MoeWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yep. I give baro credit for having the sack to post over in those model threads and tell it like he thinks it is....even when it's ugly for an eastcoast threat...lol Them folk don't take kindly to being told by some college-learned weatherman not from their parts. I laughed out loud reading this! Haha I totally enjoy reading Baroclinic's post. Very informative - can learn a thing or two. Nice job keep it up ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 FWIW 15Z sref mean has 1013 L near st louis at hr 87...nice hit for nw mo, e ne, most of ia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 FWIW 15Z sref mean has 1013 L near st louis at hr 87...nice hit for nw mo, e ne, most of ia Here are the individual members. H5 is not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 FWIW 15Z sref mean has 1013 L near st louis at hr 87...nice hit for nw mo, e ne, most of ia Northern IL looks good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well I am happy to say I busted my own BY forecast, I didn't think we would get squat. The mesoscale models are really suggesting a decent inverted trough and much stronger DPVA into the ridge with the northern stream even as the secondary jet dives into the central plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 15z sref had .25 in STL and still snowing..Id take my chances with a stronger vort. Feels so slow..maybe the storm will come in 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I guess DTX is picking up a little on the system... DTX .BASED ON THE 12Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN/UKMET...UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXISWILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY/TUESDAYNIGHT...SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here are the individual members. H5 is not out yet. wow, that almost looks ggem-esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM/SREF trying to pull a coup. If you extrapolate them in time, the ridge axis and the northern extent of the secondary wave would send a large amount of DPVA into the ridge and would have a far more impressive surface inverted trough well into the OV including Indiana and perhaps Chicago. No globals have this type of scenario verbatim. GGEM is wet for the wrong reason. The bus may not crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM/SREF trying to pull a coup. If you extrapolate them in time, the ridge axis and the northern extent of the secondary wave would send a large amount of DPVA into the ridge and would have a far more impressive surface inverted trough well into the OV including Indiana and perhaps Chicago. No globals have this type of scenario verbatim. GGEM is wet for the wrong reason. The bus may not crash. The bus crashed here and caught on fire and melted. By 84, it's stacking all the lows to my north... geebus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z NAM extrapolated is weakening..but would def hit my area with 4-6 inches. If this can stay strong longer who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We will have to wait still and see if the globals have such an amped ridge axis ahead of the secondary trough. The amplitude of the mesoscale models is amazing--and quite honestly I am not 100% sure why they are so much more amped even as the southern wave disrupts the thermal/moisture field. NAM is amazingly moist considering. There is hope though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The bus crashed here and caught on fire and melted. By 84, it's stacking all the lows to my north... geebus. Are you in Joplin area too? Close call for you folks. I still think even with that you will see some snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Are you in Joplin area too? Close call for you folks. I still think even with that you will see some snow though. yep, and it's looking less likely unless there is a shift back south. When these things start trending more and more north each run, they usually don't come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If only that dang southern stream system wasn't there to sweep away the gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If only that dang southern stream system wasn't there to sweep away the gulf moisture. Preach on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We will have to wait still and see if the globals have such an amped ridge axis ahead of the secondary trough. The amplitude of the mesoscale models is amazing--and quite honestly I am not 100% sure why they are so much more amped even as the southern wave disrupts the thermal/moisture field. NAM is amazingly moist considering. There is hope though. Looks like it could be decent for OH people. But it is definitely weakening. Going to depend on how much juice it has left once it reaches us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Still 50% chance for tulsa ill take anything...a flake for petes sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well the euro ensembles are slowly trending towards a western low. Still a decent hit for i95 as well. Freebie for today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looking thru all the frames of the 18z NAM, I do not see it weakening. What am I missing here. It also looks like that southern low is pretty far east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 thanks Harry, still not great amounts, but ill take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looking thru all the frames of the 18z NAM, I do not see it weakening. What am I missing here. It also looks like that southern low is pretty far east as well. You have a much better shot being in IL, But once you get into Eastern IN, in through OH, is where we have to worry. I do think what the NAM shows helps us all. Seems like the southern Low is well east of the northern stream, and I would think it would allow for better development of the Northern stream, which could up the qpf for us. But hell what do I know, BARO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'll say this. IF ( I do say "IF" ) we can slow down that southern/se energy some and have it round the corner a little quicker ( plenty of time for models to adjust to that too ) we could have something to really talk about on this side of the apps. Chances are probably very slim but are there. See what Baro thinks. BTW Baro look at the 500mb maps etc. You will see why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 In case anybody's wondering what the NAM would look like beyond 84 hours: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 In case anybody's wondering what the NAM would look like beyond 84 hours: http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html Remember the DGEX is not straight NAM extrapolated in time but is initialized with the GFS and part of the NAM run as well to initialize the model. What you are seeing is not straight 18Z NAM extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You have a much better shot being in IL, But once you get into Eastern IN, in through OH, is where we have to worry. I do think what the NAM shows helps us all. Seems like the southern Low is well east of the northern stream, and I would think it would allow for better development of the Northern stream, which could up the qpf for us. But hell what do I know, BARO? I'll say this. IF ( I do say "IF" ) we can slow down that southern/se energy some and have it round the corner a little quicker ( plenty of time for models to adjust to that too ) we could have something to really talk about on this side of the apps. Chances are probably very slim but are there. See what Baro thinks. BTW Baro look at the 500mb maps etc. You will see why. 18Z GFS through 54 has a higher amplitude northern ridge so it will likely be a tad stronger this run with the inverted trough through the OV and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS is still weaker....gonna take another 2 days to give us anymore details. we need the nam to get even stronger or at least stick to its guns tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18Z GFS through 54 has a higher amplitude northern ridge so it will likely be a tad stronger this run with the inverted trough through the OV and north. GFS stays flat even with an amped ridge. GFS/ECM op runs are outliers amongst their own ensembles and the mesoscale models. Given such a ridge in place, it does seem likely that both DPVA and weak mesoscale jet divergence (shorter wavelength in a more amplified wave) will enhance vertical ascent and support a more impressive inverted trough than the GFS develops. Mesoscale models--on the other hand--seem a bit too bullish on qpf values given the lack of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS stays flat even with an amped ridge. GFS/ECM op runs are outliers amongst their own ensembles and the mesoscale models. Given such a ridge in place, it does seem likely that both DPVA and weak mesoscale jet divergence (shorter wavelength in a more amplified wave) will enhance vertical ascent and support a more impressive inverted trough than the GFS develops. Mesoscale models--on the other hand--seem a bit too bullish on qpf values given the lack of moisture. It does sort of have that feature but it isn't nearly as strong as the NAM has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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