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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects


Madmaxweather

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It will probably be a 100 year old widow with no kids who wins.

Lol, there was a local lotto show here years ago, kind of like a game show, and I swear every time a older person from Grosse Pointe (an affluent area of Metro Detroit) would always win.

/OT

The GGEM doesn't look terrible if the thing near Maine doesn't park there or if the Southern stream slows down a little.

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Lol, there was a local lotto show here years ago, kind of like a game show, and I swear every time a older person from Grosse Pointe (an affluent area of Metro Detroit) would always win.

/OT

The GGEM doesn't look terrible if the thing near Maine doesn't park there or if the Southern stream slows down a little.

It doesn't have that vortex over the Lakes, but just looking at how disjointed that s/w over the Gulf looks in comparison to the main flow of westerlies, I think it'll be suppressed by a fair margin.

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Lol, there was a local lotto show here years ago, kind of like a game show, and I swear every time a older person from Grosse Pointe (an affluent area of Metro Detroit) would always win.

/OT

The GGEM doesn't look terrible if the thing near Maine doesn't park there or if the Southern stream slows down a little.

It's notably weaker and less phased, that's for sure.

This run has pretty much joined the EURO too.

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Good points.

Yes great results for here but i do feel for the others ( bowme/ssc/se MI-OH crew etc ) away from the Lake influence who has also been shafted all winter up to this point. Hopefully they catch a break soon. Still would not totally write this off yet.

Verbatum its actually potentially decent LES for DTW, wouldnt you say?

But anyway theres no reason to write anything off, much less "totally write off". Its ridiculous really, 18z is a go, 00z is a big synoptic no-go. Change of tune in 6 hours for a storm a WEEK away. I said it yesterday, do you know how many times things will change? Probably will see Euro and GFS switch as they so often do (ie euro will not have a cutter).

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Verbatum its actually potentially decent LES for DTW, wouldnt you say?

But anyway theres no reason to write anything off, much less "totally write off". Its ridiculous really, 18z is a go, 00z is a big synoptic no-go. Change of tune in 6 hours for a storm a WEEK away. I said it yesterday, do you know how many times things will change? Probably will see Euro and GFS switch as they so often do (ie euro will not have a cutter).

With the NAM especially so yes ( Especially city on south-Your backyard ) and then somewhat the GFS. Granted the GFS is not the greatest for LES. As baro noted the models continue to be slower to move the stuff out up this way and thus it could really become one a heck of a event if that trend continues. I have not seen this before so it may be better to ask someone who has and or followed them. My guess is Dec 2001 might be the closest thing to what this could be? Gonna have to hunt down some images ( 500mb/surface etc ) from back then to see. All is still subject to change ofcourse. So i would not get excited yet. If the models are all showing this come tomorrows 00z run then yeah time to get excited as far as the LES goes.

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With the NAM especially so yes ( Especially city on south-Your backyard ) and then somewhat the GFS. Granted the GFS is not the greatest for LES. As baro noted the models continue to be slower to move the stuff out up this way and thus it could really become one a heck of a event if that trend continues. I have not seen this before so it may be better to ask someone who has and or followed them. My guess is Dec 2001 might be the closest thing to what this could be? Gonna have to hunt down some images ( 500mb/surface etc ) from back then to see. All is still subject to change ofcourse. So i would not get excited yet. If the models are all showing this come tomorrows 00z run then yeah time to get excited as far as the LES goes.

Its all so confusing LOL. So if we get good LES its bad news for the storm, and if we want the storm we have to hope the LES fails?

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I hate relying on LES, it can be very fickle here...if worse comes to worse, I'd hope for a I696/I6 to I94 deal

With the NAM especially so yes ( Especially city on south-Your backyard ) and then somewhat the GFS. Granted the GFS is not the greatest for LES. As baro noted the models continue to be slower to move the stuff out up this way and thus it could really become one a heck of a event if that trend continues. I have not seen this before so it may be better to ask someone who has and or followed them. My guess is Dec 2001 might be the closest thing to what this could be? Gonna have to hunt down some images ( 500mb/surface etc ) from back then to see. All is still subject to change ofcourse. So i would not get excited yet. If the models are all showing this come tomorrows 00z run then yeah time to get excited as far as the LES goes.

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Its all so confusing LOL. So if we get good LES its bad news for the storm, and if we want the storm we have to hope the LES fails?

Actually the other way around. Well somewhat. What we don't want is the stuff over us dropping ese/se. Thats a total screw job. Equalls block for storm and shifts the LES into a more northerly event/nnw. Hanging out further north and then moving off ups the odd's of it getting out of the way quicker for the system but also better les result. STAYING PUT is great for LES but not as great for storm. Make sense? lol

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Actually the other way around. Well somewhat. What we don't want is the stuff over us dropping ese/se. Thats a total screw job. Equalls block for storm and shifts the LES into a more northerly event/nnw. Hanging out further north and then moving off ups the odd's of it getting out of the way quicker for the system but also better les result. STAYING PUT is great for LES but not as great for storm. Make sense? lol

Somewhat makes sense to me LOL. Like Ive said over and over, Im a big climo expert, but in the end of the day, outside qpf, Im really a sort of a novice when it comes to model interpretation.

FWIW, the GEM likes the 94 lake effect too (this is after a shortwave looks to drop light snow on all of MI tomorrow night), and it has a long duration light snow event at the beginning of next week, so not supression. On the order of 0.25-0.50" qpf with the storm next week.

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This morning some were fearing the Euro would show a cutter. Instead the opposite is happening. Just shows how much of a wide variation of solutions are still probable. I think we'll end up seeing more of a blend of the Euro and GEM personally. I just can't see this thing creeping along the gulf, but also don't see it being all that far north as well. It's going to be an interesting next couple of days.

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