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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects


Madmaxweather

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It's going to be no good. It's a watered down version of the 12z EURO.

We just can't win this season.

Oh well, the GFS will probably congratulate MSP on the 12z run tomorrow (as they continue to struggle with the pattern and flip flop), though if I were a bettng man I would ride the supressed solution as final.

a neutral NAO (And it actually averages negative in the 7 and 14 day outlook) does nothing for us with the strongly -AO.

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Oh whats new, once again the euro has started the trend of it missing eastern Nebraska once again. We just cant ge ta break this winter with storm missing us in all directions

At this rate no one will be getting much of anything... unless you head up to Cro's house up on Mt. Saukville where he'll be making 3"/hr.

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The CMC never had a chance for verification for a number of reasons. Interesting to see what it tries to pull this run. The CMC is easily the worst global model of the big 4.

I'm not sure I'd agree. The UKIE is hardly mentioned among MRFs for a reason, it's H5 scores notwithstanding. And frankly, just from anecdotal evidence, I'd say within D5 the CMC is on par with the GFS.

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I'm not sure I'd agree. The UKIE is hardly mentioned among MRFs for a reason, it's H5 scores notwithstanding. And frankly, just from ancedotal evidence, I'd say within D5 the CMC is on par with the GFS.

After using it operationally for a few years, we gave up even trying. The CMC may not have a horrible height field verification score, but it is way to unreliable and jumps around way too much run by run. Its ensemble is junk as well. The 12Z run was a typical example of the crap you get from the CMC.

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Yes that is true. The NAM has a very Euro look though with the northern extension of the vortex retrograding under the block and the southern extension of the vortex progressing--thus elongating and stretching it but keeping the vortex camped out over the lakes. GFS does show some slow progression, but this could very well be due to the influence of the previous runs initialization. I was amazed at how the ECM's 50 member ensemble mean looked nearly identical to the OP run in the height field 168-192 hours out. Hard to beat the ECM ensemble when it has that much certainty. Things will have to change fast for something better. Lake zones will score though, so not all folks are screwed.

Good points.

Yes great results for here but i do feel for the others ( bowme/ssc/se MI-OH crew etc ) away from the Lake influence who has also been shafted all winter up to this point. Hopefully they catch a break soon. Still would not totally write this off yet.

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After using it operationally for a few years, we gave up even trying. The CMC may not have a horrible height field verification score, but it is way to unreliable and jumps around way too much run by run. Its ensemble is junk as well. The 12Z run was a typical example of the crap you get from the CMC.

I would say the CMC handles a more typical Nina ( think 07-08/08-09..usually first to catch the ole nw trend had back then ) pattern much better. Unsure of why it struggles with Nino and this winter? The blocking perhaps?

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Good points.

Yes great results for here but i do feel for the others ( bowme/ssc/se MI-OH crew etc ) away from the Lake influence who has also been shafted all winter up to this point. Hopefully they catch a break soon. Still would not totally write this off yet.

Good news is the GFS is showing a D11 threat. :arrowhead:

I am excited for the Arctic plunge and potential damage come mid January if we can get some good baroclinic waves riding the polar front as opposed to a gravity induced south creeping arctic front.

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I am excited for the Arctic plunge and potential damage come mid January if we can get some good baroclinic waves riding the polar front as opposed to a gravity induced south creeping arctic front.

WOW.. We were thinking the exact same thing.. See my last post!!! :thumbsup:

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Quick OT post

For those who care, Mega Millions Jackpot was $355 milion dollars (2nd highest in history).

The next drawing is Friday and if no one won tonight it will be the next jackpot will be the largest one in history.

Heh, one can dream and take a 1 in gazillion chance, right? :arrowhead:

The Mega Millions & Michigan Lottery website crashed BTW, lol.

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Quick OT post

For those who care, Mega Millions Jackpot is $355 milion dollars (last jackpot of $330 million dollars was the 2nd highest in history, I'm not sure if this one still is in 2nd place).

No one won it tonight and the next draw is Saturday.

Heh, one can dream and take a 1 in gazillion chance, right? :arrowhead:

sounds like instead of my normal 10 bucks I am going to have to bet 20 for Friday.

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