making adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Didnt JB say January would be a blowtorch and winter would end in the east in Dec? Yes, but since this is a "good bust" by most that follow him all will be forgiven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Jon Nese is still a professor at PSU. I am actually going to TA one of his classes this upcoming semester No disrespect intended...I read both forums...but why is there such animosity between accuweather and this forum...and between everyone and the weather channel. I realize the weather channel has become more of a tv show now with less actual weather...just curious....also I had the pleasure of having Dr Jon Nese as a professor in college and wondered if anyone knows where he is at nowadays. Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Didnt JB say January would be a blowtorch and winter would end in the east in Dec? yep, he said that it was going to be wild for the east coast until Christmas then winter would be over. Brett Anderson went with a megatorch, he's going to be megawrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 So, were there any prominent forecasters who foresaw a cold East Coast January before December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So, were there any prominent forecasters who called for widespread East Coast cold before December? Ellinwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No disrespect intended...I read both forums...but why is there such animosity between accuweather and this forum...and between everyone and the weather channel. I realize the weather channel has become more of a tv show now with less actual weather...just curious....also I had the pleasure of having Dr Jon Nese as a professor in college and wondered if anyone knows where he is at nowadays. Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk Accuweather tends to overhype everything in order to turn that into $$$$ from marketing. Every small threat will somehow turn into a big east coast storm that will cause a blizzard and shut down large portions of the area for weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is their forecast (ACCUWEATHER) http://www.accuweather.com/video/685590899001/thanksgiving-to-christmas-may-be-the-worst-of-easts-winter.asp?channel=vbbastaj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ellinwood December, yes... January (and February)... no. This reinvigorated block caught almost all mets by surprise as early as mid-December. There wasn't any expectation to have the extreme blocking last into January. Here was my original call back on October 3rd (which was warmer than others, especially in the Northwest and Northern Plains): ...and the mid-December update, with the thoughts that the we could torch after we got rid of the block: ...and finally the "harsh reality" outlook, showing how the blocking pattern will dominate the month: There really isn't any good Niña/AO/NAO analog for this January... unless we can get a nice ridge out west and aboves in that region by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Posted this one not too long ago in another thread. To put Bastardi's "forecast" in context: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't believe it should be viewed negatively when a forecaster changes his/her forecast to reflect the latest guidance/developments. I believe it is better to do so than to stick to a forecast that has little or no chance of verifying. So, I don't believe there is anything wrong with JB's or other forecasters' making adjustments. strongly agree.... ...however, hes a little late to the party and to have a new thread for this is flat out ridiculous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSGolf Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Jon Nese is still a professor at PSU. I am actually going to TA one of his classes this upcoming semester I took his Intro to Meteorology as an elective during my Freshman year (this was in Fall of 96) and he lived next door to a good friend of mine so I saw him quite often. Not only extremely knowledgeable but a heck of a nice guy as well. He would always make time to discuss/answer questions I had. I know he was on WBRE (local NBC station based out of Scranton, then a few years later I heard he moved and saw him on The Weather Channel. Thanks for the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Posted this one not too long ago in another thread. To put Bastardi's "forecast" in context: Colder than 1985 would be a top 10 coldest January.... I find it funny that I made this exact forecast yesterday (coldest Jan for U.S. since at least 1985). Not that I think Joe is copying me or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Going to be sweet having the coldest January in a quarter century and no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It would be funny if it got warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hasnt the last quarter century been uber warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 December, yes... January (and February)... no. This reinvigorated block caught almost all mets by surprise as early as mid-December. There wasn't any expectation to have the extreme blocking last into January. i didnt issue a forecast but my "thoughts" always included the idea that the block has been persistent for some time now.. why did people ignore that? just because nina says blocking disappears? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hasnt the last quarter century been uber warm? Yes, there have been few cold Januaries in the past 25 years. However, Jan 1985 was impressively cold...10th coldest on record for the U.S. If we got close to that or beat it, that would be quite the feat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Didnt JB say January would be a blowtorch and winter would end in the east in Dec? Not sure about blow torch.....but I recall him saying Dec would be winter for the big cities....warmer in Jan...Feb...with some cold in March. He is going to bust on his LR for Jan in the NE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It would be funny if it got warm Don't put it past mother nature to pull a fast one. The -NAO is expected to weaken, and it'll be funny if come February all of this superblock talk becomes "how the heck did the NAO get so positive?". With a moderate Nina still raging, this winter will sure remain interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't believe it should be viewed negatively when a forecaster changes his/her forecast to reflect the latest guidance/developments. I believe it is better to do so than to stick to a forecast that has little or no chance of verifying. So, I don't believe there is anything wrong with JB's or other forecasters' making adjustments. I agree completely, that should not be viewed as negative. Also if the Greenland block hadn't re-established itself it would be warming up. I originally went with the warmer 2nd half of winter as well. It just shows he is going with the trends, because I'll say now the trend was not cold, cold cold. Last week. AO - Arctic Oscillation is just now today showing a increasingly negative trend. But I agree with it now as there is much more evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Didnt JB say January would be a blowtorch and winter would end in the east in Dec? I cant understand this mindset at all, what should he just stick with a forecast that he now believes to be wrong. Everyone acknowledges long-term forecasting isn't an exact science. If he sees evidence pointing to a very cold january now, should he just ignore it, put his head in the sand, and stick with warmer? What do you think he should do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Going to be sweet having the coldest January in a quarter century and no snow. Yeah it's like a party with no alcohol. We're going to be paying for 2009-2010 for many years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yea, I remember in dec of 05 accuweather came out with a forecast map that had "much below" for Jan 06 temperature in a good chunk of the east. Then it turned out to be the warmest January on record for the lower 48. Accuweather tends to overhype everything in order to turn that into $$ from marketing. Every small threat will somehow turn into a big east coast storm that will cause a blizzard and shut down large portions of the area for weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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