Madmaxweather Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 uh oh.. that southern wave goes bye bye..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 00z GFS looks like one hot mess so far. It'll be interesting to see what the next frames show. It's going to be no good. It's a watered down version of the 12z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's going to be no good. It's a watered down version of the 12z EURO. You got that right! Its still several days out.. But this scenario as opposed to Iowa idea that the CMC had is much more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 uh oh.. that southern wave goes bye bye..... Alek was right. You just ride the solution that shows the least amount of snow. NAO rising to neutral and the main vortex kicks out yet something still goes wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You got that right! Its still several days out.. But this scenario as opposed to Iowa idea that the CMC had is much more likely. The CMC never had a chance for verification for a number of reasons. Interesting to see what it tries to pull this run. The CMC is easily the worst global model of the big 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Oh whats new, once again the euro has started the trend of it missing eastern Nebraska once again. We just cant ge ta break this winter with storm missing us in all directions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 The CMC never had a chance for verification for a number of reasons. Interesting to see what it tries to pull this run. The CMC is easily the worst global model of the big 4. Yeap.... I agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's going to be no good. It's a watered down version of the 12z EURO. We just can't win this season. Oh well, the GFS will probably congratulate MSP on the 12z run tomorrow (as they continue to struggle with the pattern and flip flop), though if I were a bettng man I would ride the supressed solution as final. a neutral NAO (And it actually averages negative in the 7 and 14 day outlook) does nothing for us with the strongly -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Oh whats new, once again the euro has started the trend of it missing eastern Nebraska once again. We just cant ge ta break this winter with storm missing us in all directions At this rate no one will be getting much of anything... unless you head up to Cro's house up on Mt. Saukville where he'll be making 3"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The CMC never had a chance for verification for a number of reasons. Interesting to see what it tries to pull this run. The CMC is easily the worst global model of the big 4. I'm not sure I'd agree. The UKIE is hardly mentioned among MRFs for a reason, it's H5 scores notwithstanding. And frankly, just from anecdotal evidence, I'd say within D5 the CMC is on par with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincywxpro Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This GFS run is like a slap in the face. First it eats the Friday snow potential like a piece of pie and not it eats the Tuesday system like a Thanksgiving feast. Oh well, there is more than enough time to keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The CMC never had a chance for verification for a number of reasons. Interesting to see what it tries to pull this run. The CMC is easily the worst global model of the big 4. DGEX FOR LIFE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm not sure I'd agree. The UKIE is hardly mentioned among MRFs for a reason, it's H5 scores notwithstanding. And frankly, just from ancedotal evidence, I'd say within D5 the CMC is on par with the GFS. After using it operationally for a few years, we gave up even trying. The CMC may not have a horrible height field verification score, but it is way to unreliable and jumps around way too much run by run. Its ensemble is junk as well. The 12Z run was a typical example of the crap you get from the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 DGEX FOR LIFE! Only the DGEX makes the NOGAPS look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes that is true. The NAM has a very Euro look though with the northern extension of the vortex retrograding under the block and the southern extension of the vortex progressing--thus elongating and stretching it but keeping the vortex camped out over the lakes. GFS does show some slow progression, but this could very well be due to the influence of the previous runs initialization. I was amazed at how the ECM's 50 member ensemble mean looked nearly identical to the OP run in the height field 168-192 hours out. Hard to beat the ECM ensemble when it has that much certainty. Things will have to change fast for something better. Lake zones will score though, so not all folks are screwed. Good points. Yes great results for here but i do feel for the others ( bowme/ssc/se MI-OH crew etc ) away from the Lake influence who has also been shafted all winter up to this point. Hopefully they catch a break soon. Still would not totally write this off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 With this deep cold pattern you guys think the some of GL's will freeze over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 After using it operationally for a few years, we gave up even trying. The CMC may not have a horrible height field verification score, but it is way to unreliable and jumps around way too much run by run. Its ensemble is junk as well. The 12Z run was a typical example of the crap you get from the CMC. I would say the CMC handles a more typical Nina ( think 07-08/08-09..usually first to catch the ole nw trend had back then ) pattern much better. Unsure of why it struggles with Nino and this winter? The blocking perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Good points. Yes great results for here but i do feel for the others ( bowme/ssc/se MI-OH crew etc ) away from the Lake influence who has also been shafted all winter up to this point. Hopefully they catch a break soon. Still would not totally write this off yet. Good news is the GFS is showing a D11 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 With this deep cold pattern you guys think the some of GL's will freeze over? I guarantee you Lk Erie will freeze over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Good points. Yes great results for here but i do feel for the others ( bowme/ssc/se MI-OH crew etc ) away from the Lake influence who has also been shafted all winter up to this point. Hopefully they catch a break soon. Still would not totally write this off yet. Good news is the GFS is showing a D11 threat. I am excited for the Arctic plunge and potential damage come mid January if we can get some good baroclinic waves riding the polar front as opposed to a gravity induced south creeping arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 One interesting trend i am noticing with all of this is the delaying of the brutal cold which could provide a second chance so to speak further out when it does arrive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I am excited for the Arctic plunge and potential damage come mid January if we can get some good baroclinic waves riding the polar front as opposed to a gravity induced south creeping arctic front. WOW.. We were thinking the exact same thing.. See my last post!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wait the GFS has suppressed something? Next you guys are going to tell me the Euro is holding back S/w energy in the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Do we need a big storm like a Miller B to bring down the Arctic refuge? The GFS holds it back because the storm for early next week gets crushed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Quick OT post For those who care, Mega Millions Jackpot was $355 milion dollars (2nd highest in history). The next drawing is Friday and if no one won tonight it will be the next jackpot will be the largest one in history. Heh, one can dream and take a 1 in gazillion chance, right? The Mega Millions & Michigan Lottery website crashed BTW, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 They said the next draw will be nearly 420-430 million. I hope more then one person wins, that is WAY to much money for one person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 so.. the GGEM is out to 120. According to that Omaha is in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Quick OT post For those who care, Mega Millions Jackpot is $355 milion dollars (last jackpot of $330 million dollars was the 2nd highest in history, I'm not sure if this one still is in 2nd place). No one won it tonight and the next draw is Saturday. Heh, one can dream and take a 1 in gazillion chance, right? sounds like instead of my normal 10 bucks I am going to have to bet 20 for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 WOW.. We were thinking the exact same thing.. See my last post!!! I am hoping so. I am excited for the arctic scourge itself since I love brutal cold--if we can get some action along the front that would be better. Enough of the ensembles support a threat to be excited for the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like the GGEM is taking a step in the Euro/00Z GFS direction...more supression by hr 120 compared to its 12Z run...not completely like the Euro/GFS but not as amplified as before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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