TheWeatherPimp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 84 12z hr 84 0z Not even close.. a lot slower on the 0z and stronger on the 12z.. I wouldnt call that a carbon copy. come on. jeeze. Dude lay off the boos, you can't compare the 84 hr 12z and 84 hr 00z, there is a 12 hour difference there lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Will be interesting to see the CIPS analogs. I'd almost bet money that 12/8/05 is on there somewhere. It was nowhere to be found based off the 12z GFS run. And for those who haven't seen that site: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Eh, I looked up where Warsaw is...still think you're in line for 2-4". Have a little faith man. I mean come on. you track winter storms.. So surely you know how fristrating it is to sit for a week tracking storms only to get screwed at the end. This is 4 out of 4 this year, that its basically dies out before it reached me after spending a lot of hours tracking. It pis*es me off. ive gone from 5-6" on 12z to 1-3 onevery run minus the gfs cause it has never been very good for my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Will be interesting to see the CIPS analogs. I'd almost bet money that 12/8/05 is on there somewhere. We will have to wait until the 0Z GFS since the 12Z won't be representative of the event since it hadn't made the proper dynamic changes yet. For fun though, here is the current 12Z GFS centered over the area. http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=072&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If you're comparing runs of the GGEM you might want to use the same time in each run (84 hours at 12Z would be 72 hours at 0Z). BUT, you are drunk and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Dude lay off the boos, you can't compare the 84 hr 12z and 84 hr 00z, there is a 12 hour difference there lmao. the 0z is slower. I can compare the 72hr 12z to the 84hr 0z, and then it looks even worse.. Has nothing to do with booze.. How can you say it isnt weaker for CMH east.. am I missing something here. every model has been weaker for cmh east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not even close.. a lot slower on the 0z and stronger on the 12z.. I wouldnt call that a carbon copy. come on. jeeze. Try matching up the same timeframes and then get back to me. jeeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Why won't this draw moisture of the Atlantic? it seems so dry...I don't get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Try matching up the same timeframes and then get back to me. jeeze. there above.. now do you understand why I comapred 84 and 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the 0z is slower. I can compare the 72hr 12z to the 84hr 0z, and then it looks even worse.. Has nothing to do with booze.. How can you say it isnt weaker for CMH east.. am I missing something here. every model has been weaker for cmh east. You went 12 hours the wrong way. Compare hour 96 from the 12z to hour 84 of the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah I thought the darn thing had not updated because it was basically at the same time frame that it had QPF this time last night. I am very tired driving 20+hrs in the last 36 hrs will kick your butt especially in blinding snows when you have idiots that don't know how to drive in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is last night's run. Sober up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Will be interesting to see the CIPS analogs. I'd almost bet money that 12/8/05 is on there somewhere. I still remember that night pretty good. That was the night the plane went through the wall at MDW and hit the car and killed alittle kid I picked up about 5" or so but MDW picked up 3" in one hour LOT's best winter storm event write up IMO http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=13450&source=2 and the radar loop.. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=2005&month=12&day=8&hour=12&minute=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 there above.. now do you understand why I comapred 84 and 84? On the color maps, the 0z run shows up as 0z Tuesday for me, versus the 12z run at 0z Wednesday. Here's the b/w maps for 0z Wednesday...tonight's 0z run first, 12z second. You tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 dont know if this was posted earlier but LOT's AFD done by Gino from this afternoon. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE A BREAKING OFF A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH NO OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE...MODEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SCANT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SO COULD BE A DRY AND QUITE FLOOFY OF A SNOW. NOT LOOKING LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT BUT STILL COULD BE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 lol so is that CMC updated? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We will have to wait until the 0Z GFS since the 12Z won't be representative of the event since it hadn't made the proper dynamic changes yet. For fun though, here is the current 12Z GFS centered over the area. http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=072&flg=new You have any thoughts on the viability of 12/8/05 as an analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, the site that dilly was pasting from was in error, not dilly. It was the sites error, and yet he gets banned for it? Pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 The hours were screwed up I think because I was clicking on 84hrs and getting QPF then now I clicked on 72hr and its the same thing I saw 10 min ago on 84hr... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 lol so is that CMC updated? lol Yes sir. No driving through heavy snow to get it needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The hours were screwed up I think because I was clicking on 84hrs and getting QPF then now I clicked on 72hr and its the same thing I saw 10 min ago on 84hr... LOL Yep, the site was messed up/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yeah the Canadian site images tend to get stuck in your browser's cache or something. You can go there, have it be the image 24 hours earlier, refresh and it's a new image, refresh again and it's back to the old image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yep, the site was messed up/ Dilly wasn't lying lol.. I thought I was on drugs or something. Anyway the QPF is about the same as other models between .25-.30 and I do think we will see a slight uptick to about .35 closer to the event. My early call for Cincinnati is 3-4 Dayton 3-5 I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Dilly wasn't lying lol.. No, he wasn't. Whoever banned him for it should unban him and offer a sincere apology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 EURO has started. HR 6: LT precip in Neb./W. SD/W. ND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 No, he wasn't. Whoever banned him for it should unban him and offer a sincere apology. How do you know he got banned? What did he do? I was basically doing the same thing just not posting as much about it. He may of got into in PM with a mod or something. Who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 dont know if this was posted earlier but LOT's AFD done by Gino from this afternoon. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE A BREAKING OFF A FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH NO OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE...MODEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SCANT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SO COULD BE A DRY AND QUITE FLOOFY OF A SNOW. NOT LOOKING LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT BUT STILL COULD BE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS. Floofy? o.O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 No, he wasn't. Whoever banned him for it should unban him and offer a sincere apology. He was still an out of control drunk weenie tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You have any thoughts on the viability of 12/8/05 as an analog? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2005/us1229j3.php There are some similarities, especially in the track of the 700 hpa low. There are of course a lot of differences too including the orientation/amplitude of the overall trough. This storm threat here will feature is much more focused leading S/W interacting with a somewhat high amplitude shortwave ridge. This storm will also feature a nice inverted trough feature and a fetch of moisture long after the main system departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 For Ohio it's almost looking like I-71 is going to be the dividing line with the better chance for 4+ inches to the north and west and a bit less south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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