NYC vs. BOS vs. DCA Snow Climo

[Mercurial]

How's about comparing DC to Baltimore to NYC? Like someone said there's a more rapid change in snowfall as you go NW of Balt vs NW of DC

[psuhoffman]

PA and MD's highest points are in the 3000's...VA is somwhat higher...both NYC and DC generally enjoy rapid improvement in sky conditions when the wind backs around to west...

yes but those 3000 ft points are in extreme southern central PA and western MD. Pretty far removed from the NYC meso scale climate. The mtns that have a more direct impact on the NYC region are more in the 2000-2500 range in the Poconos. yes this hurts and is why a west wind dries out like you said. But during actual storms it is not nearly as damaging as the 4000 ft mtns the same distance to the SW of DC. THis seems to be taking the same trajectory as the previous debate. Again I am not arguing that NYC is hurt by the higher elevations to your west, it is. The issue is that someone pointed out the extreme higher snowfall in places NW of NYC at high elevations. My point was those places with 1000 ft elevations 30 miles NW of NYC do not have significantly higher mtns ( and I mean mtns more then 2000 feet higher) directly to their west to create downsloping. The higher elevations west of DC have that to deal with. The issue isnt that NYC is not hurt by the same problems with the Appalachians, the issue is DC is hurt MORE because the mtns that lie in the prevailing upstream windflow are higher then the mtns in NYC's upstream winds. Not sure how that is something up for debate as its simple fact.

[psuhoffman]

It's all basically applesauce...here are the averages again, since '64...

Average Annual Snowfall since the 1963-64 Winter

Measurements at Dulles Begin

(47 Seasons)

Upton, Long Island: 31.3"

Washington Dulles: 22.8"

Washington National: 16.5"

That's no elevation, close to water Upton, 60 miles east of NYC.

But what does Upton have to do with the debate about comparing the DC metro to the NYC metro???

NYC has 4 official reporting stations in its metro area. They range from 22-28" in their average. I realize there are some places north of the city and west that average over 30". I also know places in Long Island average 30-34". Just like there are places right on the south shore and along the Jersey Coast that average 20".

DC has 3 reporting stations in the metro and they average out to 20". Again I just dont understand why this debate is even necessary. The stats are what they are. NYC does avg more snow then DC and by a significant margin, why do many in NYC feel the need to exaggerate and stretch it even more then it really is? Statistics dont lie, if you avg the 4 official reporting sites for NYC you get an average of 26". If you do the same for DC you get 20". Its that simple. I just dont get the spinning going on with no statistical data to support it.

[Zelocita Weather]

yes but those 3000 ft points are in extreme southern central PA and western MD. Pretty far removed from the NYC meso scale climate. The mtns that have a more direct impact on the NYC region are more in the 2000-2500 range in the Poconos. yes this hurts and is why a west wind dries out like you said. But during actual storms it is not nearly as damaging as the 4000 ft mtns the same distance to the SW of DC. THis seems to be taking the same trajectory as the previous debate. Again I am not arguing that NYC is hurt by the higher elevations to your west, it is. The issue is that someone pointed out the extreme higher snowfall in places NW of NYC at high elevations. My point was those places with 1000 ft elevations 30 miles NW of NYC do not have significantly higher mtns ( and I mean mtns more then 2000 feet higher) directly to their west to create downsloping. The higher elevations west of DC have that to deal with. The issue isnt that NYC is not hurt by the same problems with the Appalachians, the issue is DC is hurt MORE because the mtns that lie in the prevailing upstream windflow are higher then the mtns in NYC's upstream winds. Not sure how that is something up for debate as its simple fact.

Another most 'black and white' less subjective way of looking at it is as follows:

Snwofall can be erratic and highly variable even over decades..

However temperature & total precip are great indicators and much less apt for error:

City: Avg Temp for Month : Avg Precip for Month

NYC/NJ (New Brunswick,NJ) : Dec: 3.90 QPF, 35F Avg Temp, Jan: 4.1 QPF, 30F Avg Temp, Feb: 3.0 QPF, 32F Avg Temp

DC (DC): Dec 3.05 QPF, 39.5F Avg Temp, Jan: 3.2 QPF, 34.9F Avg Temp, Feb: 2.75 QPF, 38.3F Avg Temp

Not only does NJ/NYC have much lower temps BUT also averages more precip during the winter months. The combination of both these factors obviously would cause a large jump in average snow between regions.

I think the winter vs. summer precip spread is even more pronounced as you head into S NE. (As avg winter temps are almost the same between Inland C NJ & BOS, but the increased precip gives BOS the extra snow).

[psuhoffman]

Upton is a little snowier than NYC...I'd estimate about 4" per average year snowier...but I didn't add up the city #'s like I did for these 3...maybe later.

I did earlier in the thread

Central Park 28"

EWR: 27

JFK: 23

LGA: 26

DC locations

BWI: 21

DCA: 17

IAD: 23

[psuhoffman]

I just wanted to provide you with a close to sea level station east of NYC...not contaminated by increases in altitude.

fair enough I apologize if I came off as questioning your motives.

[psuhoffman]

Another most 'black and white' less subjective way of looking at it is as follows:

Snwofall can be erratic and highly variable even over decades..

However temperature & total precip are great indicators and much less apt for error:

City: Avg Temp for Month : Avg Precip for Month

NYC/NJ (New Brunswick,NJ) : Dec: 3.90 QPF, 35F Avg Temp, Jan: 4.1 QPF, 30F Avg Temp, Feb: 3.0 QPF, 32F Avg Temp

DC (DC): Dec 3.05 QPF, 39.5F Avg Temp, Jan: 3.2 QPF, 34.9F Avg Temp, Feb: 2.75 QPF, 38.3F Avg Temp

Not only does NJ/NYC have much lower temps BUT also averages more precip during the winter months. The combination of both these factors obviously would cause a large jump in average snow between regions.

I think the winter vs. summer precip spread is even more pronounced as you head into S NE. (As avg winter temps are almost the same between Inland C NJ & BOS, but the increased precip gives BOS the extra snow).

for the love of god please stop using DCA in comparisons to NYC, especially when you use a NJ location as representative of NYC. That is as skewed as if I use IAD and compare it to JFK.

[psuhoffman]

keep this in mind, I think many in the NYC area argue with the stats for the NYC area because they feel the reporting stations are "low" in their totals and not a true representation of what NYC averages.

I agree 100 percent with this and its probably true. The reason I know this is because its the same problem down in the DC area. DCA especially but having lived 2 miles from IAD for 10 years I can also tell you that IAD reports very low a lot. BWI seems to be more fair in how they report snowfall compared to surrounding locations. However, IAD usually was an inch or two, and sometimes 3 lower then I was in storms when I lived there. Same if you look at coop reports in the area.

So remember, while you think NYC avg snowfall should be higher then what your reporting stations give you credit for, you are failing to take into account that its the same deal in DC. DCA especially skews the data low for DC also. So if you want to throw out what the data actually shows, or play the game of taking your highest reporting station and using that, then you can not hold the DC area to a different standard.

Some here are trying to take the highest station in the NYC metro and compare it to the lowest in DC and say that is even.

[Isotherm]

I did earlier in the thread

Central Park 28"

EWR: 27

JFK: 23

LGA: 26

DC locations

BWI: 21

DCA: 17

IAD: 23

That geographic spread between stations is much larger for DCA. If we're going to throw BWI in, might as well throw White Plains, NY in as well, which averages in the low-mid 30s.

[psuhoffman]

You and I are not in any major disagreement. I think posters from both the DC and NYC area are slightly dismayed by the totals that come out of their local airports and believe their particular location is x inches snowier than the official city site.

exactly and my last post was about that. I think the disconnect is the double standard being applied. The NYC area thinks that their official reporting stations are too low so they naturally want to take the highest one and make that indicative of their avg. That is fine, but then they do not apply that same logic to the DC area. They take the lowest avg in the entire area and say that is indicative and a fair estimate for DC. That is the part that confuses me, the double standard of how the data is used and applied.

[psuhoffman]

That geographic spread between stations is much larger for DCA. If we're going to throw BWI in, might as well throw White Plains, NY in as well, which averages in the low-mid 30s.

Newark NJ to JFK is not that much less then going from BWI to National. All 3 are in the metro areas and are not at high elevations. The NY metro has one station located more inland and west of the city (Newark) and DC has one station in the same situation IAD. You are right its not perfectly fair but its not horribly skewed either. I did not pick the locations, they are what they are. I am just citing the official data for both metro areas. Play with the data however you want but its all conjectures and not fact once you start to manipulate things. I know NYC's real average is higher then what those stations indicate, but so is DC's. How much more is impossible to say because we only have the data we have.

[Nikolai]

keep this in mind, I think many in the NYC area argue with the stats for the NYC area because they feel the reporting stations are "low" in their totals and not a true representation of what NYC averages.

I agree 100 percent with this and its probably true. The reason I know this is because its the same problem down in the DC area. DCA especially but having lived 2 miles from IAD for 10 years I can also tell you that IAD reports very low a lot. BWI seems to be more fair in how they report snowfall compared to surrounding locations. However, IAD usually was an inch or two, and sometimes 3 lower then I was in storms when I lived there. Same if you look at coop reports in the area.

So remember, while you think NYC avg snowfall should be higher then what your reporting stations give you credit for, you are failing to take into account that its the same deal in DC. DCA especially skews the data low for DC also. So if you want to throw out what the data actually shows, or play the game of taking your highest reporting station and using that, then you can not hold the DC area to a different standard.

Some here are trying to take the highest station in the NYC metro and compare it to the lowest in DC and say that is even.

Central Park definitely does not report low, having lived one block away going on three winters now. I doubt there was any change from the time I moved to NYC from beforehand... my measurements have always been very close to the park's (and when they're not, they tend to even out--it will report generously on one event and skimp on another, but it's definitely very accurate overall). The problem comes from posters like Analog96 who say they get 32" when they never had anywhere near that amount, as well as other posters from the suburbs. Central Park is an accurate reporting station, DCA is not (or if it was, Central Park is still reflective of a much larger area than DCA, which simply reflects a few feet of tarmac below jet planes).

[psuhoffman]

Central Park definitely does not report low, having lived one block away going on three winters now. I doubt there was any change from the time I moved to NYC from beforehand... my measurements have always been very close to the park's (and when they're not, they tend to even out--it will report generously on one event and skimp on another, but it's definitely very accurate overall). The problem comes from posters like Analog96 who say they get 32" when they never had anywhere near that amount, as well as other posters from the suburbs. Central Park is an accurate reporting station, DCA is not (or if it was, Central Park is still reflective of a much larger area than DCA, which simply reflects a few feet of tarmac below jet planes).

totally agree

[psuhoffman]

Central Park has been doing a good job in recent years; there were some problems during the 20th century there...

this is probably true of every station as the people keeping records changes over time.

[simpsonsbuff]

Newark NJ to JFK is not that much less then going from BWI to National. All 3 are in the metro areas and are not at high elevations. The NY metro has one station located more inland and west of the city (Newark) and DC has one station in the same situation IAD. You are right its not perfectly fair but its not horribly skewed either. I did not pick the locations, they are what they are. I am just citing the official data for both metro areas. Play with the data however you want but its all conjectures and not fact once you start to manipulate things. I know NYC's real average is higher then what those stations indicate, but so is DC's. How much more is impossible to say because we only have the data we have.

The distance from HPN to JFK (29) is the same as from DCA to BWI (30). The distance from JFK to EWR is less (21).

[Isotherm]

Look, we're all prone to this and it's like rooting for baseball teams -- we're going to defend our local areas as much as we possibly can, and that's understandable. I think at this point we can agree to a few things: 1) NYC does not average more than 50% DC's snowfall, (I personally think the percentage is closer to 35-40% when comparing the region as a whole), 2) NYC is probably closer to DC than BOS in terms of avg snowfall, 3) The airport reporting stations are generally slightly less/underdone compared to the majority of suburbia around the cities in question.

[psuhoffman]

The distance from HPN to JFK (29) is the same as from DCA to BWI (30). The distance from JFK to EWR is less (21).

What do you want me to do move the airports so we can get a better average?

I know places north of NYC average more snow. Guess what places north of DC average more snow also. Damascus MD is only 20 miles NW of DC and averages about 28". Mt. Airy is only 30 miles NW and averages about 32". If there was an official station in Mt Airy and not National DC's avg would be like 26" instead of 20. Where the stations are does skew the data but I have no control over that. If we start speculating over how much we "think" the area gets it starts to get really subjective.

[Nikolai]

The distance from HPN to JFK (29) is the same as from DCA to BWI (30). The distance from HPN to EWR is less (21).

If you're comparing DCA to BWI then compare JFK to something along the CT shoreline... BWI is NE of DC, not N or W. A more apt comparison would be with Leesburg, which averages significantly more snow than DCA (around 25"/year or so).

I've rehashed this thread so very very many times while posting on the wx boards. Before this decade, NYC and DC averaged roughly similar amounts. Since 2000, there has been a massive disparity, with NYC clearly the benefactor. While past climo (71-00) says both metro regions perform roughly the same, this decade has given a huge edge to NYC (averaging over 10" more per year than IAD). This isn't because of r/s issues, rather Miller Bs.

Conclusion: years with more Miller Bs generally favor NYC, while DC actually does better than NYC on r/s issues sometimes. This past decade has featured a plethora of late-developing systems, thus NYC has been snowier. Lacking Miller Bs (I suppose the general period 71-00 did, compared to other decades?) DC and NYC see roughly the same amount of snow.

[psuhoffman]

My how time flies...0z NAM is complete and has a nice snowstorm for L.I. after about hour 60...too bad I don't trust the NAM outside of 6 hours before the event...

I don't trust the NAM 6 hours AFTER the storm

[psuhoffman]

Look, we're all prone to this and it's like rooting for baseball teams -- we're going to defend our local areas as much as we possibly can, and that's understandable. I think at this point we can agree to a few things: 1) NYC does not average more than 50% DC's snowfall, (I personally think the percentage is closer to 35-40% when comparing the region as a whole), 2) NYC is probably closer to DC than BOS in terms of avg snowfall, 3) The airport reporting stations are generally slightly less/underdone compared to the majority of suburbia around the cities in question.

I agree with all of that.

[simpsonsbuff]

What do you want me to do move the airports so we can get a better average?

I know places north of NYC average more snow. Guess what places north of DC average more snow also. Damascus MD is only 20 miles NW of DC and averages about 28". Mt. Airy is only 30 miles NW and averages about 32". If there was an official station in Mt Airy and not National DC's avg would be like 26" instead of 20. Where the stations are does skew the data but I have no control over that. If we start speculating over how much we "think" the area gets it starts to get really subjective.

Snow is what it is... and averages are what they are. I don't know why people get so heated up over this...

[psuhoffman]

If you're comparing DCA to BWI then compare JFK to something along the CT shoreline... BWI is NE of DC, not N or W. A more apt comparison would be with Leesburg, which averages significantly more snow than DCA (around 25"/year or so).

I've rehashed this thread so very very many times while posting on the wx boards. Before this decade, NYC and DC averaged roughly similar amounts. Since 2000, there has been a massive disparity, with NYC clearly the benefactor. While past climo (71-00) says both metro regions perform roughly the same, this decade has given a huge edge to NYC (averaging over 10" more per year than IAD). This isn't because of r/s issues, rather Miller Bs.

Conclusion: years with more Miller Bs generally favor NYC, while DC actually does better than NYC on r/s issues sometimes. This past decade has featured a plethora of late-developing systems, thus NYC has been snowier. Lacking Miller Bs (I suppose the general period 71-00 did, compared to other decades?) DC and NYC see roughly the same amount of snow.

wow I almost forgot where this all started. Thanks for bringing it back.

The main point was that NYC's increased snowfall avg is more due to miller b's that develop too late in their poleward progression to affect DC. When it comes to R/S issues DC and NYC actually are a wash because NYC's latitude advantage is offset by DC's advantage being further inland.

[psuhoffman]

Though you can't write off those 10 years as a fluke...they're part of the climate record.

I personally do not write them off as a fluke, but I do think looking at 100 years of records those last 10 years were not indicative of normal for the 2 climates and things will smooth out and averages for DC and NYC will come more closely in line again over time. Probably not to where they were in 1990 but closer then they are now after this past stretch.

[Isotherm]

Conclusion: years with more Miller Bs generally favor NYC, while DC actually does better than NYC on r/s issues sometimes. This past decade has featured a plethora of late-developing systems, thus NYC has been snowier. Lacking Miller Bs (I suppose the general period 71-00 did, compared to other decades?) DC and NYC see roughly the same amount of snow.

That comparison is unfair however, considering the 70s and 80s were NYC's two least snowy decades in its entire 140 years of climatological records. You'd have to pick up DC's two worst decades to make a reasonable comparison.

Here some good charts on NYC below from Yehuda. Note that the 70s-80s are a pretty severe abberation from the norm:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/520-new-york-city-snowfall/

[Isotherm]

I wrote a lenghty, stat fiiled post on Eastern commenting on the exceptional snowfall increases at both Logan in Boston starting in 1992-93 and Upton starting in 1993-94. I included ACY in the discussion but noted the increase had not reached down to S Jersey yet. Then the 2009-10 winter took place and ACY set a seasonal record and they're already past their seasonal norm on this winter....perhaps the increase is working its way down the coast.

William, how were the winters of 1996-2000 at Upton? For my local area, we had the two big winters 93-96, then a dud period, with a real increase beginning in 2000 for Monmouth County.

[ORH_wxman]

I wrote a lenghty, stat fiiled post on Eastern commenting on the exceptional snowfall increases at both Logan in Boston starting in 1992-93 and Upton starting in 1993-94. I included ACY in the discussion but noted the increase had not reached down to S Jersey yet. Then the 2009-10 winter took place and ACY set a seasonal record and they're already past their seasonal norm on this winter....perhaps the increase is working its way down the coast.

I had a great thread about avg snowfall in this area too and included decade by decade and all sorts of other fun stuff...but its lost on the eastern server.

I think BOS averaged somewhere in the 35" range for snow in the 1980s but 48" in the 1990s and 47" in the 2000s.

[psuhoffman]

That comparison is unfair however, considering the 70s and 80s were NYC's two least snowy decades in its entire 140 years of climatological records. You'd have to pick up DC's two worst decades to make a reasonable comparison.

Here some good charts on NYC below from Yehuda. Note that the 70s-80s are a pretty severe abberation from the norm:

http://www.americanw...-city-snowfall/

yea the 70's and 80's were bad in NYC but they were not particularly great in DC either. Plus the 2000-2010 period was unreal and definitely not avg either. NYC actually averaged more then State College PA during that period. That is definitely NOT normal. Actually the snow drought for UNV is part of the same problem for the DC area. A lot of times the storms that cut due north or hug the coast provide a few inches of snow/ice to this area while thumping the State College area. Being much further west the DC area can actually do ok on those type storms on the front or back end. The area I am actually does really well and can get a good dump from storms that are mostly rain in NYC but pound central PA. Those storms have been missing the last 10 years.

[Isotherm]

http://www.bnl.gov/w...hlySnowfall.htm

94 and 96 were great. 97 and 98 were bad. '99 was about a C-. But after the drought...to have even two nice winters in a decade was judged a small miracle around here...

Ok, thanks. So it appears we had a jump in snowfall for 2 winters in the mid 90s, then a few crappy winters while BOS continued to have the goods, and by 2000, everyone CNJ northward was sitting pretty. If the same pattern continues, SNJ and mid atlantic will have their 2nd consecutive good winter this year, then a few more crappy winters, and by 2015, everyone DC northeastward will be frozen over.

[ORH_wxman]

'93, '94, and '96 were pretty neat in eastern MA...

There were actually only 4 above avg snow seasons in the '90s at BOS, but those 3 you mentioned were so ridiculous they really brought up the mean. The only other above avg season being '96-'97 at 51.9".

[Isotherm]

yea the 70's and 80's were bad in NYC but they were not particularly great in DC either. Plus the 2000-2010 period was unreal and definitely not avg either. NYC actually averaged more then State College PA during that period. That is definitely NOT normal. Actually the snow drought for UNV is part of the same problem for the DC area. A lot of times the storms that cut due north or hug the coast provide a few inches of snow/ice to this area while thumping the State College area. Being much further west the DC area can actually do ok on those type storms on the front or back end. The area I am actually does really well and can get a good dump from storms that are mostly rain in NYC but pound central PA. Those storms have been missing the last 10 years.

Yeah the past decade has been incredible. My average in CNJ was 35.3" for the 2001-2010 period, about 3" snowier than 1961-1970 if you go by smoothed avgs. The past 3 decades have featured extremes on both ends of the spectrum. I definitely recall many coastal huggers that kept DCA snow and NYC rain in the past (at least for part of the event).