psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Actually taking this back a few steps, the point I was originally interested in supporting was that the 1.9 degrees in latitude between the two cities makes a significant difference given similar elevation. Do you agree with this? The difference in snowfall was one of the outcomes of that difference in lattitude, but you have bucked the conventional wisdom by finding ways to show that there is not a material difference in the snowfall between NYC and DC (and their respective regions). I still maintain that there is a 40 - 50% difference, not only between the cities, but between the regions on average, and you still maintain that there is not. I don't see this progressing any further without better data, and even then I doubt that you would accept any contrary to your position, but its been an interesting discussion. First of all what is significant? I think Will's comments are fair and I am willing to accept 27 and 20 as a fair regional avg. for NYC and DC. I would go more towards 21 for DC but this is getting really trivial at that point. Either way depending on how you look at the statistic that means DC gets 74% of NYC's avg snowfall. That could be construed as either 26% less or 35% depending on if you are talking about the difference of DC's avg snowfall or NYC's avg snowfall. I will give you the benefit of the difference and go with 35% and find this acceptable. Higher then what I was stating but still within what I would consider statistically supported. I would consider a 25% difference significant myself. Of course I agree that the latitude differences make a difference. That was never my issue. If you are arguing that 1.9 degrees of latitude makes a huge difference in snowfall then I am not going to take issue. What I was talking about was an issue with 2 posters that insinuated that the NYC area averages 50% or more snowfall then the DC area. The problem with this is not over latitude. There are other factors. We were debating over the avg snowfall for DC and NY not how much the lattitude matters. Some have made statements about accounting for the proximity to the ocean and elevation. But those are factors in climo. If NYC was as far inland as DC is at their lattitude NYC would avg 35" of snow and this argument would be moot. Furthermore, if NYC was located 50 miles inland and was at say 800 feet elevation, NYC would average 40" of snow. But that is not the case, NYC is located right on the coast while DC is located inland. This gives DC an advantage. Lattitude is not the only factor. Roanoke VA is significantly further south then DC but they average more snowfall. If all other climo factors like elevation and distance from water were equal NYC would avg even more snowfall then DC by comparison, but they are not. DC has an advantage that mitigates that latitude different to a small degree. Perhaps we are not as far apart as I thought but are focusing on different issues here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If you take NYC as the center of this region and give a radius of 30-35 miles on all sides you would get the following averages: Immediate NYC Metro (Suburbs within 10-15 miles, all boroughs, etc.) average 27-28". C/E LI average 28-30" C NJ coast/E C NJ average 24-27" N/C NJ /N NJ/ S NY State average 30-38" Average all sections within the 35 miles radius= 29 inches If you take DC as the center of this region and give a radius of 30-35 miles on all sides you would get the following averages: DC Metro (and immediate burbs on all sides) average 18" Far SE/E burbs 17" Far W burbs 22-24" Far N burbs 22-24" Far NE/SW burbs 20-22" Average all sections within the 35 miles radius= 20 inches 45% more on average when comparing regions The NJ/NY border around West Milford NJ/Greenwood Lake NY/Warwick NY avg around the 45-50" range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 If you are going out as far as 35 miles...DC's far northern burbs average more than 22-24"...probably more like 24-28". You are starting to get into the central MD hills. Actually even more then that. Upper Montgomery County has elevations around 700 feet and avg 28". Thats about 20 miles NW of DC. If we are going out to 35 miles like Zelo wants to do, that actually gets into places like Mt Airy that Avg about 32". There are also places about 30 miles west of DC near Perculville in VA that avg about 27". Also not sure where he gets his 17" average for south and east of DC. Does he not realize places east of DC avg more then DCA. Real DC avg's SE suburbs 18" DC itself 20" Western Burbs 23" Far N/W burbs 28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 The NJ/NY border around West Milford NJ/Greenwood Lake NY/Warwick NY avg around the 45-50" range.. I average 40 inches here but I am not including that in the DC climo discussion so lets not get carried away here. Each region has its outliers. I could pull some locations at high elevations along the blue ridge 30 miles west of DC that are near 30" also....I think we should stick to places more indicative of where most people actually live in the areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The NJ/NY border around West Milford NJ/Greenwood Lake NY/Warwick NY avg around the 45-50" range.. Isn't that getting outside of the radius? (beyond 35 mi) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 you can also add the hills of nw jersey . westmilford-highland lake areas probably avg about 50+ and are only 40 or so miles from nyc The increase in snowfall averages from the city to out here are quite drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Isn't that getting outside of the radius? (beyond 35 mi) I would say its 35-40 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I average 40 inches here but I am not including that in the DC climo discussion so lets not get carried away here. Each region has its outliers. I could pull some locations at high elevations along the blue ridge 30 miles west of DC that are near 30" also....I think we should stick to places more indicative of where most people actually live in the areas. I thought you had to go to Garret County to avg 40"+ in MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The NJ/NY border around West Milford NJ/Greenwood Lake NY/Warwick NY avg around the 45-50" range.. A good part of West Milford NJ has elevations in the 1000' to 1400' above sea level range, and is located only 25 to 35 air miles northwest of NYC. Snowfall averages approximately 50" to 55" in this area and has exceeded 100" in a season several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 If you are going out as far as 35 miles...DC's far northern burbs average more than 22-24"...probably more like 24-28". You are starting to get into the central MD hills. also... if we really take his idea and apply if evenly I think NYC is screwed because I am pretty sure the average snowfall for places 35 miles southeast of NYC is about 0 considering its hard to get snow to accumulate over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I would say its 35-40 miles. Yeah that's really getting outside the radius. I would agree with psuhoffman that a radius like that is a bit too far. That would be like using ORH snowfall for BOS metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I average 40 inches here but I am not including that in the DC climo discussion so lets not get carried away here. Each region has its outliers. I could pull some locations at high elevations along the blue ridge 30 miles west of DC that are near 30" also....I think we should stick to places more indicative of where most people actually live in the areas. Its not a matter of it being an outlier. Once you cross the 25 mile radus outside NYC the averages dramatically increase. Im sure the same can be said about Boston. In Philly & DC the same cannot be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah that's really getting outside the radius. I would agree with psuhoffman that a radius like that is a bit too far. That would be like using ORH snowfall for BOS metro. Whats the distance from ORH to BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Isn't that getting outside of the radius? (beyond 35 mi) center of west milford is 27 miles as the crow flies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 I thought you had to go to Garret County to avg 40"+ in MD I live just northeast of that 36" in Carroll County NW of Baltimore. My elevation is 1000 feet, about 300 feet higher then the 36 in westminster. There is a coop up the road for Millers MD that is 200 feet lower. Their long term avg for records from 1981-2009 was 38.4, last year I got 101" and that put my average up to 39.8". That is likely skewed a bit high by last winter but this area is definitely between 37-38". But again its a local maximum and I would never say it was indicative of DC climo or should be included in their discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Whats the distance from ORH to BOS? 39 miles by the way the crow flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 A good part of West Milford NJ has elevations in the 1000' to 1400' above sea level range, and is located only 25 to 35 air miles northwest of NYC. Snowfall averages approximately 50" to 55" in this area and has exceeded 100" in a season several times. So are you guys just comparing within city limits? 25-35 miles in the NYC area is still considered the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I live just northeast of that 36" in Carroll County NW of Baltimore. My elevation is 1000 feet, about 300 feet higher then the 36 in westminster. There is a coop up the road for Millers MD that is 200 feet lower. Their long term avg for records from 1981-2009 was 38.4, last year I got 101" and that put my average up to 39.8". That is likely skewed a bit high by last winter but this area is definitely between 37-38". But again its a local maximum and I would never say it was indicative of DC climo or should be included in their discussion. Ahh thanks...that is probably the highest snowfall avg in the state anywhere east of Garrett County...1000+ feet in the hills near the PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 39 miles by the way the crow flies. Other then the Berks who has the snowiest climo in Mass.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Other then the Berks who has the snowiest climo in Mass.. That would be the hills just north of ORH...Ashburnham coop at 1160 feet averages 78" per year. There's likely spots in the 1300 foot range near that average over 80" per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Its not a matter of it being an outlier. Once you cross the 25 mile radus outside NYC the averages dramatically increase. Im sure the same can be said about Boston. In Philly & DC the same cannot be said. that would be a great point if we were arguing the average snowfall of places 30 miles NW of NYC with places 30 miles NW of DC but that was never the discussion. There are other factors that go into that. The higher elevations west of DC are not that high...plus they suffer from a snowshadow effect because of MUCH higher elevations to their west and sw. The places NW of NYC do not have that to deal with. The higher elevations around 1000 feet NW of Baltimore do have sharp snowfall avg increases like the ones you have. Avg snowfall goes from 23" to 36" in only 15 miles...I think that is pretty extreme, and comparable to avg's going from 28" to 45" in a short distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Regarding Long Island, I thought Islip only averaged 22" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 that would be a great point if we were arguing the average snowfall of places 30 miles NW of NYC with places 30 miles NW of DC but that was never the discussion. There are other factors that go into that. The higher elevations west of DC are not that high...plus they suffer from a snowshadow effect because of MUCH higher elevations to their west and sw. The places NW of NYC do not have that to deal with. The higher elevations around 1000 feet NW of Baltimore do have sharp snowfall avg increases like the ones you have. Avg snowfall goes from 23" to 36" in only 15 miles...I think that is pretty extreme, and comparable to avg's going from 28" to 45" in a short distance. Well dont forget we have a snowshadow effect with the Catskills.. If it wasnt for the Catskills places around here would double their average snowfall just from Lake Effect. I cant rememeber how many times I have seen Lake effect streamers go to die just NW of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Someone took down the Poconos and Kittatinnies? And I guess the Catskills are gone as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Even Cumberland just east of Garrett County only averages 35"; though once you head up the mountain to Frostburg, it is quite a different story... yea they have a snowshadow problem there being in the valley east of Garrett. My area actually gets some good oragraphic enhancement with the right wind directions and can do pretty good with clippers because we are far enough north not to have the bad downsloping off the WV mtns and the 1000 ft elevations helps enhance lift a bit. Cant tell you how many times a 1-2" snowfall in DC/Baltimore was 4-5" here, or a 3" snowfall there was 8" here. Last winter one storm in early December gave me 6" and Baltimore didn't get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Someone took down the Poconos and Kittatinnies? so you are going to compare the snowshadow affect from 2500 foot mtns with the one created by 5,000 ft mtns? OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 And I guess the Catskills are gone as well The Catskills are NORTH of you. I highly doubt the prevailing winds are out of the NW during an approaching storm? Its the mtns to your due west and southwest that affect your weather the most. The mtns to the west and sw of NYC are 2500 feet at their highest points. The mtns SW of DC are 4500 feet at their highest. It does make a difference. I have lived in both areas in my life and have seen the difference. This is silly anyways as its taking us away from the original discussion onto a side track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 also... if we really take his idea and apply if evenly I think NYC is screwed because I am pretty sure the average snowfall for places 35 miles southeast of NYC is about 0 considering its hard to get snow to accumulate over the ocean. Ocean effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well dont forget we have a snowshadow effect with the Catskills.. If it wasnt for the Catskills places around here would double their average snowfall just from Lake Effect. I cant rememeber how many times I have seen Lake effect streamers go to die just NW of me That is true up and down the coast, I would average 20" more a year if the central PA mtns didnt exist also but they do. The issue is not lake effect. The issue is the 4500 ft mtns in western VA and WV actually dry up real storms. Clippers completely get eaten alive by them. They even kill us in southern stream systems if they take the wrong track and jump to the coast at the wrong place. The precip from the west will dry up from the mtns and then the coastal precip sometimes gets going too far east. Its called the DC split and kills us sometimes. Trust me the higher mtns down here make a difference and hurt places immediately west of DC in a way they do not up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Avg snowfall goes from 23" to 36" in only 15 miles...I think that is pretty extreme, and comparable to avg's going from 28" to 45" in a short distance. Not really, considering NYC to West Milford is about 28" to 55". It's a fact that the further north one goes along the east coast, the less distance one needs to travel inland to reach large snowfall averages. The coast of Maine averages 50-60"/yr, once down to the BOS area, you've got to go about 20 miles inland for those averages, then into the NYC area, about 30-40 miles inland, then the DC area, at least 60-70 miles miles west, and Raleigh, a couple hundred miles west of them. I know this wasn't the arguement, but of course there's going to be a quicker increase in totals as one increases in latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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