baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I always believe in things even out, karma, etc. They got dumped on last year. Just like how MSP is behind detroit about 60 inches the past 8 years and they are closely erasing that so far this year. After last season, they have no room to b***h. BTW, I'm taking these latest trends with a grain of salt. I would certainly be pleasantly suprised with a Chicago-Detroit-Toronto snowfall, we haven't had one all season, but there's still plenty of room for change (for better or worse). Yeah don't get me wrong I am glad my forecast tanked for my own BY and we will get 3-5" fluff. I will say MPX has not done all that superb this winter besides one storm. Take out the anomalous northern plains blizzard and we are right at average climo wise. Almost everyone on the boards (not you) is hounding MPX and saying they want storms to go wide/around MPX or would get pissed if another storm went through. In reality, we are back to normal--it goes to show how anomalous it has been the last 8-10 years that folks expect MPX/southern MN to do poorly and when we are at or slightly above average they believe we are being blessed by the weather gods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I lived that for 30yrs in that area/region before moving out this way. In 1997-98 winter never did arrive and not a flake was seen by me that winter. Ofcourse that is the extreme and the only time i seen that happen but still. Still not over with but yeah trends are not on their side at this point. Incredible. Not one flake of snow for an entire winter. I couldn't imagine such a horror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 cmh west.. what have we become that a 3" snowfall is a snow storm? Ohio guys (myself included) are so desparate for snow that a 3" snow is considered a storm.. I am sticking with my 1-3" call. If anything, CMH gets donut holed and your area gets more than us. Either way, you need to lighten up a bit, my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You need this one. What'd you call for two 6"+ events this winter for LAF? Yeah, would be nice to get something right since the temps and probably total snow won't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 JAY.. see the screw zone. .1 - .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 gfs weak for cmh east as well. done. congrats detroit. You win with the north trend. I'm not sure what North trend or even wth you are talking about, but the NAM gave most of Ohio a solid 2-5 inches!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If anything, CMH gets donut holed and your area gets more than us. Either way, you need to lighten up a bit, my friend Nah I am annoyed. To be quite frank I am fed up with tracking storms this year that show good snows for us for them to change every time within 2 or 3 days. Waste 6 days tracking a 2-3" snowstorm. Its freaking frustrating. Makes me wanna punch puppies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm not sure what North trend or even wth you are talking about, but the NAM gave most of Ohio a solid 2-5 inches!!!!!!!!!! And the GFS is finally starting to trend that way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah don't get me wrong I am glad my forecast tanked for my own BY and we will get 3-5" fluff. I will say MPX has not done all that superb this winter besides one storm. Take out the anomalous northern plains blizzard and we are right at average climo wise. Everyone on the baords (not you) is hounding MPX and saying they want storms to go wide/around MPX or would get pissed if another storm went through. In reality, we are back to normal--it goes to show how anomalous it has been the last 8-10 years that folks expect MPX/southern MN to do poorly and when we are at or slightly above average they believe we are being blessed by the weather gods. I agree. Besides that one storm (only storm we've had here in Se MI) there really havent been any monsters in the upper midwest. Ratios have been so high that the snow amounts have been high but the storms relatively weren't that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like I need to calm down a little bit. LMK still somehow gets into the .25-.50 range on the GFS. Hoping things look better tomorrow night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah don't get me wrong I am glad my forecast tanked for my own BY and we will get 3-5" fluff. I will say MPX has not done all that superb this winter besides one storm. Take out the anomalous northern plains blizzard and we are right at average climo wise. Everyone on the baords (not you) is hounding MPX and saying they want storms to go wide/around MPX or would get pissed if another storm went through. In reality, we are back to normal--it goes to show how anomalous it has been the last 8-10 years that folks expect MPX/southern MN to do poorly and when we are at or slightly above average they believe we are being blessed by the weather gods. MSP was long overdue for a good season. Doesn't matter how you get there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm not sure what North trend or even wth you are talking about, but the NAM gave most of Ohio a solid 2-5 inches!!!!!!!!!! Bufkit at 18z gave me 5" 0z gave me 3" look at the map that hoosier posted. youll see my point. Dont help that Im drunk and ticked off lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, would be nice to get something right since the temps and probably total snow won't work out. Tell me about it. All for the good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 And the GFS is finally starting to trend that way as well. 18z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah don't get me wrong I am glad my forecast tanked for my own BY and we will get 3-5" fluff. I will say MPX has not done all that superb this winter besides one storm. Take out the anomalous northern plains blizzard and we are right at average climo wise. Almost everyone on the boards (not you) is hounding MPX and saying they want storms to go wide/around MPX or would get pissed if another storm went through. In reality, we are back to normal--it goes to show how anomalous it has been the last 8-10 years that folks expect MPX/southern MN to do poorly and when we are at or slightly above average they believe we are being blessed by the weather gods. You guys definitely were long overdue for a decent season. However, it's funny how these things workout. Detroit has had several decent seasons in the past few years, yet we're long overdue for a 12"+ bomb (although Minneapolis/MPX had one this season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 MSP was long overdue for a good season. Doesn't matter how you get there though. Yeah I am glad for the industries around here too. A lot of businesses which rely on snow/cold had been struggling mightily the last 10 years. Glad to see normal again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 RGEM at 48 looks a good match with the NAM at 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 One of my biggest frustrations on here is that people get hung up on a single model run. 72 hours out, the models won't have the QPF right and it will change another 5-10 times before the event gets underway. The more important things to look at are the track of the storm, vertical moisture transport, the Dendritic growth zone, snow ratios, etc. It is futile to get yourself worked up over a model's QPF 72 hours out, especially when it only changes .1 - .2 tenths of an inch! QPF should be used as general guidance but not when deciding whether to keep the bus on the road or drive it off the cliff, at least IMO. This was never going to be a blockbuster storm, so the fact that we could be looking at a widespread 3-6 inch snow event is pretty impressive IMO, especially considering what has happened so far this season across much of the Ohio Valley (Not counting the snow gods living in LAF). Anyways, this thing looks good, Good moisture transport, good lift, nice snow ratios, this will be a widespread advisory/border line warning snow event for a large portion of the Ohio Valley. Just let it ride rather than hanging on to every model run. Rant over. Oh by the way, the Colts shouldn't run the ball, they suck at running! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You guys definitely were long overdue for a decent season. However, it's funny how these things workout. Detroit has had several decent seasons in the past few years, yet we're long overdue for a 12"+ bomb (although Minneapolis has one this season). Yeah I am hoping for a good region wide storm. In reality we still have a good 3-4 months for that to happen. We still have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You guys definitely were long overdue for a decent season. However, it's funny how these things workout. Detroit has had several decent seasons in the past few years, yet we're long overdue for a 12"+ bomb (although Minneapolis has one this season). Sorry for being OT, but detroit hasnt had a bomb but you travel 40 miles north where I am in Macomb and we have had several 10 inch plus events in the past several years. Crazy how sharp the cutoff has been. It's harder here because usually the ratios aren't very high so we need a lot of precip to get over a foot. Minneapolis can get a foot with far less precip due to ratios. As far as the mid-atlantic and east coast go, we all know why they get 20 inch plus storms. As far as this storm goes if we can overcome virga quickly, and we get .3-.4 of precip 6 inches looks attainable. Long way to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'll take a solid 2-3 inches from this storm, and then maybe a 4-5 inch event for the 2nd storm (late week) I'll be here for the euro, don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 One of my biggest frustrations on here is that people get hung up on a single model run. 72 hours out, the models won't have the QPF right and it will change another 5-10 times before the event gets underway. The more important things to look at are the track of the storm, vertical moisture transport, the Dendritic growth zone, snow ratios, etc. It is futile to get yourself worked up over a model's QPF 72 hours out, especially when it only changes .1 - .2 tenths of an inch! QPF should be used as general guidance but not when deciding whether to keep the bus on the road or drive it off the cliff, at least IMO. This was never going to be a blockbuster storm, so the fact that we could be looking at a widespread 3-6 inch snow event is pretty impressive IMO, especially considering what has happened so far this season across much of the Ohio Valley (Not counting the snow gods living in LAF). Anyways, this thing looks good, Good moisture transport, good lift, nice snow ratios, this will be a widespread advisory/border line warning snow event for a large portion of the Ohio Valley. Just let it ride rather than hanging on to every model run. Rant over. Oh by the way, the Colts shouldn't run the ball, they suck at running! +1 +100 to the snow gods living in LAF comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Incredible. Not one flake of snow for an entire winter. I couldn't imagine such a horror. I spent half of it in VA Beach but yeah not a flake. Oddly enough i was not as bothered by it as one might expect. Ofcourse there was a ton of other action ( forgotten stuff such a epic coastal flooding etc where i lived ) to occupy my time with. I think part of it too is that there was no teases and it was warm enough to enjoy being out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 One of my biggest frustrations on here is that people get hung up on a single model run. 72 hours out, the models won't have the QPF right and it will change another 5-10 times before the event gets underway. The more important things to look at are the track of the storm, vertical moisture transport, the Dendritic growth zone, snow ratios, etc. It is futile to get yourself worked up over a model's QPF 72 hours out, especially when it only changes .1 - .2 tenths of an inch! QPF should be used as general guidance but not when deciding whether to keep the bus on the road or drive it off the cliff, at least IMO. This was never going to be a blockbuster storm, so the fact that we could be looking at a widespread 3-6 inch snow event is pretty impressive IMO, especially considering what has happened so far this season across much of the Ohio Valley (Not counting the snow gods living in LAF). Anyways, this thing looks good, Good moisture transport, good lift, nice snow ratios, this will be a widespread advisory/border line warning snow event for a large portion of the Ohio Valley. Just let it ride rather than hanging on to every model run. Rant over. Oh by the way, the Colts shouldn't run the ball, they suck at running! I know youre referring to me. But I can clearly see that pertaining to CMH-east things are going the wrong way. I've been tracking storm for 9 years and if there is one thing I have learned it's that once a trend starts it continues. You arent going to tell me that this isnt northwest of 18z. I can post the comparisons and show you but you can go look. Not to mention I already said Im drunk and annoyed lol. not teo mention it is easy for you to say that. Youre biggest snowfall of the season is a bit larger than 1.5" which is what mine is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I know youre referring to me. But I can clearly see that pertaining to CMH-east things are going the wrong way. I've been tracking storm for 9 years and if there is one thing I have learned it's that once a trend starts it continues. You arent going to tell me that this isnt northwest of 18z. I can post the comparisons and show you but you can go look. Not to mention I already said Im drunk and annoyed lol. not teo mention it is easy for you to say that. Youre biggest snowfall of the season is a bit larger than 1.5" which is what mine is. its ok the ukie isnt amped up the nogaps aint either still things to be decided yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 its ok the ukie isnt amped up the nogaps aint either still things to be decided yet Thanks for the comfort lol. Im fine but thanks for attepting to hug me.. LOL jk jk.. will see the gem soon. I feel like it has been the most consistent with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Models are waxing and waning a little run to run around here, but something in the 2-4 inch range is looking pretty good barring a late dry air push from the ne. I'll take it. I just want to get some snow back on the ground before winter's peak arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I haven't posted one of these in a while. :wub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 :wub: Take a shot for that!! I took a shot for opposite reasons. Cheers to you my friend. ggem soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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