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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects


Madmaxweather

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yep. I give baro credit for having the sack to post over in those model threads and tell it like he thinks it is....even when it's ugly for an eastcoast threat...lol Them folk don't take kindly to being told by some college-learned weatherman not from their parts.

I laughed out loud reading this! Haha I totally enjoy reading Baroclinic's post. Very informative - can learn a thing or two. Nice job keep it up !

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NAM/SREF trying to pull a coup. If you extrapolate them in time, the ridge axis and the northern extent of the secondary wave would send a large amount of DPVA into the ridge and would have a far more impressive surface inverted trough well into the OV including Indiana and perhaps Chicago. No globals have this type of scenario verbatim. GGEM is wet for the wrong reason. The bus may not crash.

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NAM/SREF trying to pull a coup. If you extrapolate them in time, the ridge axis and the northern extent of the secondary wave would send a large amount of DPVA into the ridge and would have a far more impressive surface inverted trough well into the OV including Indiana and perhaps Chicago. No globals have this type of scenario verbatim. GGEM is wet for the wrong reason. The bus may not crash.

The bus crashed here and caught on fire and melted.

By 84, it's stacking all the lows to my north... geebus.

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We will have to wait still and see if the globals have such an amped ridge axis ahead of the secondary trough. The amplitude of the mesoscale models is amazing--and quite honestly I am not 100% sure why they are so much more amped even as the southern wave disrupts the thermal/moisture field. NAM is amazingly moist considering. There is hope though.

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Are you in Joplin area too? Close call for you folks. I still think even with that you will see some snow though.

yep, and it's looking less likely unless there is a shift back south. When these things start trending more and more north each run, they usually don't come back.

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We will have to wait still and see if the globals have such an amped ridge axis ahead of the secondary trough. The amplitude of the mesoscale models is amazing--and quite honestly I am not 100% sure why they are so much more amped even as the southern wave disrupts the thermal/moisture field. NAM is amazingly moist considering. There is hope though.

Looks like it could be decent for OH people. But it is definitely weakening. Going to depend on how much juice it has left once it reaches us.

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Looking thru all the frames of the 18z NAM, I do not see it weakening. What am I missing here. It also looks like that southern low is pretty far east as well.

You have a much better shot being in IL, But once you get into Eastern IN, in through OH, is where we have to worry. I do think what the NAM shows helps us all. Seems like the southern Low is well east of the northern stream, and I would think it would allow for better development of the Northern stream, which could up the qpf for us. But hell what do I know, BARO?

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I'll say this.

IF ( I do say "IF" ) we can slow down that southern/se energy some and have it round the corner a little quicker ( plenty of time for models to adjust to that too ) we could have something to really talk about on this side of the apps. Chances are probably very slim but are there. See what Baro thinks. BTW Baro look at the 500mb maps etc. You will see why.

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In case anybody's wondering what the NAM would look like beyond 84 hours:

http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html

Remember the DGEX is not straight NAM extrapolated in time but is initialized with the GFS and part of the NAM run as well to initialize the model. What you are seeing is not straight 18Z NAM extended.

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You have a much better shot being in IL, But once you get into Eastern IN, in through OH, is where we have to worry. I do think what the NAM shows helps us all. Seems like the southern Low is well east of the northern stream, and I would think it would allow for better development of the Northern stream, which could up the qpf for us. But hell what do I know, BARO?

I'll say this.

IF ( I do say "IF" ) we can slow down that southern/se energy some and have it round the corner a little quicker ( plenty of time for models to adjust to that too ) we could have something to really talk about on this side of the apps. Chances are probably very slim but are there. See what Baro thinks. BTW Baro look at the 500mb maps etc. You will see why.

18Z GFS through 54 has a higher amplitude northern ridge so it will likely be a tad stronger this run with the inverted trough through the OV and north.

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18Z GFS through 54 has a higher amplitude northern ridge so it will likely be a tad stronger this run with the inverted trough through the OV and north.

GFS stays flat even with an amped ridge. GFS/ECM op runs are outliers amongst their own ensembles and the mesoscale models. Given such a ridge in place, it does seem likely that both DPVA and weak mesoscale jet divergence (shorter wavelength in a more amplified wave) will enhance vertical ascent and support a more impressive inverted trough than the GFS develops. Mesoscale models--on the other hand--seem a bit too bullish on qpf values given the lack of moisture.

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GFS stays flat even with an amped ridge. GFS/ECM op runs are outliers amongst their own ensembles and the mesoscale models. Given such a ridge in place, it does seem likely that both DPVA and weak mesoscale jet divergence (shorter wavelength in a more amplified wave) will enhance vertical ascent and support a more impressive inverted trough than the GFS develops. Mesoscale models--on the other hand--seem a bit too bullish on qpf values given the lack of moisture.

It does sort of have that feature but it isn't nearly as strong as the NAM has it.

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