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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects


Madmaxweather

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Trends are ok, most gfs ensembles give us several inches, as does GEM. However, we have a potentially snowy day and night setting up (not sure how you did yesterday), so first things first :)

for example, on the 72-hour qpf of the 6z GFS run...every ensemble has SE MI in 0.10+ qpf for the storm, many more than that. Only the OP has under 0.10", and 7 of the 11 ensembles have DTW in 0.25"+

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Everyone is in the OV is getting excited over a nuisance snow. pppfffttttt.... :thumbsdown:

Just curious, what is your definition of a nuisance snow? I ask because I think this will be an advisory event for the Ohio Valley, and possibly into the southern Great Lakes (probably a warning event somewhere in the Plains). Maybe you think this will be an inch or two type event and you may very well be right. I tend to consider this a "nuisance snow".

It interests me because expectations are a little ridiculous around here. How many warning events do we get a year? At FWA it is 1-2 per year and I'm sure it averages out to around 1 closer to the Ohio River. So, to me, a possible advisory amount is worth getting excited about.

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Everyone is in the OV is getting excited over a nuisance snow. pppfffttttt.... :thumbsdown:

Snow, in whatever form or amount, is still snow. But to each his own.

Just curious, what is your definition of a nuisance snow? I ask because I think this will be an advisory event for the Ohio Valley, and possibly into the southern Great Lakes (probably a warning event somewhere in the Plains). Maybe you think this will be an inch or two type event and you may very well be right. I tend to consider this a "nuisance snow".

It interests me because expectations are a little ridiculous around here. How many warning events do we get a year? At FWA it is 1-2 per year and I'm sure it averages out to around 1 closer to the Ohio River. So, to me, a possible advisory amount is worth getting excited about.

This. 6"+ snowstorms for central Indiana are not exactly common place every winter. Sure everyone hopes for a big storm, but reality is 2-4", 3-5" type events should be considered pretty damn good. Climo...climo...climo.

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Just curious, what is your definition of a nuisance snow? I ask because I think this will be an advisory event for the Ohio Valley, and possibly into the southern Great Lakes (probably a warning event somewhere in the Plains). Maybe you think this will be an inch or two type event and you may very well be right. I tend to consider this a "nuisance snow".

It interests me because expectations are a little ridiculous around here. How many warning events do we get a year? At FWA it is 1-2 per year and I'm sure it averages out to around 1 closer to the Ohio River. So, to me, a possible advisory amount is worth getting excited about.

I can't respond for Kokomo, but I'm trying to not get hyped up too much. Yeah, we may get a little snow, but I'm thinking odds of an advisory snow are small for our area right now. It's looking better for those in the OV though.

I've had too many swings and misses this year to get excited.

When you're talking about nuisance snows, yesterday was a good example. We received 0.3"-0.5" down here and had several slide-offs and wrecks, especially on I-69. As a member of Emergency Management, it was more than a nuisance, it was a pain in the ......

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I can't respond for Kokomo, but I'm trying to not get hyped up too much. Yeah, we may get a little snow, but I'm thinking odds of an advisory snow are small for our area right now. It's looking better for those in the OV though.

I've had too many swings and misses this year to get excited.

When you're talking about nuisance snows, yesterday was a good example. We received 0.3"-0.5" down here and had several slide-offs and wrecks, especially on I-69. As a member of Emergency Management, it was more than a nuisance, it was a pain in the ......

I was talking about the Ohio Valley for advisory snows. The probability for an advisory event in our area is very low, but not impossible if we can get that mid level wave to close off farther north placing us within that deformation zone. However, hard to go against the seasonal trend and negative AO suppression.

And those half inch snows do create plenty of accidents. I wish people knew how to drive.

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Just curious, what is your definition of a nuisance snow? I ask because I think this will be an advisory event for the Ohio Valley, and possibly into the southern Great Lakes (probably a warning event somewhere in the Plains). Maybe you think this will be an inch or two type event and you may very well be right. I tend to consider this a "nuisance snow".

It interests me because expectations are a little ridiculous around here. How many warning events do we get a year? At FWA it is 1-2 per year and I'm sure it averages out to around 1 closer to the Ohio River. So, to me, a possible advisory amount is worth getting excited about.

This. 6"+ snowstorms for central Indiana are not exactly common place every winter. Sure everyone hopes for a big storm, but reality is 2-4", 3-5" type events should be considered pretty damn good. Climo...climo...climo.

I just have not seen anything convincing that there will be more than an inch or two across the OV. (Better south)

(I would debate this more and offer more detail but work has me way to busy/angry today too even think straight.)

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kinda early to say but thru 54 hrs the 12z nam appears to be going in the wrong direction. stronger sw.....pv hanging on longer in ne......thus less ridging out ahead

The mesoscale models continue to increase the ridge ahead of the western trough even with the way the southern wave negatively influences GOM moisture and thermal advection. This is good for you. Note the large inverted trough in the surface field. This is a result of an increased magnitude of DPVA (differential positive vorticity advection) and will result in weak but persistent vertical ascent. This is also the same reflection seen in the means of the GEFS. 12Z NAM looks good for all those.

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The mesoscale models continue to increase the ridge ahead of the western trough even with the way the southern wave negatively influences GOM moisture and thermal advection. This is good for you. Note the large inverted trough in the surface field. This is a result of an increased magnitude of DPVA (differential positive vorticity advection) and will result in weak but persistent vertical ascent. This is also the same reflection seen in the means of the GEFS. 12Z NAM looks good for all those.

i was gonna say...it actually looks a little better at 500 in the later panels....

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Here is my simplistic explanation, but easy to understand.

The southern wave and its associated surface low (green line). Note the circled area--the GOM is closed for business, and this both weakens the baroclinic zone ahead of the incoming western trough, but very importantly for development of the secondary trough ejecting into the plains, it cuts the moisture feed off and the storm can't amplify and intensify nearly as fast. Also look at all that convection...there will be a lot of precipitation/thunderstorms with that system unless it tracks elsewhere.

Why does the GOM being closed off matter? Warm air advection. The height rises are dynamically induced via low level WAA. Heights aloft are the result, and as most now know, that is why mets talk about height rises ahead of a trough so much. This storm overall is actually being suppressed by that pathetic, weak looking migratory wave. It is a terrific example of how tiny errors can have massive impacts in time.

post-999-0-73930000-1294367194.png

great explanation thanks!

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I just have not seen anything convincing that there will be more than an inch or two across the OV. (Better south)

(I would debate this more and offer more detail but work has me way to busy/angry today too even think straight.)

Well for us, I'd be shocked if we see anything more than 1-2". I think down by the river and then up through OH has a better chance at "higher" amounts. We'll see.

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Probably for down there. Northern Plains though..arctic fronts are amazing events when they plow through with that intensity. Blizzard for 3-5 hours followed by insanity temperature drops and continued strong winds. They are fun events.

oh, I read that wrong. I thought you thought there would be a storm exploding. But you meant the actual Arctic front. Yeah that looks impressive.

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oh, I read that wrong. I thought you thought there would be a storm exploding. But you meant the actual Arctic front. Yeah that looks impressive.

In that configuration no explosion...would need a deeper baroclinic wave. That low amplitude limits deep cyclogenesis potential but can still be intense. We will see ECM had potential..CMC did too but the CMC is junk so I don't bother with it much.

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EURO is out to hour 72.

LT-MOD precip in E. NB/N. KS/SE SD.

LOW in the south is a sub 1012 mb low in the very northern part of the gulf.

LT precip over MN/IA/MIZ/S. IL with TN getting hit good with snow.

Go on......

Looks like my area probably gets screwed with the northerly trend.

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