January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects

The_Global_Warmer · January 4, 2011

LSX

EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
12Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF

THIS WEEKEND WEATHER AS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE BAJA OF CALIFORIA FRIDAY MORNING TO ARKANSAS

BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW

OVERSPREADING THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND

SUNDAY MORNING. NOW DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND

EVENTUAL TRACK WE COULD SEE A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOP...BUT

PINPOINTING THAT THIS FAR OUT IS POINTLESS.

MEANWHILE...A DEEP TROF WILL BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS

WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY

NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST

TO EAST AGAIN...AND IF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS DEEP ENOUGH THERE

COULD BE ANOTHER DEFORMATION ZONE THAT SETS UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE

MIDWEST...BUT AGAIN NO NEED TO DIVE TOO FAR INTO THE DETAILS.

THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE MODELS TO SORT OUT THE

SPECIFICS...BUT IT IS TIME TO RAISE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY

AND START HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL OF MEASURABLE SNOW THIS WEEKEND

AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO AND MULTIMEDIA WEATHER BRIEFING.

CVKING

IWXwx · January 4, 2011

I'll ride the best model and anticipate nothing but boring cold.

The way my winter's been going, I will agree with Alek and

the Euro with it's best verification scores.

baroclinic_instability · January 4, 2011

Euro sort of loses the "best" distinction when you get out to 6 or 7 days.

I still think it has the best verification, but as one would expect all models go to crap then and it is ensemble mean time by then. Unfortunately here the Euro ensemble mean looks a lot like the ECM op run.

The_Global_Warmer · January 4, 2011

I still think it has the best verification, but as one would expect all models go to crap then and it is ensemble mean time by then. Unfortunately here the Euro ensemble mean looks a lot like the ECM op run.

the euro ensembles are cold.

then at the end seem to drop the mother load into Southern Canada.

baroclinic_instability · January 4, 2011

meh, it's only January 4th, things can change in a big way but i hate med/long range forcasting so i won't bother. I just think the seasonal trends looks to remain strong enough for the next 5-7 days to send this one west, south and east. If anything the blocks have been underdone, so corrections south are probably in order on the GFS and Canadian.

My thoughts exactly, and glancing at the GFS ensemble, the op run is one of the more bullish runs with respect to its members. Based off season trends with the blocking pattern and the big wedge of dry air over the Great Lakes, for now something just S of the GFS is a good call for the time being. Also, does anyone remember what happened with the last storm with a similar setup/stretching deformation zone in the wake of a slowly weakening east coast trough? Look at the 700 hpa RH circled.

Harry · January 4, 2011

I still think it has the best verification, but as one would expect all models go to crap then and it is ensemble mean time by then. Unfortunately here the Euro ensemble mean looks a lot like the ECM op run.

Not really. Unless we were looking at two totally different euro ensembles? :unsure:

They have a bit more energy to the west unlike the euro itself which has it all down south and east.

Note to how the western energy tries to close off too. Coastal gets fully going after that.. Thus Miller b'ish

baroclinic_instability · January 4, 2011

Not really. Unless we were looking at two totally different euro ensembles?

They have a bit more energy to the west unlike the euro itself which has it all down south and east.

Note to how the western energy tries to close off too. Coastal gets fully going after that.. Thus Miller b'ish

Suppressed and weak is how it looks with the early/midweek storm threat next week. I don't know how you can see anything positive in that, especially if you compare it to the GFS op which at this point would be a decent scenario.

Harry · January 4, 2011

Suppressed and weak is how it looks with the early/midweek storm threat next week. I don't know how you can see anything positive in that, especially if you compare it to the GFS op which at this point would be a decent scenario.

I'll be honest. I would take the euro itself over the ensembles. lol That is a killer wnw flow LES set up the euro has for here.

The positive it that a number of it's members are tracking s surface low to Ohio/Lake Erie and closing it off which yeah would be much better for here then some crappy eastcoast low that does zero for anyone out this way.

KokomoWX · January 4, 2011

12z GFS Lock It Up

StnID: gvs    Model: gfs3   Run: 20110104/1200    Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Sleet Ratio: 2:1   || CarSnowTool Beta 5.4

Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
======================================================================================================================
110104/1500Z   3  27014KT  28.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110104/1800Z   6  28018KT  30.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110104/2100Z   9  29015KT  26.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110105/0000Z  12  29010KT  22.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110105/0300Z  15  29008KT  20.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110105/0600Z  18  27006KT  18.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110105/0900Z  21  26004KT  17.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110105/1200Z  24  23005KT  17.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110105/1500Z  27  21005KT  20.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110105/1800Z  30  21005KT  28.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110105/2100Z  33  22007KT  30.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110106/0000Z  36  22007KT  25.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110106/0300Z  39  24008KT  26.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110106/0600Z  42  24008KT  25.7F  SNOW    15:1| 0.1|| 0.1    0.008|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110106/0900Z  45  28010KT  24.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.1    0.000|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110106/1200Z  48  29011KT  21.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.1    0.000|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110106/1500Z  51  29012KT  21.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110106/1800Z  54  29013KT  24.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110106/2100Z  57  28013KT  24.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110107/0000Z  60  28012KT  21.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110107/0300Z  63  28011KT  19.8F  SNOW    23:1| 0.4|| 0.4    0.016|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110107/0600Z  66  30013KT  19.0F  SNOW    16:1| 0.4|| 0.7    0.024|| 0.04     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110107/0900Z  69  30012KT  16.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.7    0.000|| 0.04     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110107/1200Z  72  31015KT  15.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.7    0.000|| 0.04     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110107/1500Z  75  30015KT  15.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110107/1800Z  78  29016KT  17.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110107/2100Z  81  29013KT  17.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110108/0000Z  84  28009KT  13.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110108/0300Z  87  27010KT  12.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110108/0600Z  90  27009KT  12.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110108/0900Z  93  28007KT  11.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110108/1200Z  96  28006KT  10.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype  SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
110108/1500Z  99  28004KT  13.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110108/1800Z 102  27003KT  20.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110108/2100Z 105  VRB02KT  22.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110109/0000Z 108  VRB02KT  17.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110109/0300Z 111  04003KT  16.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110109/0600Z 114  08003KT  15.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110109/0900Z 117  08004KT  15.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110109/1200Z 120  08006KT  16.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110109/1500Z 123  11005KT  20.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110109/1800Z 126  07007KT  26.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110109/2100Z 129  08007KT  27.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0000Z 132  07007KT  21.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/0300Z 135  07007KT  20.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0600Z 138  08007KT  20.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0900Z 141  08007KT  20.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/1200Z 144  08008KT  21.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/1500Z 147  08009KT  23.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/1800Z 150  08010KT  29.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/2100Z 153  07013KT  29.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110111/0000Z 156  07013KT  25.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110111/0300Z 159  07010KT  24.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110111/0600Z 162  06018KT  24.3F  SNOW    13:1| 0.2|| 0.2    0.016|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110111/0900Z 165  05014KT  23.7F  SNOW    16:1| 2.3|| 2.5    0.146|| 0.16     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110111/1200Z 168  04014KT  23.2F  SNOW    16:1| 2.6|| 5.1    0.165|| 0.33     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110111/1500Z 171  03015KT  23.0F  SNOW    15:1| 1.6|| 6.7    0.110|| 0.44     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110111/1800Z 174  02014KT  23.7F  SNOW    16:1| 2.0|| 8.7    0.126|| 0.56     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110111/2100Z 177  01013KT  23.9F  SNOW    16:1| 1.3||10.0    0.083|| 0.65     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110112/0000Z 180  36011KT  24.4F  SNOW    15:1| 0.8||10.8    0.051|| 0.70     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
======================================================================================================================

baroclinic_instability · January 4, 2011

I'll be honest. I would take the euro itself over the ensembles. lol That is a killer wnw flow LES set up the euro has for here.

The positive it that a number of it's members are tracking s surface low to Ohio/Lake Erie and closing it off which yeah would be much better for here then some crappy eastcoast low that does zero for anyone out this way.

For now I am cutting it down the middle between ECM/GFS ensemble means. ECM has been on steroids lately with EC bombs, and that vortex it holds over the Great Lakes just looks odd. I doubt that feature will be able to completely shunt the push of warm air advection like the ECM currently has. 12Z GFS op hints at a sharp stretching deformation zone and a lot of dry air over the Lakes, so taking that into consideration, the a slightly S adjustment with its own ensemble mean, also inline with the pattern thus far, seems like a decent bet. Either way, MN is screwed, so I have no bias in this storm. At least we get some cold arctic air filtering down.

Powerball · January 4, 2011

I just got back and while reading through the pages I lol'd at the EURO. :lmao:

Anyone along/south of I-70 (And along/south of I-80 west of the Mississippi) should consider this storm a lock. I'm 99% confident on that much.

michsnowfreak · January 4, 2011

True, what miserable winter up there in 67-68 though. And I was just joking about it. LAF had 30" that season.

30.6" in DTW in 67-68. January was a nice wintry month, including snow depth to 10" mid-month following a 7.6" snowstorm on the 13/14th. Also had another good storm Mar 22/23, with 7.7" at DTW. This wasnt a great winter overall, but the only one in the '60s to feature two 6"+ storms.

baroclinic_instability · January 4, 2011

The 18Z GFS looks like a big pile of junk and a disorganized train-wreck through 132. It is less amplified and has a weaker secondary jet streak coming through the intermountain W. I have a feeling this will look more like the GFS ensemble mean.

michsnowfreak · January 4, 2011

QFT

Only thing that's going to be cutting up here in this threads time line is my Steele Reserve Farts.

Maybe around super bowl sunday winter will start here but I wouldn't bet on it.. And then winter is over in a little over a month.. IMO - March is not a winter month after the first week 9 times outta 10... So save me and yourselves the speech - Josh and others lol. March is the start of hanging your skidded up underpants and wives granny panties out on the line for the sun to dry season. And another thing.. All these folks and METS that are tooting a Rocking March or a back loaded winter are doing nothing but blowing smoke up my a.ss. Its never a good thing IMO when the consensus is thinking along the same lines... I should say this winter cancel rant is for MBY.. Other areas will probably continue to fair pretty well all things considered.

Wont give you a speech, just want to clarify something. When Ive been harping on a backloaded winter, I wasnt expecting dull until March. It means more late January onward, esp probably rockin' February.

baroclinic_instability · January 4, 2011

GFS salvages it at the end with a developing mid level low although it is weaker overall. Interesting to see the general trend the next couple days.

baroclinic_instability · January 4, 2011

Another feature worth watching is the cutoff low and how the model guidance handles that feature. It will have an effect on both moisture feed and low level warm air advection through the plains and the potential for upstream ridging in the mid levels. The CMC has a positive influence with that cutoff as it is both stronger and partially phased with the trough. Hence the far N outlier solution. GFS/ECM eject it faster and have an overall weaker depiction of that feature with the trough eventually lagging far behind. Trends on the cutoff should be watched closely as a result because it will have a large influence on how the main trough eventually develops.

michsnowfreak · January 4, 2011

id take the 18z gfs verbatum in a heartbeat lol

JoMo · January 4, 2011

Another feature worth watching is the cutoff low and how the model guidance handles that feature. It will have an effect on both moisture feed and low level warm air advection through the plains and the potential for upstream ridging in the mid levels. The CMC has a positive influence with that cutoff as it is both stronger and partially phased with the trough. Hence the far N outlier solution. GFS/ECM eject it faster and have an overall weaker depiction of that feature with the trough eventually lagging far behind. Trends on the cutoff should be watched closely as a result because it will have a large influence on how the main trough eventually develops.

Should be onshore Fri morning.

Harry · January 4, 2011

GFS salvages it at the end with a developing mid level low although it is weaker overall. Interesting to see the general trend the next couple days.

I don't think many around here could find much to complain about with this.

Except perhaps the folks in central Ohio. :arrowhead:

But yeah the next few days should be interesting to say the least.

Harry · January 4, 2011

For now I am cutting it down the middle between ECM/GFS ensemble means. ECM has been on steroids lately with EC bombs, and that vortex it holds over the Great Lakes just looks odd. I doubt that feature will be able to completely shunt the push of warm air advection like the ECM currently has. 12Z GFS op hints at a sharp stretching deformation zone and a lot of dry air over the Lakes, so taking that into consideration, the a slightly S adjustment with its own ensemble mean, also inline with the pattern thus far, seems like a decent bet. Either way, MN is screwed, so I have no bias in this storm. At least we get some cold arctic air filtering down.

I honestly have no opinion on this atleast till the late week/weekend stuff is sorted. Thus not sure what to think other then there is some potential there.

dilly84 · January 4, 2011

Yea harry I was gonna say, wth is with the hole lol. I may be in the blue there though haha

Thundersnow12 · January 4, 2011

I honestly have no opinion on this atleast till the late week/weekend stuff is sorted. Thus not sure what to think other then there is some potential there.

Agreed, and how the cutoff low plays out, those always seem to give models trouble.

toronto blizzard · January 4, 2011

FWIW... The 18z GFS ensemble mean shows a miller b solution with the primary low tracking up towards Erie PA before the secondary takes over.

snowstormcanuck · January 4, 2011

FWIW... The 18z GFS ensemble mean shows a miller b solution with the primary low tracking up towards Erie PA before the secondary takes over.

P003 plz!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html

toronto blizzard · January 4, 2011

P003 plz!

http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html

That does look nice. Hopefully this storm can track further NW to affect us and give us a snowstorm.

snowstormcanuck · January 4, 2011

That does look nice. Hopefully this storm can track further NW to affect us and give us a snowstorm.

Meh, I've lowered my standards big time. Even a grazing per the OP 18z GFS would make me ecstatic.

Harry · January 4, 2011

P003 plz!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html

I'll second this.. :thumbsup: :snowman:

Organizing Low · January 5, 2011

P003 plz!

http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html

wow

EPIC!

Hoosier · January 5, 2011

I still think it has the best verification, but as one would expect all models go to crap then and it is ensemble mean time by then. Unfortunately here the Euro ensemble mean looks a lot like the ECM op run.

Yeah it probably does. I just meant that it's outside of its wheelhouse time. I could've worded my post better.

baroclinic_instability · January 5, 2011

The 0Z NAM is trying to pull a Euro with a huge vortex sitting over the lakes through 84. A weird shift, even by the crappy NAM standards.

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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects

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