baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Baro is mr optimistic tonight Haha, honestly I don't care too much, I just try and forecast and stick with the thought. From a forecasting standpoint I am always unbiased. From a wish-casting standpoint, I am always pessimistic. Last storm I was pessimistic and was still let down--I need to remain pessimistic! Pessimism means letdowns aren't a big deal and big hits are a pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Clear difference at 500mb by 120hrs. Vortex does not hold on in the Lakes. Oh dont worry it pops back up. ugh talk about one whacked looking 500mb map. sheesh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 To me it just seems hard to believe a storm system would track so far south with so little snow cover to the north at this time of year. Obviously it's quite possible, but seems sort of strange to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Oh dont worry it pops back up. ugh talk about one whacked looking 500mb map. sheesh.. Yea, I saw that... Not as strong/well defined as the 12z, but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yea, I saw that... Not as strong/well defined as the 12z, but it's there. Yep..Only thing i can think of too that would cause the storm to track as far se as it does considering the 500mb below.. Maybe it is me but that does not scream track off the GA coast or whatever as far se? It gets better too per the 500mb maps..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think a few may totally ( i mean totally ) lose it when they see the end of the euro run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherTree Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think a few may totally ( i mean totally ) lose it when they see the end of the euro run! What do you mean? Hour 240 looks pretty run of the mill if that is what you mean by end of the run. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/f240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What do you mean? Hour 240 looks pretty run of the mill if that is what you mean by end of the run. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/f240.gif It is the "idea" of a system tracking to Duluth ( some will lose it ) that i am talking about considering everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherTree Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It is the "idea" of a system tracking to Duluth ( some will lose it ) that i am talking about considering everything else. Point noted, considering all the cold and suppression. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 OT: How does Kalamazoo do for snow? I might be going to WMich for Football. I saw online around 70". Good lake effect? Big storms? Historical storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 6Z GFS is having issues with the Great Lakes vortex and tries to save the day with no suppression. Looks a lot like the 18Z. For now not giving it much credit, but those wanting snow have a new friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 6Z GFS is having issues with the Great Lakes vortex and tries to save the day with no suppression. Looks a lot like the 18Z. For now not giving it much credit, but those wanting snow have a new friend. When you compare the 6z gfs to the 00zeuro same time frame, they have a very similar 'idea'. Obviously the gfs is much stronger with the vort moving thru the miss valley. I guess the question is what has been the 'trend' with these vorts this season....stronger or weaker? I also think, looking at the euro 500, that it doesn't look like a weak slp should be sliding off the se coast with that setup....i would think a weak low placed somewhere in the W. TN valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 When you compare the 6z gfs to the 00zeuro same time frame, they have a very similar 'idea'. Obviously the gfs is much stronger with the vort moving thru the miss valley. I guess the question is what has been the 'trend' with these vorts this season....stronger or weaker? I also think, looking at the euro 500, that it doesn't look like a weak slp should be sliding off the se coast with that setup....i would think a weak low placed somewhere in the W. TN valley Not really. Check the earlier plots I posted with ECM 500 hpa vorticity. It shows the lingering "elongated" vortex over the Great Lakes much better than the plot you have posted. This small difference makes a huge difference regarding the developing storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Not really. Check the earlier plots I posted with ECM 500 hpa vorticity. It shows the lingering "elongated" vortex over the Great Lakes much better than the plot you have posted. This small difference makes a huge difference regarding the developing storm threat. oops had wrong time frame....here's the corrected, anyways the euro is actually ridging a bit more ahead of the vort than the gfs. To me the diff over the great lakes doesn't scream suppression to the degree the euro shows. I think Harry made this ob as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 6Z GFS is having issues with the Great Lakes vortex and tries to save the day with no suppression. Looks a lot like the 18Z. For now not giving it much credit, but those wanting snow have a new friend. Yeah, I'd just throw it out attm. Stick with the seasonal trends. If later, more models support the solution, then make the adjustments, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 oops had wrong time frame....here's the corrected, anyways the euro is actually ridging a bit more ahead of the vort than the gfs. To me the diff over the great lakes doesn't scream suppression to the degree the euro shows. I think Harry made this ob as well The Great Lakes trough supresses everything early and results in huge changes later in the forecast. Watching trends with that Great Lakes vortex is the key to our forecast. Also, here is a good site with decent ECM 500 hpa vorticity graphics--he chose some good colors/contours for his plots. Apparently this guy also posts in our forums (see the 1978 blizzard thread) :http://greatlakes.sa...mouth_page.html I posted a very brief and very simplistic blurb about the storm threat in the Philly/NYC thread. http://www.americanw...post__p__223848 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The Great Lakes trough supresses everything early and results in huge changes later in the forecast. Watching trends with that Great Lakes vortex is the key to our forecast. Also, here is a good site with decent ECM 500 hpa vorticity graphics--he chose some good colors/contours for his plots. Apparently this guy also posts in our forums (see the 1978 blizzard thread) :http://greatlakes.sa...mouth_page.html I posted a very brief and very simplistic blurb about the storm threat in the Philly/NYC thread. http://www.americanw...post__p__223848 i get what you're saying....it just seems that even the euro depiction of what is going on over the great lakes isn't really that 'bully'. A stronger midsection vort would probably easily overcome suppression, I would think. Was wondering as well if the fact that our 'clipper(s)' this week/weekend (modelling less impressive) as they head east is also something to watch regarding the strength of the GL vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah, I'd just throw it out attm. Stick with the seasonal trends. If later, more models support the solution, then make the adjustments, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Yeah I am not holding my breath either. The GFS keeps doing the flip-flop regarding the Canadian vortex and the blocking pattern before the -NAO finally craps out. ECM has been consistent, and its ensemble mean is close to the OP. Because of that, and due to the GFS flopping around, I am sticking with the suppression solution for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i get what you're saying....it just seems that even the euro depiction of what is going on over the great lakes isn't really that 'bully'. A stronger midsection vort would probably easily overcome suppression, I would think. Was wondering as well if the fact that our 'clipper(s)' this week/weekend (modelling less impressive) as they head east is also something to watch regarding the strength of the GL vortex. I hear what you are saying. Earlier I was dynamically breaking this storm down to determine whether a stronger jet max/mid level leading S/W would "break-through" the Great Lakes vortex. The 0Z GFS shows the negative influence of the GL vortex, and you can see this through 120-132. Note the secondary jet developing on the backside of the trough through CO and the Plains. GFS/ECM has been consistent with this secondary jet, and it was one of the many reasons why it was easy to call the 12Z CMC bluff since the 12Z had one beefy jet ejecting into the plains. Consider this. As that secondary jet ejects into the plains on the 0Z GFS, what is the suppressing GL vortex doing? It is shunting the developing wave farther S and farther away from the main baroclinic zone (farther away from the reinforcing snowpack). Note how the 0Z GFS does not intensify the wave as the forecasts progresses. Why? Low level baroclinic zone is weak. This results in a hugely different forecast between the 0Z GFS/06Z GFS/0Z ECM. It is a feedback process, and early errors amplify with time. We need to watch trends with the GL vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 OT: How does Kalamazoo do for snow? I might be going to WMich for Football. I saw online around 70". Good lake effect? Big storms? Historical storms? Harry is your guy for this. He is about 20 - 30 miles east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 DTX certainly is interested in lake effect potential in the coming days (esp 94 band), but are really poo-pooing anything next week. I see the 6z GFS gives us a bit of snow again after its suppressed 00z counterpart, and the ensembles are ALL over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 OT: How does Kalamazoo do for snow? I might be going to WMich for Football. I saw online around 70". Good lake effect? Big storms? Historical storms? Youd definitely want to ask Harry, hes an expert on Kalamazoo. Basically, while big storms can happen, probably not quite as frequently as Boston (Meaning 12"+), but from every other aspect you would probably like Kalamazoo if you are a snowlover, esp wrt LES. While they dont have NOWData for rough averages for Kalamazoo, I can give you Detroit and Grand Rapids, Detroit is more even from a latitude perspective, but Grand Rapids is more similar wrt lake effect. NOWData is a good tool, but per my experience is FAR from perfect. One thing the stats dont show, is how often you will see at least some snowflakes in the air. I can never find a place that has half the days with a trace of snow that you will get in MI. Thats in addition, of course, to all the other snow stats below. BOSTON: Avg Snow: 43.7" Avg 1"+ Snowcover Days: 34 days Avg Days w/ 0.1"+ Snowfall: 22 days Avg Days w/ 1.0"+ Snowfall: 11 days Avg Days w/ 3.0"+ Snowfall: 5 days Avg Days w/ 5.0"+ Snowfall: 2 days DETROIT: Avg Snow: 44.0" Avg 1"+ Snowcover Days: 50 days Avg Days w/ 0.1"+ Snowfall: 37 days Avg Days w/ 1.0"+ Snowfall: 13 days Avg Days w/ 3.0"+ Snowfall: 4 days Avg Days w/ 5.0"+ Snowfall: 2 days GRAND RAPIDS: Avg Snow: 70.2" Avg 1"+ Snowcover Days: 72 days Avg Days w/ 0.1"+ Snowfall: 55 days Avg Days w/ 1.0"+ Snowfall: 23 days Avg Days w/ 3.0"+ Snowfall: 6 days Avg Days w/ 5.0"+ Snowfall: 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think a few may totally ( i mean totally ) lose it when they see the end of the euro run! Good thing the Euro is as about as useful as the GFS at 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We must be hungry for a storm, 7 pages already for such a long shot weak threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We must be hungry for a storm, 7 pages already for such a long shot weak threat. It is a long shot for us and the MI crew, but not so much for those to the south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We must be hungry for a storm, 7 pages already for such a long shot weak threat. Hail Mary at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We must be hungry for a storm, 7 pages already for such a long shot weak threat. All hopes rest with the 0z NOCRAPS. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 All hopes rest with the 0z NOCRAPS. http://www.meteo.psu...nogapsloop.html Several of the gfs ensembles still look good. Way too early to even lean one way or another imo. Everything, good and bad, is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 To me it just seems hard to believe a storm system would track so far south with so little snow cover to the north at this time of year. Obviously it's quite possible, but seems sort of strange to me. It has nothing to do with how much snow cover we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 All hopes rest with the 0z NOCRAPS. http://www.meteo.psu...nogapsloop.html I guess it's something when that model isn't suppressed to the maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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