The_Global_Warmer Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 0Z NAM is trying to pull a Euro with a huge vortex sitting over the lakes through 84. A weird shift, even by the crappy NAM standards. Yeah, no way the SW vort does anything looking at it at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow the 0Z NAM at 84 hours looks identical to the 96 hr 12 Z ECM (same forecast verification time) in terms of the vortex sitting over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow the 0Z NAM at 84 hours looks identical to the 96 hr 12 Z ECM (same forecast verification time) in terms of the vortex sitting over the lakes. (EE rule) well I guess it would be EN rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow the 0Z NAM at 84 hours looks identical to the 96 hr 12 Z ECM (same forecast verification time) in terms of the vortex sitting over the lakes. Well we have the highly regarded Euro and the NAM which is often not very good at that timeframe. Something's gotta give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 (EE rule) well I guess it would be EN rule. I saw this page a long time ago that had the rules. EE is what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I saw this page a long time ago that had the rules. EE is what? euro-eta match up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The euro can be right I just need it to be stronger with wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well we have the highly regarded Euro and the NAM which is often not very good at that timeframe. Something's gotta give. Interesting to see what the rest of the 0Z guidance shows. I was thinking this storm had the potential to be suppressed, but not to the extent of the 12Z ECM. I wonder if the latest guidance (and the 12Z ECM) caught on to that system currently retrograding off the northeastern Canadian coast into interior Canada influencing then stalling the main vortex more than previous guidance suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 euro-eta match up Thanks. I see what the E-N is then too. E-N matchups don't happen very often since the NAM is such trash, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow the 0Z NAM at 84 hours looks identical to the 96 hr 12 Z ECM (same forecast verification time) in terms of the vortex sitting over the lakes. It *looks* though as if it starting to move off a bit quicker though ( vs EURO ) on the last frame? Or is it just me? Now i have to hush because i am probably only one of a very very few people on this board who is beyond excited by this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I saw this page a long time ago that had the rules. EE is what? Euro and ETA had such different physics packages that if they both arrived at the same conclusion it would probably happen. (and EN I just made up when I posted that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It *looks* though as if it starting to move off a bit quicker though ( vs EURO ) on the last frame? Or is it just me? Now i have to hush because i am probably only one of a very very few people on this board who is beyond excited by this run. Hard to tell. The NAM seems to suggest a huge influence of the block. It has that small coastal just northeast of Maine (at the end of the 84 hr NAM) on a beeline to interior Canada which would keep the main vortex relatively stationary going out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It *looks* though as if it starting to move off a bit quicker though ( vs EURO ) on the last frame? Or is it just me? Now i have to hush because i am probably only one of a very very few people on this board who is beyond excited by this run. i have a feeling that excitement is not synoptically-based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It *looks* though as if it starting to move off a bit quicker though ( vs EURO ) on the last frame? Or is it just me? Now i have to hush because i am probably only one of a very very few people on this board who is beyond excited by this run. I'd be excited if I weren't me. Or rather if I were me, but I weren't here. You might in a good spot indeed. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It *looks* though as if it starting to move off a bit quicker though ( vs EURO ) on the last frame? Or is it just me? Now i have to hush because i am probably only one of a very very few people on this board who is beyond excited by this run. I'm gonna get buried. Look at that fetch all the way to Superior! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 i have a feeling that excitement is not synoptically-based? Are you making a screw zone map for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i have a feeling that excitement is not synoptically-based? Correct.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Are you making a screw zone map for this storm? no...im remaining cautiously optimistic. When I cant figure out whether a threat is going to be too far north and create precip issues...or....get crushed south of us, that tends to be a decent signal for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Correct.. well you guys are severely overdue.... if that vort screws the synoptic chances for our region, than i hope at least you guys finally get a piece of the LE pie. But of course my first hope is a gfs-esque solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 no...im remaining cautiously optimistic. When I cant figure out whether a threat is going to be too far north and create precip issues...or....get crushed south of us, that tends to be a decent signal for something. Hope that WV stands for westerville considering your name lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hope that WV stands for westerville considering your name lol. Im a buckeye by geography.... but a mountaineer at heart, (my alma mater) btw, pretty wild osu/ark game.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Im a buckeye by geography.... but a mountaineer at heart, (my alma mater) btw, pretty wild osu/ark game.... ahh, well in that case you can like both.. And yes it is. OSU needs to destroy them so the Big ten dont look so bad.. Back to weather. GFS is rolling out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 well you guys are severely overdue.... if that vort screws the synoptic chances for our region, than i hope at least you guys finally get a piece of the LE pie. But of course my first hope is a gfs-esque solution. Thanks and i understand. Wanna see the rest of the models before i really build my excitement up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well this storm threat is going down the crapper fast for the folks on the northern end. GFS is trending way more suppressed with a slow moving broad vortex over the lakes--the 0Z is about as big of a shift as you will see with the GFS in only 84 hours. Good for the folks in the lake effect belts though that do well in NW flow. Euro caught on to this scenario well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah this is not good..I gotta hope the 2nd wave can hold something together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well this storm threat is going down the crapper fast for the folks on the northern end. GFS is trending way more suppressed with a slow moving broad vortex over the lakes--the 0Z is about as big of a shift as you will see with the GFS in only 84 hours. Good for the folks in the lake effect belts though that do well in NW flow. Euro caught on to this scenario well. yeah that south movement is a real possible screw you job with the storm potential. Plenty of time for that to change though. Keep in mind the euro basically holds it in place rather then dropping it ese/se as the GFS is doing on this run. Maybe it gets out of the way quicker vs what the euro did? Guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well this storm threat is going down the crapper fast for the folks on the northern end. GFS is trending way more suppressed with a slow moving broad vortex over the lakes--the 0Z is about as big of a shift as you will see with the GFS in only 84 hours. Good for the folks in the lake effect belts though that do well in NW flow. Euro caught on to this scenario well. We have the benefit of time though...this is still pretty far out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We have the benefit of time though...this is still pretty far out there. Yeah but there are things to key in on early. That vortex stalling it out is one of those and will have profound effects on the eventual western trough. The reasoning for the vortex stalling out is also due to model changes within this first 24-48 hour period, so I give the stalled out scenario a very high weight. I see a very small threat now for northern regions (none for MN and northern/central WI), and GFS could very well trend even slower and more stalled since it typically doesn't make huge changes in one run since it gives a decent weight to the previous forecast as its initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 00z GFS looks like one hot mess so far. It'll be interesting to see what the next frames show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yeah that south movement is a real possible screw you job with the storm potential. Plenty of time for that to change though. Keep in mind the euro basically holds it in place rather then dropping it ese/se as the GFS is doing on this run. Maybe it gets out of the way quicker vs what the euro did? Guess we will see. Yes that is true. The NAM has a very Euro look though with the northern extension of the vortex retrograding under the block and the southern extension of the vortex progressing--thus elongating and stretching it but keeping the vortex camped out over the lakes. GFS does show some slow progression, but this could very well be due to the influence of the previous runs initialization. I was amazed at how the ECM's 50 member ensemble mean looked nearly identical to the OP run in the height field 168-192 hours out. Hard to beat the ECM ensemble when it has that much certainty. Things will have to change fast for something better. Lake zones will score though, so not all folks are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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