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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects


Madmaxweather

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One minor thing to note for everyone here. When assessing a DGZ, one must not simply assess if the sounding is saturated through the optimal thermal regime, but one must assess vertical ascent through that layer as well as moisture levels to fully come to a conclusion. Crystal growth is a pretty challenging thing to truly forecast and is quite fickle. Even dendrite growth alone can happen but be sub-optimal depending on a number of factors.

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HR 12: LT precip in N. KS, and all of NE. LT-MOD precip in C. NE.

HR 18: LT precip in very N. KS and LT-MOD precip in N. Neb. and SW Neb. LT precip in all of NE besides those areas.

HR 24: LT precip in N. KS. LT-MOD precip in W and C Neb. LT precip in rest of Neb.

HR 30: LT precip in C/N/W KS. LT precip in C/N/W Neb. LT-Mod precip in E Neb.

HR 36: LT precip in S. KS. LT-MOD precip rest of KS. LT-Mod precip in SE Neb and W. IA.

HR 42: LT precip in KS/NEB. LT-MOD precip in W. IA. Spot of LT-MOD precip in NE KS, NE Neb.

HR 48: LT precip in NE/KS/MO/MN/W. WI. LT-Mod precip in W/C IA. LT precip in rest of IA as well.

HR 54: LT-MOD precip in W/C Neb. LT precip in E. KS/E. NEB/MN/IA/WI/IL/S.IND

HR 60: LT precip in MN/IA/WI/IL/IN/OH. LT-MOD precip in E/NE MO/ and W. IL

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I can't say for sure. The fact that he believes he was banned for the GGEM site error leads me to believe he was only posting in this area.

He only posted here, and in the off-topic "Winter Complaint" thread. Considering one of our own regional posters went there earlier this winter and made an attack thread against Ohio posters without getting banned, I don't think it was for that.

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He only posted here, and in the off-topic "Winter Complaint" thread. Considering one of our own regional posters went there earlier this winter and made an attack thread against Ohio posters without getting banned, I don't think it was for that.

He was posting weenie comments about how every model was showing less and less precip for his back yard, and how this storm was going to be a fail, and this and that. Quite frankly there was very little change in the new 00z run. He claims that Ohio posters get constantly attacked, well quite frankly I have never had any problems. It is all about how you present yourself, but when you post and provide nothing insightful, what does he expect?

The only thing you are doing is cluttering this post with this junk, so if it needs to be discussed further take it to OT.

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HR 12: LT precip in N. KS, and all of NE. LT-MOD precip in C. NE.

HR 18: LT precip in very N. KS and LT-MOD precip in N. Neb. and SW Neb. LT precip in all of NE besides those areas.

HR 24: LT precip in N. KS. LT-MOD precip in W and C Neb. LT precip in rest of Neb.

HR 30: LT precip in C/N/W KS. LT precip in C/N/W Neb. LT-Mod precip in E Neb.

HR 36: LT precip in S. KS. LT-MOD precip rest of KS. LT-Mod precip in SE Neb and W. IA.

HR 42: LT precip in KS/NEB. LT-MOD precip in W. IA. Spot of LT-MOD precip in NE KS, NE Neb.

HR 48: LT precip in NE/KS/MO/MN/W. WI. LT-Mod precip in W/C IA. LT precip in rest of IA as well.

HR 54: LT-MOD precip in W/C Neb. LT precip in E. KS/E. NEB/MN/IA/WI/IL/S.IND

HR 60: LT precip in MN/IA/WI/IL/IN/OH. LT-MOD precip in E/NE MO/ and W. IL

yikes, that does not sound good for here. Thanks for posting this Moneyman.

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He was posting weenie comments about how every model was showing less and less precip for his back yard, and how this storm was going to be a fail, and this and that. Quite frankly there was very little change in the new 00z run. He claims that Ohio posters get constantly attacked, well quite frankly I have never had any problems. It is all about how you present yourself, but when you post and provide nothing insightful, what does he expect?

The only thing you are doing is cluttering this post with this junk, so if it needs to be discussed further take it to OT.

Um, well, his particular area did see a decrease in qpf with the 0Z run. Nothing wrong with pointing that out. As for this storm being a fail, the trend this winter is that every storm in our area has ended up drying up and underperforming. I understand the skepticism. So pointing out a decrease in 0Z run qpf and pointing out a seasonal trend in our area is grounds for punishment? Um, ok.

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Not sure what to make of the Euro going weaker, even the GFS trended slightly stronger. So the Euro really is on its own on this one.

I'm not really sure there is that big of a difference comparing the 0z run to the 12z run. Matter of fact, it looks better (farther east with the 0.25" line) for people in IA, MN, and STL.

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Dilly was just frustrated...I think most of us in wpa and oh have been..seen a whole bunch of 4-6 storms in the mid range get closer to the short range and we end up hoping for 1-3...every system this year has fizzled by the time it got to this area.

As far as him getting 5 posted, I understand...however, there is a major disparity on here with WHO gets post limits. I see phineas on

The model thread, which aren't supposed to be cluttered, every night basically saying. "this sucks" over and over, and ji weenieing out every 5 minutes and somehow their posts aren't deleted and they aren't 5 posted.

My advice to the mods would be to treat everyone the same, even if they are people like phineas who has been around a long time.

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