usedtobe Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/colder_than_average_first_half.html#more Originally, This was included in the article but I decided to cut it out. In the CPC outlook, the below normal temperatures are coupled with below normal precipitation making a guess about snowfall tough as we’re right on the line between normal and below normal precipitation. For snow lovers needing a reason for hope, 60% of the analogs provided by the CPC superensemble centered mean e forecasts centered on Day 11 yesterday gave DCA snow in the 5 day period of the mean and the updated product today (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup814.gif) still had 40% of the analogs having snow in the 5 day period. The analog percentages from both days are higher than 21% (26 one inch or greater events that have occurred in the past 123 years) based strictly on climatology. However, only one of the analogs yielded a 4 inch or greater snowfall. Of course there is also the potential that the model mean forecast could be much different than the one forecast. Still, a negative NAO and AO also usually increase the odds of getting a snowstorm over climatology so there is reason to hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 http://voices.washin..._half.html#more Originally, This was included in the article but I decided to cut it out. In the CPC outlook, the below normal temperatures are coupled with below normal precipitation making a guess about snowfall tough as we’re right on the line between normal and below normal precipitation. For snow lovers needing a reason for hope, 60% of the analogs provided by the CPC superensemble centered mean e forecasts centered on Day 11 yesterday gave DCA snow in the 5 day period of the mean and the updated product today (http://www.cpc.ncep....comp_sup814.gif) still had 40% of the analogs having snow in the 5 day period. The analog percentages from both days are higher than 21% (26 one inch or greater events that have occurred in the past 123 years) based strictly on climatology. However, only one of the analogs yielded a 4 inch or greater snowfall. Of course there is also the potential that the model mean forecast could be much different than the one forecast. Still, a negative NAO and AO also usually increase the odds of getting a snowstorm over climatology so there is reason to hope. thanks for keeping the hope Wes unfortunately, we are looking more and more likely to have experienced more hope than snow this year unless things start changing in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hi Wes: I attached an image from the NWS climate website because the 500 mb analog pattern seems to share some elements with your classic illustration presaging DC snows. Obviously the details are not perfect but does this hint at a favorable pattern coming up? Would this be a potential snow before the arctic outbreak that Don S. is talking about? To me, the pattern seems too progressive and also lacking confluence in New England but I defer to the master. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hi Wes: I attached an image from the NWS climate website because the 500 mb analog pattern seems to share some elements with your classic illustration presaging DC snows. Obviously the details are not perfect but does this hint at a favorable pattern coming up? Would this be a potential snow before the arctic outbreak that Don S. is talking about? To me, the pattern seems too progressive and also lacking confluence in New England but I defer to the master. For DC, most of the snowstorms were not big ones so they probably were progressive. Only one was produced more than 4 inches at DC but Ender (Shane) had looked at them for other places farther north and had noted that 3 or 4 were better (bigger hits) to the north of DC. I didn't look at any locations but DC. I think the best chances would be before the arctic air got deeply entrenched but once it's around. We can always hope for a second shot from some impulse. At such long time ranges, the models aren't going to have the pattern right so there is always hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Today's D+8 analogs had 50% of the give us snow in the 6 day window ending on Jan 14. That's about twice the climo probability Of course that means 50 percent of the time when we had a similar pattern, we got less than one inch of snow (misses) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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