dilly84 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Jan 10-11th, 2011 Some KEY differences on the GFS/Euro runs at hour 144: The GFS has a broad, digging trough out west with a ridge popping and an axis centered near Ohio. The EURO on the other hand looks similar with the western trough although not closed and perhaps a tad weaker. HOWEVER it has an upper closed low centered over Michigan. So it's there on the Euro and not there on the GFS. Hmmmmm...Something has to give there. That may be a big key to whether we see a suppressed solution or an OV/western Apps track. As of right now, I would lean away from the Euro but it's too early to completely throw anything out IMO. Just as a reference to this potential. the gfs has had this on there for a while now. I actually mentioned it over a week ago lol two snowstorm shots on the long range gfs. just something to at least keep an eye on. Normally snows on my bday, Jan 10, and one of them are on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'll ride the best model and anticipate nothing but boring cold. QFT Only thing that's going to be cutting up here in this threads time line is my Steele Reserve Farts. Maybe around super bowl sunday winter will start here but I wouldn't bet on it.. And then winter is over in a little over a month.. IMO - March is not a winter month after the first week 9 times outta 10... So save me and yourselves the speech - Josh and others lol. March is the start of hanging your skidded up underpants and wives granny panties out on the line for the sun to dry season. And another thing.. All these folks and METS that are tooting a Rocking March or a back loaded winter are doing nothing but blowing smoke up my a.ss. Its never a good thing IMO when the consensus is thinking along the same lines... I should say this winter cancel rant is for MBY.. Other areas will probably continue to fair pretty well all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 17", good enough for my 2nd biggest storm ever. What's #1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 QFT Only thing that's going to be cutting up here in this threads time line is Steele Reserve Farts. Maybe around super bowl sunday winter will start here but I wouldn't bet on it.. And then winter is over in a little over a month.. IMO - March is not a winter month after the first week 9 times outta 10... - So save me and yourselves the speech - Josh and others lol. March is the start of hanging your skidded up underpants and wives granny panties out on the line for the sun to dry season. And another thing.. All these folks and METS that are tooting a Rocking March or a back loaded winter are doing nothing but blowing smoke up my a.ss. Its never a good thing IMO when the consensus is thinking along the same lines... I should say this winter cancel rant is for MBY.. Other areas will probably continue to fair pretty well all things considered. And I thought this POS winter was making me crazy. Bowme's certifiable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 QFT Only thing that's going to be cutting up here in this threads time line is my Steele Reserve Farts. Maybe around super bowl sunday winter will start here but I wouldn't bet on it.. And then winter is over in a little over a month.. IMO - March is not a winter month after the first week 9 times outta 10... - So save me and yourselves the speech - Josh and others lol. March is the start of hanging your skidded up underpants and wives granny panties out on the line for the sun to dry season. And another thing.. All these folks and METS that are tooting a Rocking March or a back loaded winter are doing nothing but blowing smoke up my a.ss. Its never a good thing IMO when the consensus is thinking along the same lines... I should say this winter cancel rant is for MBY.. Other areas will probably continue to fair pretty well all things considered. meh, it's only January 4th, things can change in a big way but i hate med/long range forcasting so i won't bother. I just think the seasonal trends looks to remain strong enough for the next 5-7 days to send this one west, south and east. If anything the blocks have been underdone, so corrections south are probably in order on the GFS and Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu...212.php#picture First half of that month was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 QFT Only thing that's going to be cutting up here in this threads time line is my Steele Reserve Farts. Maybe around super bowl sunday winter will start here but I wouldn't bet on it.. And then winter is over in a little over a month.. IMO - March is not a winter month after the first week 9 times outta 10... So save me and yourselves the speech - Josh and others lol. March is the start of hanging your skidded up underpants and wives granny panties out on the line for the sun to dry season. And another thing.. All these folks and METS that are tooting a Rocking March or a back loaded winter are doing nothing but blowing smoke up my a.ss. Its never a good thing IMO when the consensus is thinking along the same lines... I should say this winter cancel rant is for MBY.. Other areas will probably continue to fair pretty well all things considered. haha yeah these past 2 winters have been something else havent they? that said, march is my fave winter month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 QFT Only thing that's going to be cutting up here in this threads time line is my Steele Reserve Farts. Maybe around super bowl sunday winter will start here but I wouldn't bet on it.. And then winter is over in a little over a month.. IMO - March is not a winter month after the first week 9 times outta 10... So save me and yourselves the speech - Josh and others lol. March is the start of hanging your skidded up underpants and wives granny panties out on the line for the sun to dry season. And another thing.. All these folks and METS that are tooting a Rocking March or a back loaded winter are doing nothing but blowing smoke up my a.ss. Its never a good thing IMO when the consensus is thinking along the same lines... I should say this winter cancel rant is for MBY.. Other areas will probably continue to fair pretty well all things considered. What's the record for least snowiest season at MKE? I mean we might as well go for the gusto... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What's the record for least snowiest season at MKE? I mean we might as well go for the gusto... 1967..around 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And I thought this POS winter was making me crazy. Bowme's certifiable. I don't know how you did it last year but I am already a little whiney biatch looking for my vagisil and pamprin because my Ice PU$$ie is hurting. I just don't see a whole lot of change in the future to winter up here either.. Hope I'm proved wrong by the back loaded and March will be rocking crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't know how you did it last year but I am already a little whiney biatch looking for my vagisil and pamprin because my Ice PU$$ie is hurting. I just don't see a whole lot of change in the future to winter up here either.. Hope I'm proved wrong by the back loaded and March will be rocking crowd And i thought i was bad. I fully understand though. BTW.. Euro ensembles still look Miller b'ish. One piece of energy to Ohio and then Coastal. Interestingly though the ensembles have been closing off by the energy on this side of the apps over top of MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 haha yeah these past 2 winters have been something else havent they? that said, march is my fave winter month Yeah March can be exciting and its the start of the best ice fishing time.. Only thing that sucks about March snow is its lucky to last longer than Oprah Winfrey can last on a Diet. I'm done derailing this thread and will get back to my regulary scheduled 18z porn watching since the weather models haven't given me none since the winter of 08/09 You know the last two winters have sucked so far when you can't even get a 324 hr fantasy storm to show its face on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 1967..around 12" 1967-68 it is. Wow, what a poo-poo platter that season was for MKE. Looking through the dailies on the Utah Climate site, 2" was the biggest storm on 1/14/68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 1967-68 it is. Wow, what a poo-poo platter that season was for MKE. Looking through the dailies on the Utah Climate site, 2" was the biggest storm on 1/14/68. Unless the second half of winter torches its seems almost impossible to break that 12" record. How did LAF do that winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Can't even lake fish on winnebago right now. So many cracks in the ice etc. Police are warning people to stay off the ice. They had to rescue like 10 cars/trucks over the weekend because of the ice cracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't know how you did it last year but I am already a little whiney biatch looking for my vagisil and pamprin because my Ice PU$$ie is hurting. I just don't see a whole lot of change in the future to winter up here either.. Hope I'm proved wrong by the back loaded and March will be rocking crowd Basically: Dec 2009: Oh, it's just an off month Jan 2010: Well it's cold. Just gotta wait for a system to come north and I'll get mine. Feb 2010: Don Sutherland says climo and weakening block will shift things north. Mar 2010: GFS shows sunny and 40s as far as the eye can see. I'm f*cked, move on to next winter. That's the general narrative, but there were plenty of times when I moaned and bitched too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I will wait until about Jan 7th to decide what the storm is going to do. Could either turn out to be the Christmas Storm repeat, or the New Years storm repeat. I remain confident we will see some snow through this area (meaning NE IL/NW IN) I don't know about BowMe country up there, because he's about 110 miles north of me, and that can make a world of difference. Nonetheless if the blocking is weakening as seems to be the agreement with some, then it's a good thing. If the blocking is in place, or in Alek's estimation, is underdone, then that's not a good thing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Unless the second half of winter torches its seems almost impossible to break that 12" record. How did LAF do that winter? True, what miserable winter up there in 67-68 though. And I was just joking about it. LAF had 30" that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 True, what miserable winter up there in 67-68 though. And I was just joking about it. LAF had 30" that season. I was just wondering if you guys did a lot better south, kinna like this winter so far and indeed you did. Doesn't leave me with anymore confidence that this winter will turn around. up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 1967-68 it is. Wow, what a poo-poo platter that season was for MKE. Looking through the dailies on the Utah Climate site, 2" was the biggest storm on 1/14/68. For here it kinda sucked as well with 41.5". There was one event of exactly 6 inches in Jan ( 14/15th ) and two storms in March with 5.2" on the 12th and 7.4" on the 22/23rd. other then that all 1-3" inch events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I was just wondering if you guys did a lot better south, kinna like this winter so far and indeed you did. Doesn't leave me with anymore confidence that this winter will turn around. up here. It was a moderate Nina.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Can't even lake fish on winnebago right now. So many cracks in the ice etc. Police are warning people to stay off the ice. They had to rescue like 10 cars/trucks over the weekend because of the ice cracks. LoL at warning to stay off the ice.. Ice cracks happen every yr on that lake.. Ice can be 14" like now or 30" and you will still get cracks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It was a moderate Nina.. Thanks I better by extra vagisil or the rest of you all fresh batteries for the ignore button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 For here it kinda sucked as well with 41.5". There was one event of exactly 6 inches in Jan ( 14/15th ) and two storms in March with 5.2" on the 12th and 7.4" on the 22/23rd. other then that all 1-3" inch events. Just to enhance the snowfall map visual, there was 45.3" here. So S/E wasn't the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Just as a reference to this potential. the gfs has had this on there for a while now. I actually mentioned it over a week ago lol Snows on your birthday normally? Then it's a lock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Snows on your birthday normally? Then it's a lock! It normally does, even if it is just snow showers. Supposedly the day I was born was bad. Rain to zr to sn. but obviously I dont remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Just to enhance the snowfall map visiual, there was 45.3" here. So S/E wasn't the problem. Was above normal precip for D/J/F but most of what made it above normal happened in December which ala featured a torch like pattern/above normal temps east of the Rockies. Looks like blocking of some sort took over in Jan and Feb with below normal temps in the east and really centered in the se in Feb. Very dry outside the Lakes which had normal precip oddly enough despite the temps in Feb which suggests otherwise. Odd winter to say the least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 LOT BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN TRENDS TO CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW A GOOD NUMBER OF MEMBERS INDICATING THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. HOWEVER...NOT SURPRISINGLY THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE MEMBERS. THEREFORE IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY. BUT WHERE EXACTLY IT TRACKS AND HOW STRONG IT GETS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO PIN DOWN. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHAT THE UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY DOES LATER THIS WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 DSM LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOT TO MULL OVER IN THE COMING DAYS. CURRENT GFS/GEM PAINT A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING WITH A PROLONGED SNOW EVENT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE EURO KEEPS THE STREAMS SEPARATE WITH LITTLE IF ANY QPF ACROSS THE FCST AREA. EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAM ENERGY DIG WITH TIME BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN A TOTALLY DRY SOLN GIVEN SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GEM/GFS...HAVE COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES/HPC TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COBB SNOWFALL OUTPUT BRINGS SUBSTANTIAL AMTS TO REGION AS WELL AS 12Z GEM OUTPUT...SO WITH THE CURRENT LACK OF CONFIDENCE AND VASTLY DIFFERING SOLNS...A LOT MORE WORK TO SORT OUT DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS PRIOR TO GETTING TOO EXCITED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Basically: Dec 2009: Oh, it's just an off month Jan 2010: Well it's cold. Just gotta wait for a system to come north and I'll get mine. Feb 2010: Don Sutherland says climo and weakening block will shift things north. Mar 2010: GFS shows sunny and 40s as far as the eye can see. I'm f*cked, move on to next winter. That's the general narrative, but there were plenty of times when I moaned and bitched too. Dec 2010: Thank God it's not last winter.....oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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