michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Trends are ok, most gfs ensembles give us several inches, as does GEM. However, we have a potentially snowy day and night setting up (not sure how you did yesterday), so first things first for example, on the 72-hour qpf of the 6z GFS run...every ensemble has SE MI in 0.10+ qpf for the storm, many more than that. Only the OP has under 0.10", and 7 of the 11 ensembles have DTW in 0.25"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Everyone is in the OV is getting excited over a nuisance snow. pppfffttttt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 kinda glad I didn't stay up for the euro.....still not playing ball Hell bent on flattening out the trough as it moves east.. Anyone have a ukie link, mine seemed to skip the 00z run for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 for example, on the 72-hour qpf of the 6z GFS run...every ensemble has SE MI in 0.10+ qpf for the storm, many more than that. Only the OP has under 0.10", and 7 of the 11 ensembles have DTW in 0.25"+ Got about 1.75", which is not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Everyone is in the OV is getting excited over a nuisance snow. pppfffttttt.... Just tells how desperate we all are LOL..same up here I got excited over a snow shower that move through my region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Everyone is in the OV is getting excited over a nuisance snow. pppfffttttt.... Just curious, what is your definition of a nuisance snow? I ask because I think this will be an advisory event for the Ohio Valley, and possibly into the southern Great Lakes (probably a warning event somewhere in the Plains). Maybe you think this will be an inch or two type event and you may very well be right. I tend to consider this a "nuisance snow". It interests me because expectations are a little ridiculous around here. How many warning events do we get a year? At FWA it is 1-2 per year and I'm sure it averages out to around 1 closer to the Ohio River. So, to me, a possible advisory amount is worth getting excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 kinda glad I didn't stay up for the euro.....still not playing ball Hell bent on flattening out the trough as it moves east.. Anyone have a ukie link, mine seemed to skip the 00z run for some reason ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ukie thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Everyone is in the OV is getting excited over a nuisance snow. pppfffttttt.... Snow, in whatever form or amount, is still snow. But to each his own. Just curious, what is your definition of a nuisance snow? I ask because I think this will be an advisory event for the Ohio Valley, and possibly into the southern Great Lakes (probably a warning event somewhere in the Plains). Maybe you think this will be an inch or two type event and you may very well be right. I tend to consider this a "nuisance snow". It interests me because expectations are a little ridiculous around here. How many warning events do we get a year? At FWA it is 1-2 per year and I'm sure it averages out to around 1 closer to the Ohio River. So, to me, a possible advisory amount is worth getting excited about. This. 6"+ snowstorms for central Indiana are not exactly common place every winter. Sure everyone hopes for a big storm, but reality is 2-4", 3-5" type events should be considered pretty damn good. Climo...climo...climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just curious, what is your definition of a nuisance snow? I ask because I think this will be an advisory event for the Ohio Valley, and possibly into the southern Great Lakes (probably a warning event somewhere in the Plains). Maybe you think this will be an inch or two type event and you may very well be right. I tend to consider this a "nuisance snow". It interests me because expectations are a little ridiculous around here. How many warning events do we get a year? At FWA it is 1-2 per year and I'm sure it averages out to around 1 closer to the Ohio River. So, to me, a possible advisory amount is worth getting excited about. I can't respond for Kokomo, but I'm trying to not get hyped up too much. Yeah, we may get a little snow, but I'm thinking odds of an advisory snow are small for our area right now. It's looking better for those in the OV though. I've had too many swings and misses this year to get excited. When you're talking about nuisance snows, yesterday was a good example. We received 0.3"-0.5" down here and had several slide-offs and wrecks, especially on I-69. As a member of Emergency Management, it was more than a nuisance, it was a pain in the ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 kinda early to say but thru 54 hrs the 12z nam appears to be going in the wrong direction. stronger sw.....pv hanging on longer in ne......thus less ridging out ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I can't respond for Kokomo, but I'm trying to not get hyped up too much. Yeah, we may get a little snow, but I'm thinking odds of an advisory snow are small for our area right now. It's looking better for those in the OV though. I've had too many swings and misses this year to get excited. When you're talking about nuisance snows, yesterday was a good example. We received 0.3"-0.5" down here and had several slide-offs and wrecks, especially on I-69. As a member of Emergency Management, it was more than a nuisance, it was a pain in the ...... I was talking about the Ohio Valley for advisory snows. The probability for an advisory event in our area is very low, but not impossible if we can get that mid level wave to close off farther north placing us within that deformation zone. However, hard to go against the seasonal trend and negative AO suppression. And those half inch snows do create plenty of accidents. I wish people knew how to drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just curious, what is your definition of a nuisance snow? I ask because I think this will be an advisory event for the Ohio Valley, and possibly into the southern Great Lakes (probably a warning event somewhere in the Plains). Maybe you think this will be an inch or two type event and you may very well be right. I tend to consider this a "nuisance snow". It interests me because expectations are a little ridiculous around here. How many warning events do we get a year? At FWA it is 1-2 per year and I'm sure it averages out to around 1 closer to the Ohio River. So, to me, a possible advisory amount is worth getting excited about. This. 6"+ snowstorms for central Indiana are not exactly common place every winter. Sure everyone hopes for a big storm, but reality is 2-4", 3-5" type events should be considered pretty damn good. Climo...climo...climo. I just have not seen anything convincing that there will be more than an inch or two across the OV. (Better south) (I would debate this more and offer more detail but work has me way to busy/angry today too even think straight.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 kinda early to say but thru 54 hrs the 12z nam appears to be going in the wrong direction. stronger sw.....pv hanging on longer in ne......thus less ridging out ahead The mesoscale models continue to increase the ridge ahead of the western trough even with the way the southern wave negatively influences GOM moisture and thermal advection. This is good for you. Note the large inverted trough in the surface field. This is a result of an increased magnitude of DPVA (differential positive vorticity advection) and will result in weak but persistent vertical ascent. This is also the same reflection seen in the means of the GEFS. 12Z NAM looks good for all those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The mesoscale models continue to increase the ridge ahead of the western trough even with the way the southern wave negatively influences GOM moisture and thermal advection. This is good for you. Note the large inverted trough in the surface field. This is a result of an increased magnitude of DPVA (differential positive vorticity advection) and will result in weak but persistent vertical ascent. This is also the same reflection seen in the means of the GEFS. 12Z NAM looks good for all those. i was gonna say...it actually looks a little better at 500 in the later panels.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Good luck to those in play for snow, if you need me, i'll be tracking 200+ hr fantasy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here is my simplistic explanation, but easy to understand. The southern wave and its associated surface low (green line). Note the circled area--the GOM is closed for business, and this both weakens the baroclinic zone ahead of the incoming western trough, but very importantly for development of the secondary trough ejecting into the plains, it cuts the moisture feed off and the storm can't amplify and intensify nearly as fast. Also look at all that convection...there will be a lot of precipitation/thunderstorms with that system unless it tracks elsewhere. Why does the GOM being closed off matter? Warm air advection. The height rises are dynamically induced via low level WAA. Heights aloft are the result, and as most now know, that is why mets talk about height rises ahead of a trough so much. This storm overall is actually being suppressed by that pathetic, weak looking migratory wave. It is a terrific example of how tiny errors can have massive impacts in time. great explanation thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I just have not seen anything convincing that there will be more than an inch or two across the OV. (Better south) (I would debate this more and offer more detail but work has me way to busy/angry today too even think straight.) Well for us, I'd be shocked if we see anything more than 1-2". I think down by the river and then up through OH has a better chance at "higher" amounts. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z GFS is the lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12Z GFS at 162 is about to explode into the plains with the Arctic Front. My hype level is getting out of control again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12Z GFS at 162 is about to explode into the plains with the Arctic Front. My hype level is getting out of control again. i'd call it more of a sizzle and poof of smoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i'd call it more of a sizzle and poof of smoke Probably for down there. Northern Plains though..arctic fronts are amazing events when they plow through with that intensity. Blizzard for 3-5 hours followed by insanity temperature drops and continued strong winds. They are fun events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Probably for down there. Northern Plains though..arctic fronts are amazing events when they plow through with that intensity. Blizzard for 3-5 hours followed by insanity temperature drops and continued strong winds. They are fun events. oh, I read that wrong. I thought you thought there would be a storm exploding. But you meant the actual Arctic front. Yeah that looks impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 oh, I read that wrong. I thought you thought there would be a storm exploding. But you meant the actual Arctic front. Yeah that looks impressive. In that configuration no explosion...would need a deeper baroclinic wave. That low amplitude limits deep cyclogenesis potential but can still be intense. We will see ECM had potential..CMC did too but the CMC is junk so I don't bother with it much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've got white towel in hand for anything more than 3" just awaiting the euro to throw it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I feel really good looking at my snow chances next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 just give okla. some snow please somethin!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 EURO is out to hour 72. LT-MOD precip in E. NB/N. KS/SE SD. LOW in the south is a sub 1012 mb low in the very northern part of the gulf. LT precip over MN/IA/MIZ/S. IL with TN getting hit good with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I feel really good looking at my snow chances next week. I might need to pull out the screw hole graphic from last year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 EURO is out to hour 72. LT-MOD precip in E. NB/N. KS/SE SD. LOW in the south is a sub 1012 mb low in the very northern part of the gulf. LT precip over MN/IA/MIZ/S. IL with TN getting hit good with snow. Go on...... Looks like my area probably gets screwed with the northerly trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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