TimChgo9 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Struggling to remember what the DGZ is and it's significance. I remember reading about it, and now, I can't remember what the heck it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not looking bad my early call for my area is a solid 3-4 Did anyone from Ohio see that 180-192 BS LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Struggling to remember what the DGZ is and it's significance. I remember reading about it, and now, I can't remember what the heck it is... Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but DGZ is basically where snowflakes form in the atmosphere. The deeper it is (the more millibars it encompasses) the better potential for good snowflake production you'll have. It's not the be all end all however. You also need strong lift and moisture in that zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 As I said earlier today, this is about the most confident I've felt all year in terms of snow potential. FWIW, dry air looks like it could be a problem in Southern and Southeastern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Models are waxing and waning a little run to run around here, but something in the 2-4 inch range is looking pretty good barring a late dry air push from the ne. I'll take it. I just want to get some snow back on the ground before winter's peak arrives. Yeah that dry zone the 12z and 18z portrayed wasn't especially pleasing for our areas lol. It's encouraging to see the 00zs come in a bit wetter for us. I'm starting to feel pretty good about 2-3" for the QCA. It's nothing really all that exciting, but at least it gets the ground white again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I lived that for 30yrs in that area/region before moving out this way. In 1997-98 winter never did arrive and not a flake was seen by me that winter. Ofcourse that is the extreme and the only time i seen that happen but still. Still not over with but yeah trends are not on their side at this point. I personally believe that area in NOVA/DC/BA and western VA is one of the hardest locations to forecast for. The Appalachians make sure there is never a truly good widespread "synoptic" event, and of course dealing with most coastal events is always highly sensitive and difficult forecasts. This forecast is another example of the difficulties forecasting that area. Throw in weird snow squalls/showery events (like the one this morning) that develop off the Appalachians and it can be unpredictable at times. The crazy microscale weather phenomena in the Appalachians make western VA awful along with NC. Some of the craziest weather develops in that little region, especially in cold NW flow with lake enhanced moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 quite the deep DGZ for up here..given the depth of the DGZ and the good ratios, this thing is going to overperform in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but DGZ is basically where snowflakes form in the atmosphere. The deeper it is (the more millibars it encompasses) the better potential for good snowflake production you'll have. It's not the be all end all however. You also need strong lift and moisture in that zone. you got it, would have to get some descent vertical motions through that zone but the deeper it its, the better chance you have at seeing those bigger dendrites that fluff up nicely. on 12/26/09 we had a DGZ of around 400mb deep! I have the sounding somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 you got it, would have to get some descent vertical motions through that zone but the deeper it its, the better chance you have at seeing those bigger dendrites that fluff up nicely. on 12/26/09 we had a DGZ of around 400mb deep! I have the sounding somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 As I said earlier today, this is about the most confident I've felt all year in terms of snow potential. FWIW, dry air looks like it could be a problem in Southern and Southeastern Michigan. I think the dry air will be overcame quickly as I believe Baroclinic mentioned. Also note the propagation vectors on the map, the moisture will be drawn in very quickly. Plus this is at the very start of the event up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 you got it, would have to get some descent decent vertical motions through that zone but the deeper it its, the better chance you have at seeing those bigger dendrites that fluff up nicely. on 12/26/09 we had a DGZ of around 400mb deep! I have the sounding somewhere. Haha I see what you mean, but the way you wrote it looks like you are saying descent--in other words, subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 528 thickness across most of the Ohio Valley during the snow event would indicate ball park snow ratios of 16:1 - 20:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Haha I see what you mean, but the way you wrote it looks like you are saying descent--in other words, subsidence. whoops my bad, scratch the s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 528 thickness across most of the Ohio Valley during the snow event would indicate ball park snow ratios of 16:1 - 20:1 The thing I would watch especially for southern Ohio is where the surface low tracks, if it ends up being north then those areas might end up in a dryslot screw zone as the better deformation snows would be along and north of the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 baroclinic, summon the weather gods and make this storm go farther south. I don't like being on the border of 1" while just to the NW is 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I personally believe that area in NOVA/DC/BA and western VA is one of the hardest locations to forecast for. The Appalachians make sure there is never a truly good widespread "synoptic" event, and of course dealing with most coastal events is always highly sensitive and difficult forecasts. This forecast is another example of the difficulties forecasting that area. Throw in weird snow squalls/showery events (like the one this morning) that develop off the Appalachians and it can be unpredictable at times. The crazy microscale weather phenomena in the Appalachians make western VA awful along with NC. Some of the craziest weather develops in that little region, especially in cold NW flow with lake enhanced moisture. Oh indeed it is. Can even include the eastern sections to the coast/Delmarva on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Doesn't look like much change on the 0z GGEM other than being a bit better for MI and ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Has the CMC updated yet? The hours seem slower lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Doesn't look like much change on the 0z GGEM other than being a bit better for MI and ON. and its worse for OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 baroclinic, summon the weather gods and make this storm go farther south. I don't like being on the border of 1" while just to the NW is 6". I think you will muster a solid 2" or so, maybe 3". Definitely not the worst there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 baroclinic, summon the weather gods and make this storm go farther south. I don't like being on the border of 1" while just to the NW is 6". Some good wind behind the cold front with good mixing potential through stout CAA and nice lapse rates. It will be wintery out there no doubt. Some blowing/drifting seems likely even with 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 and its worse for OH. And you're more drunk. It's almost a carbon copy of the 12z run. Never was going to be a huge storm...take your 2-4", maybe upwards of 5", and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think you will muster a solid 2" or so, maybe 3". Definitely not the worst there. baro, what you thinking up our way? MPX saying 3-6" along & south of i-94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 And you're more drunk. It's almost a carbon copy of the 12z run. Never was going to be a huge storm...take your 2-4", maybe upwards of 5", and enjoy. you all keep thinking I am near CMH I am 70 miles NE of CMH.. and sorry but per the gem and nam it isnt even close to 5" more like 1-3" and the same with the nam. I am leaning more towards 1.5" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 baro, what you thinking up our way? MPX saying 3-6" along & south of i-94 Almost exactly what I was thinking, 3-5". These persistent light snow events with these inverted troughs with so much fluff add up nicely, and they can last longer than the models suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Will be interesting to see the CIPS analogs. I'd almost bet money that 12/8/05 is on there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 you all keep thinking I am near CMH I am 70 miles NE of CMH.. and sorry but per the gem and nam it isnt even close to 5" more like 1-3" and the same with the nam. I am leaning more towards 1.5" total. Eh, I looked up where Warsaw is...still think you're in line for 2-4". Have a little faith man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 And you're more drunk. It's almost a carbon copy of the 12z run. Never was going to be a huge storm...take your 2-4", maybe upwards of 5", and enjoy. hr 84 12z hr 84 0z Not even close.. a lot slower on the 0z and stronger on the 12z.. I wouldnt call that a carbon copy. come on. jeeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Some good wind behind the cold front with good mixing potential through stout CAA and nice lapse rates. It will be wintery out there no doubt. Some blowing/drifting seems likely even with 2-3". Going off what, the GFS or NAM? The NAM is very very close to not much. I think it's due to a trough developing. The best precip is NW of the higher RH here on the NAM over E Kansas. The GFS does not have that and keeps it all saturated. Is that what's happening on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 00z gfs updated clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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