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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects


Madmaxweather

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Wow the 0Z NAM at 84 hours looks identical to the 96 hr 12 Z ECM (same forecast verification time) in terms of the vortex sitting over the lakes.

Well we have the highly regarded Euro and the NAM which is often not very good at that timeframe. Something's gotta give.

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Well we have the highly regarded Euro and the NAM which is often not very good at that timeframe. Something's gotta give.

Interesting to see what the rest of the 0Z guidance shows. I was thinking this storm had the potential to be suppressed, but not to the extent of the 12Z ECM. I wonder if the latest guidance (and the 12Z ECM) caught on to that system currently retrograding off the northeastern Canadian coast into interior Canada influencing then stalling the main vortex more than previous guidance suggested.

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Wow the 0Z NAM at 84 hours looks identical to the 96 hr 12 Z ECM (same forecast verification time) in terms of the vortex sitting over the lakes.

It *looks* though as if it starting to move off a bit quicker though ( vs EURO ) on the last frame? Or is it just me?

Now i have to hush because i am probably only one of a very very few people on this board who is beyond excited by this run. :weenie::weenie::weenie:

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I saw this page a long time ago that had the rules. EE is what?

Euro and ETA had such different physics packages that if they both arrived at the same conclusion it would probably happen. (and EN I just made up when I posted that)

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It *looks* though as if it starting to move off a bit quicker though ( vs EURO ) on the last frame? Or is it just me?

Now i have to hush because i am probably only one of a very very few people on this board who is beyond excited by this run. :weenie::weenie::weenie:

Hard to tell. The NAM seems to suggest a huge influence of the block. It has that small coastal just northeast of Maine (at the end of the 84 hr NAM) on a beeline to interior Canada which would keep the main vortex relatively stationary going out in time.

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It *looks* though as if it starting to move off a bit quicker though ( vs EURO ) on the last frame? Or is it just me?

Now i have to hush because i am probably only one of a very very few people on this board who is beyond excited by this run. :weenie::weenie::weenie:

I'd be excited if I weren't me. Or rather if I were me, but I weren't here. You might in a good spot indeed.

Good luck!

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It *looks* though as if it starting to move off a bit quicker though ( vs EURO ) on the last frame? Or is it just me?

Now i have to hush because i am probably only one of a very very few people on this board who is beyond excited by this run. :weenie::weenie::weenie:

I'm gonna get buried. Look at that fetch all the way to Superior!

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no...im remaining cautiously optimistic. When I cant figure out whether a threat is going to be too far north and create precip issues...or....get crushed south of us, that tends to be a decent signal for something.:popcorn:

Hope that WV stands for westerville considering your name lol.

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well you guys are severely overdue....

if that vort screws the synoptic chances for our region, than i hope at least you guys finally get a piece of the LE pie. But of course my first hope is a gfs-esque solution.

Thanks and i understand.

Wanna see the rest of the models before i really build my excitement up.

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Well this storm threat is going down the crapper fast for the folks on the northern end. GFS is trending way more suppressed with a slow moving broad vortex over the lakes--the 0Z is about as big of a shift as you will see with the GFS in only 84 hours. Good for the folks in the lake effect belts though that do well in NW flow. Euro caught on to this scenario well.

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Well this storm threat is going down the crapper fast for the folks on the northern end. GFS is trending way more suppressed with a slow moving broad vortex over the lakes--the 0Z is about as big of a shift as you will see with the GFS in only 84 hours. Good for the folks in the lake effect belts though that do well in NW flow. Euro caught on to this scenario well.

yeah that south movement is a real possible screw you job with the storm potential. Plenty of time for that to change though. Keep in mind the euro basically holds it in place rather then dropping it ese/se as the GFS is doing on this run. Maybe it gets out of the way quicker vs what the euro did? Guess we will see.

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Well this storm threat is going down the crapper fast for the folks on the northern end. GFS is trending way more suppressed with a slow moving broad vortex over the lakes--the 0Z is about as big of a shift as you will see with the GFS in only 84 hours. Good for the folks in the lake effect belts though that do well in NW flow. Euro caught on to this scenario well.

We have the benefit of time though...this is still pretty far out there.

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We have the benefit of time though...this is still pretty far out there.

Yeah but there are things to key in on early. That vortex stalling it out is one of those and will have profound effects on the eventual western trough. The reasoning for the vortex stalling out is also due to model changes within this first 24-48 hour period, so I give the stalled out scenario a very high weight. I see a very small threat now for northern regions (none for MN and northern/central WI), and GFS could very well trend even slower and more stalled since it typically doesn't make huge changes in one run since it gives a decent weight to the previous forecast as its initialization.

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yeah that south movement is a real possible screw you job with the storm potential. Plenty of time for that to change though. Keep in mind the euro basically holds it in place rather then dropping it ese/se as the GFS is doing on this run. Maybe it gets out of the way quicker vs what the euro did? Guess we will see.

Yes that is true. The NAM has a very Euro look though with the northern extension of the vortex retrograding under the block and the southern extension of the vortex progressing--thus elongating and stretching it but keeping the vortex camped out over the lakes. GFS does show some slow progression, but this could very well be due to the influence of the previous runs initialization. I was amazed at how the ECM's 50 member ensemble mean looked nearly identical to the OP run in the height field 168-192 hours out. Hard to beat the ECM ensemble when it has that much certainty. Things will have to change fast for something better. Lake zones will score though, so not all folks are screwed.

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