NYC vs. BOS vs. DCA Snow Climo

[psuhoffman]

Not rare at all; happens many times in a normal winter, especially comparing NYC to DC. Look at climate averages and the stats support this. Include the inland burbs of NY and the differences are enormous, about 500% more snow on average than DC.

wow you are out of touch with reality. You can not compare the snowier suburbs of NYC area with the climaological low point of the entire DC area National Airport. NYC's average snowfall is higher then DC much more so because it cashes in on miller b storms and late developing storms much more so then storms that are all rain in DC and all snow in NYC.

If you want to be fair (your 500 percent comment is outrageous) lets compare fairly

Looking at the regions known minimum stations

DCA: 17"

JFK: 23"

Average areas

IAD: 22.3

Central Park 28"

If you want to compare the snowier NJ suburbs of NYC you have to compare them to the snowier MD suburbs of DC and Baltimore.

Most of Morris County NJ averages between 32-40" of snow

Most of upper Montgomery County MD and Carroll County MD average 28-35"

NYC area averages about 20% greater snowfall then the DC/Baltimore metro area as a whole.

Looking at why/how this difference is accomplished it is more from the tendancy of miller b storms and late developing clippers or miller a's (like the last storm) to miss the DC area and hit NYC. It is much less so from this area getting rain and NYC snow as it is almost just as likely that we get snow and you rain from a storm that hugs the coast like the storm early last December. The original post may have overstated the point but storms that are all rain or mostly rain in DC and stay all snow in NYC are relatively rare.

[A-L-E-X]

wow you are out of touch with reality. You can not compare the snowier suburbs of NYC area with the climaological low point of the entire DC area National Airport. NYC's average snowfall is higher then DC much more so because it cashes in on miller b storms and late developing storms much more so then storms that are all rain in DC and all snow in NYC.

If you want to be fair (your 500 percent comment is outrageous) lets compare fairly

Looking at the regions known minimum stations

DCA: 17"

JFK: 23"

Average areas

IAD: 22.3

Central Park 28"

If you want to compare the snowier NJ suburbs of NYC you have to compare them to the snowier MD suburbs of DC and Baltimore.

Most of Morris County NJ averages between 32-40" of snow

Most of upper Montgomery County MD and Carroll County MD average 28-35"

NYC area averages about 20% greater snowfall then the DC/Baltimore metro area as a whole.

Looking at why/how this difference is accomplished it is more from the tendancy of miller b storms and late developing clippers or miller a's (like the last storm) to miss the DC area and hit NYC. It is much less so from this area getting rain and NYC snow as it is almost just as likely that we get snow and you rain from a storm that hugs the coast like the storm early last December. The original post may have overstated the point but storms that are all rain or mostly rain in DC and stay all snow in NYC are relatively rare.

The difference being IAD is actually not within DC proper but all of those NYC stations are. I agree with you about DCA having snowfall measurement issues. We have that up here too lol.

[NorthShoreWx]

NYC area averages about 20% greater snowfall then the DC/Baltimore metro area as a whole.

I think 40% - 50% range is more accurate. Not sure how you are cherry picking your suburbs, and I don't have any time to apply to that exercise.

FWIW, I've been at my location for 15 winters and I calculated that if I don't get another flake of snow for the next 15 years, the 30 year average at that point will be about 19". What is the climo for DC or better yet for 50 miles east of DC?

[TowsonWeather]

I think 40% - 50% range is more accurate. Not sure how you are cherry picking your suburbs, and I don't have any time to apply to that exercise.

FWIW, I've been at my location for 15 winters and I calculated that if I don't get another flake of snow for the next 15 years, the 30 year average at that point will be about 19". What is the climo for DC or better yet for 50 miles east of DC?

LOL...convincing logic man.

"I don't have time to 'look stuff up' but my GUT tells me THIS number is more accurate"

Please. His point was entirely correct and - unlike yours - had actual factual and numerical support.

[psuhoffman]

The difference being IAD is actually not within DC proper but all of those NYC stations are. I agree with you about DCA having snowfall measurement issues. We have that up here too lol.

true a more fair comparison would be to use Newark NJ to compare with IAD but IAD's average is more indicative of most of the DC matro area including inside DC proper unless you are towards the river. Either way the original post I was responding to was a little crazy.

[Sundog]

LOL...convincing logic man.

"I don't have time to 'look stuff up' but my GUT tells me THIS number is more accurate"

Please. His point was entirely correct and - unlike yours - had actual factual and numerical support.

I don't think you know who Northshorewx is. He is not one to make up numbers on gut feelings.

[real]

The difference being IAD is actually not within DC proper but all of those NYC stations are. I agree with you about DCA having snowfall measurement issues. We have that up here too lol.

Yes, but he could have just as easily compared Central Park to Northwest Washington, very much the center of DC. The Hilly Northwest sections of DC probably average close to 25 inches per year. Consider Feb. 5, pretty sure American University had like 27 inches while DCA had 17. Either way, PSU Hoffman explained what I was going to say. I am not saying its not possible for it to be rain in DC while snow in Philly/New York, just not common that I can think of. Yes, NY stands a better chance of such a setup than Philly. I think in PD II Philly and points south changed to sleet at one point while New York stayed all snow. But, having lived in both New York and DC, I can rarely recall being in New York and calling a friend in DC who says, its 40 and raining there while New York is pure snow.

[NorthShoreWx]

LOL...convincing logic man.

"I don't have time to 'look stuff up' but my GUT tells me THIS number is more accurate"

Please. His point was entirely correct and - unlike yours - had actual factual and numerical support.

I wish more snow for you, but the 40% is accurate in an apples to apples comparison...and we have been through this exercise quantitatively in the past with these results. Its nothing personal...its about where you live and climatology.

You should compare the high ground NW of Baltimore to Orange County NY, not to a southwestern suburb of NYC.

If it makes you feel any better, the old rule of thumb was that avg snowfall increases about 50% from DC to NYC and then another 50% from NYC to BOS. All three towns see more to their north and west.

[Isotherm]

LOL...convincing logic man.

"I don't have time to 'look stuff up' but my GUT tells me THIS number is more accurate"

Please. His point was entirely correct and - unlike yours - had actual factual and numerical support.

His location averages about double what you do, and he's east of NYC. There's no question the immediate NYC/LI is significantly snowier than the immediate DC area (by at least 40% I'd say).

[Isotherm]

I wish more snow for you, but the 40% is accurate in an apples to apples comparison...and we have been through this exercise quantitatively in the past with these results. Its nothing personal...its about where you live and climatology.

You should compare the high ground NW of Baltimore to Orange County NY, not to a southwestern suburb of NYC.

If it makes you feel any better, the old rule of thumb was that avg snowfall increases about 50% from DC to NYC and then another 50% from NYC to BOS. All three towns see more to their north and west.

Correct, if you compare DC-NYC-BOS, there's about a 12" split between them.

[psuhoffman]

I think 40% - 50% range is more accurate. Not sure how you are cherry picking your suburbs, and I don't have any time to apply to that exercise.

FWIW, I've been at my location for 15 winters and I calculated that if I don't get another flake of snow for the next 15 years, the 30 year average at that point will be about 19". What is the climo for DC or better yet for 50 miles east of DC?

I love how math somehow becomes subjective when you do not like it. I got into this battle years ago on here and was amazed with the vehemence that some in the NYC area seem to defend some silly notion that their area just has to be VASTLY superior to the DC area in snowfall. NYC gets more snow then DC, no one argues that, but for some reason the amount always has to be exagerated. When it snows in DC and not NYC my friends from NY act like a cosmic injustice has been done. I do not feel that way when it snows in Richmond or Atlantic City and not my location. I will never understand the denial of basic mathmatical facts and statistics nor the reason behind this belief and defense of it i n the face of facts. In the end, believe what you want, and throw out my facts if you choose, but please know that saying something and believing it, does not actually make it true. (at least outside your own head)

[NorthShoreWx]

I love how math somehow becomes subjective when you do not like it. I got into this battle years ago on here and was amazed with the vehemence that some in the NYC area seem to defend some silly notion that their area just has to be VASTLY superior to the DC area in snowfall. NYC gets more snow then DC, no one argues that, but for some reason the amount always has to be exagerated. When it snows in DC and not NYC my friends from NY act like a cosmic injustice has been done. I do not feel that way when it snows in Richmond or Atlantic City and not my location. I will never understand the denial of basic mathmatical facts and statistics nor the reason behind this belief and defense of it i n the face of facts. In the end, believe what you want, and throw out my facts if you choose, but please know that saying something and believing it, does not actually make it true. (at least outside your own head)

Likewise.

[psuhoffman]

I don't think you know who Northshorewx is. He is not one to make up numbers on gut feelings.

I do not need to know "who" he is to know when a statement he makes is factually false and not mathmatically accurate.

[A-L-E-X]

I do not need to know "who" he is to know when a statement he makes is factually false and not mathmatically accurate.

You really cant get around the fact that more latitude usually equals more snow and cold.

[TowsonWeather]

I wish more snow for you, but the 40% is accurate in an apples to apples comparison...and we have been through this exercise quantitatively in the past with these results. Its nothing personal...its about where you live and climatology.

You should compare the high ground NW of Baltimore to Orange County NY, not to a southwestern suburb of NYC.

If it makes you feel any better, the old rule of thumb was that avg snowfall increases about 50% from DC to NYC and then another 50% from NYC to BOS. All three towns see more to their north and west.

I had almost 100 inches last year, so your snow wishes for me, however well-intentioned, are at this time unnecessary ;-)

Your 50% number simply isn't supported by the facts, no matter how you slice and dice it.

Furthermore, despite your attempts - whether unintended or not - to move the goalposts, the point under discussion here is how often NYC benefits from "extra" snow because of colder temps than DC. The statement that that happens relatively rarely and that a much bigger reason for the difference between DC and NYC's average annual snowfall totals has less to do with temps and much more to do with patterns - i.e. NYC gets hit by Miller Bs and other late-developing and "hooking" EC storms much more often, as was pointed out.

[A-L-E-X]

You really cant get around the fact that more latitude usually equals more snow and cold.

I was actually thinking of an IAD = EWR comparison. It's hard to really compare because NYC sprawls over three islands and one inland suburb (the Bronx.)

The only objective way I can think of comparing them is to take a 25 mile radius around NYC (or whatever radius you like) and take all the official locations within that radius and average them out.... then do the same around DCA. Feel free to modify that, it's just something I came up with off the top of my head.

[isnice]

You really cant get around the fact that more latitude usually equals more snow and cold.

Yes you can...mountains and the southern hemisphere

[psuhoffman]

I wish more snow for you, but the 40% is accurate in an apples to apples comparison...and we have been through this exercise quantitatively in the past with these results. Its nothing personal...its about where you live and climatology.

You should compare the high ground NW of Baltimore to Orange County NY, not to a southwestern suburb of NYC.

If it makes you feel any better, the old rule of thumb was that avg snowfall increases about 50% from DC to NYC and then another 50% from NYC to BOS. All three towns see more to their north and west.

How is Morris County NJ southwest of NYC? and the elevation in Morris County is around1000 feet in many locations. That is a fair comparison to Montgomery County MD where elevations range from 400 to 800 feet and is just NW of DC

This is silly, you are right about one thing we have done this before. And everytime I have allowed myself to delve into this discussion/debate I try to show facts and statistical evidence that is fair. I choose locations that are equal proximity from central locations and of comparable elevation differences. I show data to support this. Then I get complains that it is somehow skewed because the results do not back up the point someone is trying to make. This argument has lost interst to me because I am tired of arguing facts and evidence with people who want to throw back conjecture and subjective notions. Continue to be ignorant if you choose, I am done with this.

[A-L-E-X]

I had almost 100 inches last year, so your snow wishes for me, however well-intentioned, are at this time unnecessary ;-)

Your 50% number simply isn't supported by the facts, no matter how you slice and dice it.

Furthermore, despite your attempts - whether unintended or not - to move the goalposts, the point under discussion here is how often NYC benefits from "extra" snow because of colder temps than DC. The statement that that happens relatively rarely and that a much bigger reason for the difference between DC and NYC's average annual snowfall totals has less to do with temps and much more to do with patterns - i.e. NYC gets hit by Miller Bs and other late-developing and "hooking" EC storms much more often, as was pointed out.

I cant decide which one of you is right, but one winter in which this did happen was 1993-94, when NYC benefited from being closer to the source of Arctic air. That was a positive NAO where NYC got like 53 inches and JFK got 46 inches or so. There was a huge drop off just south of here.

[A-L-E-X]

Yes you can...mountains and the southern hemisphere

haha true, but the funny thing is, I look at the southern hemisphere as having more latitude the further south you go (in absolute values.) Point well taken about mountains though.

[NorthShoreWx]

I had almost 100 inches last year, so your snow wishes for me, however well-intentioned, are at this time unnecessary ;-)

And I was appropriately envious.

[NorthShoreWx]

Well, while the ensembles run, I'll add one last comment to the climo discussion. An apples to apples comparison is not possible due to differences in topography. Closest is to pick a point of origin (like NYC and DCA) and compare locations at a similar distance, direction, elevation, but even there it's subjective since despite some similar parameters the surrounding topography is still all different. If the US northeast coast had one of the following configurations, this would be a much easier comparison.

[psuhoffman]

His location averages about double what you do, and he's east of NYC. There's no question the immediate NYC/LI is significantly snowier than the immediate DC area (by at least 40% I'd say).

Where on Long Island averages 45" of snow?????

[psuhoffman]

You really cant get around the fact that more latitude usually equals more snow and cold.

Being a debate coach I just can not let this go... lol

stop using words like "more" that is subjective and not measurable. No one claimed NYC does not get "more" snow, someone threw 500 percent out there and then 50 percent, those measurable numbers are what was being debated.

[psuhoffman]

I cant decide which one of you is right, but one winter in which this did happen was 1993-94, when NYC benefited from being closer to the source of Arctic air. That was a positive NAO where NYC got like 53 inches and JFK got 46 inches or so. There was a huge drop off just south of here.

yea and I could throw out 1987 where this area got 40" of snow and NYC got significantly less because 2 storms were suppressed south (like Feb 6th last year) and then the 3rd major snowstorm that year hugged the coast so DC and Baltimore were all snow but NYC went to rain.

[NorthShoreWx]

Where on Long Island averages 45" of snow?????

No part of LI averages nearly that much.

[A-L-E-X]

Being a debate coach I just can not let this go... lol

stop using words like "more" that is subjective and not measurable. No one claimed NYC does not get "more" snow, someone threw 500 percent out there and then 50 percent, those measurable numbers are what was being debated.

Yeah, I wasnt saying his 500 percent claim was right, when I made that post, it was a tongue in cheek reference to more latitude usually being better for more snow.... I wasnt really trying to quantify it. From the numbers I've looked at, it looks more like 25-50% depending on how youre comparing them. Using that 25 mile radius method I mentioned earlier might help determine this.

[A-L-E-X]

yea and I could throw out 1987 where this area got 40" of snow and NYC got significantly less because 2 storms were suppressed south (like Feb 6th last year) and then the 3rd major snowstorm that year hugged the coast so DC and Baltimore were all snow but NYC went to rain.

Yes, I know and you could also use last winter. There's a number of winters which go either way and the long term average tends to smooth things out. I do remember someone throwing out some stats awhile ago where in the 30 yr period prior to the 90s, IAD was almost even with NYC in snow, but since then, the average has skewed significantly towards more latitude winters

[A-L-E-X]

No part of LI averages nearly that much.

22-32 inches pretty much covers all of us lol

[psuhoffman]

New York Area

JFK: 22.7

Laguardia: 26.0

Newark: 27.6

Regional AVG 25.4

DC Area

DCA: 16.6

IAD: 22.3

BWI: 20.8

Regional Avg: 19.9

Mathmatical Difference 22%

Caveats: We all know airports are notoriously low in reporting snowfall so before anyone yells about me not including central park that was the reason not some bias. If you want to include central park fine but then find some coop station in DC and include that to even out the statistics. There are several that range between 20-23". Trust me it wont change the math much, possibly from 22 to 23%.

As far as airports go 3 in each metro area, each metro area having 1 in a NW location from the main city.

This was as "fair" and statistically accurate a comparison as could be possible. Anything else is just conjecture. If someone wants to make a case otherwise fine but do so with facts and statistical evidence to back it up please. No more "my gut feels like, I remember a time when, or I just know" kind of arguments.

Source: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/snowfall.html