The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12z Ukie seems to be a weaker, farther southeast version of the GGEM. Maybe closer to the 12z GFS? http://www.meteo.psu...12z/ukloop.html That looks like it would be a couple vorts and a major winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I do not see a cutter at all. Anything is possible but looking at H5 profiles and with the jet digging in with massive Arctic air intrusions behind that storm I have to say the GGEM is significantly off with that type of scenario. I will explain below what could be more possible. The GFS and Euro is where I will place more emphasis on. As most have said, Euro is deadly with cutters and I cannot see a cutter. The Friday storm will lay the ground work for Mon-Wed of next week. I have to go with the neutral E-W track or suppression. Some oscillation will occur but with the pattern shaping up the way it is, I find it hard to swallow a big cut. To the GGEM solution; I wonder if the GGEM is taking that piece and tries to make it the eventual, new PV. That solution could have some merit but that low would likely occlude and the second wave or piece would come under it and be shoved eastward with Arctic air slamming up against the moisture and causing great over running. I think the GGEM is confused with the weaknesses around so it grabs that low and tries to shove it up to Saskatchewan and fire a new PV with resultant blocking but being 6 to 7 days out, a lot of IFs. If it does happen that way, it might not be bad for a majority of the region. It simply jumps north and occludes and the second piece takes over and cold air slides in front for the central and eastern half of the region. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 euro is a huge outlier with its handling of the PV. strongly reccomend to throw it out. ukie/GFS/GEM compromise advised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBerg Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm gonna hold off on getting too bullish for LAF. If we're talking more generically about a major winter storm in the Midwest, I'm on board with that. I haven't had time to look at things in detail yet, but the GFS has been performing pretty darn well this winter. Whether or not this is going to be a "great" storm depends on where you are located, but from where I'm sitting I'm encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 euro is a huge outlier with its handling of the PV. strongly reccomend to throw it out. ukie/GFS/GEM compromise advised. Strongly agree. I'm not saying suppression isn't possible, it's probably the odds on favorite, but the way in which the EURO leads to suppression looks incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'll ride the best model and anticipate nothing but boring cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 euro is a huge outlier with its handling of the PV. strongly reccomend to throw it out. ukie/GFS/GEM compromise advised. As awesome as it looks in my backyard ( one hell of a LES set up via wnw flow here with a great moisture supply ) i too tend to think it is bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'll ride the best model and anticipate nothing but boring cold. I'll ride a GFS/ECMWF blend and still prepare for nothing but boring cold...with the I-70 crowd getting a decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'll ride the best model and anticipate nothing but boring cold. Euro sort of loses the "best" distinction when you get out to 6 or 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 After actually looking at things, the GGEM hardly shows the cutter you all made it sound like, pretty lame actually with the dry flow killing action further east, like we've seen all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'll ride a GFS/ECMWF blend and still prepare for nothing but boring cold...with the I-70 crowd getting a decent snow event. I am worried about suppression down here..this air mass is insane and leading into events all year we have seen the Block stronger with the PV anomaly over the lakes or East trend stronger in this range. So suppression city doesn't seem that far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'll ride a GFS/ECMWF blend and still prepare for nothing but boring cold...with the I-70 crowd getting a decent snow event. Serious question here...when was the last time we saw a west-east moving system with the heaviest band occurring along I-70 from MO eastward to IN/OH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro sort of loses the "best" distinction when you get out to 6 or 7 days. Meh, none of them give me anything good anyways and a slim shot at 1-4" is hard to get excited about 6-7 days out, they all show serious dry air issues, especially this far northeast, which follows seasonal trends nicely. Final call, potent storm blows it's load over the central plains, gets squashed and starved heading east and makes a half assed attempt to cut up the coast, but fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Euro sort of loses the "best" distinction when you get out to 6 or 7 days. Haven't been impressed with its performance here with a couple of the hybrid clippers back in December. Obviously its 500h verification scores are the best, but it has its flaws with individual storms just like every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Meh, none of them give me anything good anyways and a slim shot at 1-4" is hard to get excited about 6-7 days out, they all show serious dry air issues, especially this far northeast, which follows seasonal trends nicely. Final call, potent storm blows it's load over the central plains, gets squashed and starved heading east and makes a half assed attempt to cut up the coast, but fails. Final call? LOL. I would make this my first guess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GGEM ensembles: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Serious question here...when was the last time we saw a west-east moving system with the heaviest band occurring along I-70 from MO eastward to IN/OH? There was a late Feb 08 event, right? I think I remember one back then, but nothing since. I could be very wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Strongly agree. I'm not saying suppression isn't possible, it's probably the odds on favorite, but the way in which the EURO leads to suppression looks incorrect. Yeah if the solution were to be suppressed some it wouldn't be how the Euro suppresses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Serious question here...when was the last time we saw a west-east moving system with the heaviest band occurring along I-70 from MO eastward to IN/OH? That system on 2/13/07 comes to mind but I think the better amounts were north of I-70 up to I-80. I would have to go back and look at radar and stuff. I think it was forecasted to be a bit further south then what actually occured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah if the solution were to be suppressed some it wouldn't be how the Euro suppresses it. It does look sort of goofy. That is why I like the GFS solution, with an adjustment south given seasonal trends and potential left over blocking (although not as extreme as the Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 That system on 2/13/07 comes to mind but I think the better amounts were north of I-70 up to I-80. I would have to go back and look at radar and stuff. I think it was forecasted to be a bit further south then what actually occured. Yes. I know exactly where the heaviest band was on 2/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yes. I know exactly where the heaviest band was on 2/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yes. I know exactly where the heaviest band was on 2/13. guessing it got you and chicago wx pretty good lol did nicely up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 can you link me to where you got those? forgot where exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 guessing it got you and chicago wx pretty good lol did nicely up here too. 17", good enough for my 2nd biggest storm ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 can you link me to where you got those? forgot where exactly It's the NESIS page, so it's primarily focused on the Northeast. BTW, we got 17" here with that storm. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/nesis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 17", good enough for my 2nd biggest storm ever. It's the NESIS page, so it's primarily focused on the Northeast. BTW, we got 17" here with that storm. http://www.ncdc.noaa...d-ice/nesis.php good to see you two are still in lock step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Serious question here...when was the last time we saw a west-east moving system with the heaviest band occurring along I-70 from MO eastward to IN/OH? Jan 10-11th, 2011 Some KEY differences on the GFS/Euro runs at hour 144: The GFS has a broad, digging trough out west with a ridge popping and an axis centered near Ohio. The EURO on the other hand looks similar with the western trough although not closed and perhaps a tad weaker. HOWEVER it has an upper closed low centered over Michigan. So it's there on the Euro and not there on the GFS. Hmmmmm...Something has to give there. That may be a big key to whether we see a suppressed solution or an OV/western Apps track. As of right now, I would lean away from the Euro but it's too early to completely throw anything out IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 good to see you two are still in lock step. We're actually the same person, just two different usernames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2008/us0212.php#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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