dilly84 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 EE rule in effect - take it to the bank this winter, im not taking anything to the bank. every storm this year the gfs has eventually fallen in line with the euro, not happening this time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 EE rule in effect - take it to the bank What is the EE rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 We have a west of the Apps sfc reflection on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Seems to me the GFS took a step towards the NAM and Euro. Game, set, match. EE wins again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18z GFS actually looks better for IN/OH area. It's trying to join the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What is the EE rule? When the NAM(ETA) and EURO agree on a track and such hence EE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What is the EE rule? Euro + ETA (NAM) show the same solution. Always been a benchmark in the past that when those two models have the same solution, normally that solution is golden. FWIW, this is the most confident I have felt all winter concerning accumulating snow. Vertical moisture transport looks favorable, DGZ looks pretty decent, enhanced lift develops across a good chunk of Indiana and Ohio by Tuesday Afternoon. I would say the odds of a pretty widespread band of 2-5 inches across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro + ETA (NAM) show the same solution. Always been a benchmark in the past that when those two models have the same solution, normally that solution is golden. FWIW, this is the most confident I have felt all winter concerning accumulating snow. Vertical moisture transport looks favorable, DGZ looks pretty decent, enhanced lift develops across a good chunk of Indiana and Ohio by Tuesday Afternoon. I would say the odds of a pretty widespread band of 2-5 inches across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are pretty good. Ive had 2" the past 2 days I expect this to be better than that. Aside the Euro today the models have all bumped up qpf. Just wonder how much we'll truely see out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What is the EE rule? There was an axiom over on the old Eastern (probably back to WWBB) that if the Euro and ETA (NAM) agreed, it's a lock. EDIT: Pimp and dilly you beat me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I will say that if we can get in a decent band here on the NW side of the low the ratios will be very high. Lets just hope a transfer happens later rather than earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 There was an axiom over on the old Eastern (probably back to WWBB) that if the Euro and ETA (NAM) agreed, it's a lock. EDIT: Pimp and dilly you beat me. Well now everyone will see it for sure lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What does the 18z DGEX look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 One thing is for certain. I think everyone would enjoy this through the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And I actually meant the 18z ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18z NAM snowfall- Kuchera Method Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18z NAM snowfall- Kuchera Method I dont like seeing that lol. earlier I was north of the heaviest. Now I am south lol. dead set on giving me 2-3" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I will say that if we can get in a decent band here on the NW side of the low the ratios will be very high. Lets just hope a transfer happens later rather than earlier ratios should be around 20 to 1. but we could have virga issues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ratios should be around 20 to 1. but we could have virga issues! Yea that's why I said if. If we weren't on the northern fringe I wouldn't worry but unfortunately. We are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yea that's why I said if. If we weren't on the northern fringe I wouldn't worry but unfortunately. We are The farther northern portions of the precipitation field could have some virga problems at the onset with some dry air noted in the mid layers, but with pretty impressive vertical moisture transport, that shouldn't last long. I'd say a good chunk of Southern Michigan should see at least 1-3 inches with some isolated 4 inch amounts near the Indiana/Michigan border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18z nam would bring a huge ovalish ball of moderate to heavy snow right across 70. that is amazing..please lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm not sure about farther west but for the eastern Midwest/OV, this type of setup reminds me of 12/8/05. Now, before buckeye directs obscenities my way, it probably wouldn't be an exact repeat. Just that there are some general similarities imo. Nice analog...Wall of Snow. That one was fun. I like IND's call of 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LMK is thinking about issuing WSW. I'm confused because this looks to WWA situation. I don't see us getting over 4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atw Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The models continue to go backwards for northeastern Iowa. Each of the last few runs the NAM has taken an inch away from CR. The storm is becoming stronger, but its focus is being shifted southward into Missouri and out of eastern Iowa. I hope I can hang on to a couple inches. The Missouri valley looks to cash in for the first time this winter. Actually Hawkeye... parts of Missouri have already cashed in this winter. I've had approx. 10" of snow this winter. 6" on Christmas eve. Hopefully 5" from this system. By the way I live 40 miles northeast of Columbia Mo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We have a west of the Apps sfc reflection on the GFS. look for that to continue if that upper low continues to come in stronger in the OV. in addition, defintely could see some further amplificaiton with that strong closed low in the OV. eastern lakes from I-90 south look good for several inches and likely accumlating snow as far north as toronto as well if these trends continue at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Where in the world has buckeye been today? Shocked he hasn't chimed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM snowfall- Kuchera Method Nice screw zone in northern Illinois. Guess we had it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm not sure about farther west but for the eastern Midwest/OV, this type of setup reminds me of 12/8/05. Now, before buckeye directs obscenities my way, it probably wouldn't be an exact repeat. Just that there are some general similarities imo. Not a bad system here. That was a epic couple of weeks before the end of winter came on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nice screw zone in northern Illinois. Guess we had it coming. Yep...been seeing a lot of maps with a nice "hole" over N IL/NE IL with this system... 2" with this event, and then rain by the end of the week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nice analog...Wall of Snow. That one was fun. I like IND's call of 2-4". You guys/Buckeye etc look solid with this. Congrats. Up here.. meh. To far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You guys/Buckeye etc look solid with this. Congrats. Up here.. meh. To far north. Yep, Harry, all the energy was drained from your area with that tornado touchdown in Battle Creek this past July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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