snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 21z SREFS look encouraging with a deepening H5 low tracking through the OV. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/index_50h_s_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 21z SREFS look encouraging with a deepening H5 low tracking through the OV. http://www.nco.ncep....0h_s_loop.shtml Does it show the potential for decent snows across our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Does it show the potential for decent snows across our area? Yes, but decent is the operative word. There's virtually no chance this thing ends up being a whopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yes, but decent is the operative word. There's virtually no chance this thing ends up being a whopper. along the lines of maybe 2-5'' ?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 along the lines of maybe 2-5'' ?. Sounds reasonable. There's still the chance that a flatter, more progressive solution like the 12z OP GFS/EURO verify, in which case we'd see less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z NAM is a tad more WNW with the sfc low at 66hr compared to the 18z run bringing the northern extent of the descent snow furthern north across northern IL. still worried about dry air though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z NAM looks fairly similar to the 18z imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Big difference imo. I think hoosier cursed me and buckeye, this run sucks from columbus east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 nam is really strong for such weak QPF fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Eh... NAM 00z is pretty identical if not a hair north of 18z and 12z. But it still seems to be having a problem with the long wave trough, becoming too amplified... still preferring the more zonal ECMWF/GFS at this point. We'll see what GFS says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z NAM wetter here, would be a descent event with good ratios but GFS alot drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'll definitely take the 00z NAM for what its showing, would be a solid advisory for many areas. Maybe some borderline warning spots embedded in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 North trend continues. Any more north I might as well throw in the towel for any more than 2" per the nam of course.. see if the gfs sticks with the starved qpf solution for over this way lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Eh... NAM 00z is pretty identical if not a hair north of 18z and 12z. But it still seems to be having a problem with the long wave trough, becoming too amplified... still preferring the more zonal ECMWF/GFS at this point. We'll see what GFS says... The lack of amplification of the ECM/GFS operationals has been interesting, and they are having issues with the breakdown of the -NAO as it turns neutral/positive. They (GFS/ECM ops) have been very slowly becoming more amplified in the northern ridge and the S/W has become fatter and beefier with the 300 hpa jet increasing slowly with each run. That lead S/W is now directing some relatively large values of DPVA into that ridge per latest mesoscale models--they don't seem to be influenced by the -NAO breaking down fast. That said, some of the extreme amplification may not be correct in some of the models, but it is a very iffy scenario and could quite easily become dominated by the circulation over the coast. The GFS/ECM op are huge outliers to their own ensembles and I have a feeling they will change big either this 0Z run or by 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 North trend continues. Any more north I might as well throw in the towel for any more than 2" per the nam of course.. see if the gfs sticks with the starved qpf solution for over this way lol.. Barely moved north if that from the 18z besides all of Ohio is in the .25-.5 area of precip so i'd be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Big difference imo. I think hoosier cursed me and buckeye, this run sucks from columbus east.. lol sorry. Buckeye should have a better memory of the particulars of that day but I think Columbus was supposed to be in the heavy snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 nam pretty consistant with amounts in eastern nebraska and western iowa for any Met in here, looking at the models, would this storm be worth a winter storm warning or advisory in your opinion? I only ask because the nws in Des Moines doesnt look like they fully agree with NWS in Valley/Omaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The lack of amplification of the ECM/GFS operationals has been interesting, and they are having issues with the breakdown of the -NAO as it turns neutral/positive. They (GFS/ECM ops) have been very slowly becoming more amplified in the northern ridge and the S/W has become fatter and beefier with the 300 hpa jet increasing slowly with each run. That lead S/W is now directing some relatively large values of DPVA into that ridge per latest mesoscale models--they don't seem to be influenced by the -NAO breaking down fast. That said, some of the extreme amplification may not be correct in some of the models, but it is a very iffy scenario and could quite easily become dominated by the circulation over the coast. The GFS/ECM op are huge outliers to their own ensembles and I have a feeling they will change big either this 0Z run or by 12Z. You can see the GFS op making slow incremental changes regarding this. Compare yesterday 18Z: To Today 18Z run, same verification time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I may have up the amounts in the Ohio Valley due to high ratio snows. I can see how Detroit and Indy get 6+ of wind blown snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The lack of amplification of the ECM/GFS operationals has been interesting, and they are having issues with the breakdown of the -NAO as it turns neutral/positive. They (GFS/ECM ops) have been very slowly becoming more amplified in the northern ridge and the S/W has become fatter and beefier with the 300 hpa jet increasing slowly with each run. That lead S/W is now directing some relatively large values of DPVA into that ridge per latest mesoscale models--they don't seem to be influenced by the -NAO breaking down fast. That said, some of the extreme amplification may not be correct in some of the models, but it is a very iffy scenario and could quite easily become dominated by the circulation over the coast. The GFS/ECM op are huge outliers to their own ensembles and I have a feeling they will change big either this 0Z run or by 12Z. Good point. Would make a lot of people happy, but yes I see what you're saying... the reason behind the west shift and the southern low just petering out and not quite making it to the coast today. Will be interesting if the Euro catches it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Haven't checked BUFKIT yet for LAF but just eyeballing the thermal structure on the skew-T, it looks like the DGZ is about 200 mb deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Didnt know detroit was in the ohio valley Henry LOL, but point taken. We will see. I forgot that the NAO is weakening which would allow the ohio valley low to come north. Also with the southern low weakening does it look possible that the gulf could open up for busines a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Barely moved north if that from the 18z besides all of Ohio is in the .25-.5 area of precip so i'd be happy with that. look at jcw's post and then tell me the same. from cmh east we get 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The lack of amplification of the ECM/GFS operationals has been interesting, and they are having issues with the breakdown of the -NAO as it turns neutral/positive. They (GFS/ECM ops) have been very slowly becoming more amplified in the northern ridge and the S/W has become fatter and beefier with the 300 hpa jet increasing slowly with each run. That lead S/W is now directing some relatively large values of DPVA into that ridge per latest mesoscale models--they don't seem to be influenced by the -NAO breaking down fast. That said, some of the extreme amplification may not be correct in some of the models, but it is a very iffy scenario and could quite easily become dominated by the circulation over the coast. The GFS/ECM op are huge outliers to their own ensembles and I have a feeling they will change big either this 0Z run or by 12Z. i love your posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the trend has caused this thread to come alive again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the trend has caused this thread to come alive again The trend sucks and needs to stop lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ugh Kentucky going to end up between the two systems and we will end up getting little to nothing. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ugh Kentucky going to end up between the two systems and we will end up getting little to nothing. Wow. Lol welcome to the Doughnut hole... 1-3 " seems fair along the Ohio River, we are the path for the surface low, whatever there is of one that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z nam gives me .23 for a whopping 3.1" LOL CMH is still in the game for 5" good luck. If the reast follow the nam I am going to gracefully bow out. Let me reitterate for snowlover2. I went from 5.5" at 18z on the NAM to 3" I'd say thats a big loss. I dont waste time tracking 2-3" snowfalls lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 OT but wow at almost the entire states of bama, miss, tennessee and georgia covered by watches and warnings. Usually the warnings are a little skinnier down there with most places seeing a mix to rain. Would've never guessed the warnings map would look like that in a strong la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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