Stebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The GGEM nails MN, lol. It has been having issues with this storm threat. Looks like it has a very dominant northern stream wave. It has been consistent with a very dominant northern wave though, so its hard to immediately toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The GGEM has done this earlier and keeps flip flopping, but it tries to take the southern wave and eject the entire thing NE as a warm front with strong height ridging as a result. I don't find it a likely scenario. Only way that could happen is through less precipitation, but even the GGEM dumps mass amounts of qpf out over the southern states which would weaken that wave quickly. 12Z CMC is more realistic in its depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It actually went S, but the lack of a coastal is helping you guys since the low level circulation with a coastal isn't taking over the weaker circulation inland. dont look much more impressive than the 12z or 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It has been consistent with a very dominant northern wave though, so its hard to immediately toss it. Well I wouldn't consider it in a forecasting scenario mainly because the GGEM stinks at handling both weak low amplitude migratory waves/phasing/kicking out as well as the breakdown of large scale troughs into low amplitude waves. If it had some support I would give it more credence. Wish-cast wise I hope it is right since it sets up a huge inverted trough over MN, but I am not biting on it right now just to get let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Considering the southern wave that ejects out ahead of the main system is still NOT onshore yet and KNOWING how models typically handle such features at this time range i personally don't think it is wise to hop on a east/se threat. ANYONE who has followed such systems in the past will know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 00Z GEFS shows more of a low up OH influence in its mean scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 dont look much more impressive than the 12z or 18z? Looks a tad more impressive as the western trough has slowed down a little bit and become farther displaced from that southern garbage wave. GFS throws in a tad more WAA and a more amplified upper ridge and a slightly stronger mid level (700 hpa) circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 00Z GEFS shows more of a low up OH influence in its mean scenario. post it, ewall site still says old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherTree Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What is wrong with the GFS? I know something is screwy with it but it does give Ohio folks close to .25 QPF with 20 to 1 ratios 3-5 inches.. LOL I'll take that to the bank the way things have gone this winter. LOL Yeah I like the looks of that broad upper low and a quick secondary surface reflection somewhere in eastern TN or SE KY Tuesday. Euro is there, but light on qpf at this point. I would really like to see it bump north and increase the qpf on tonights run to feel more confident. There is a ton of model support otherwise for this feature and a decent Atlantic moisture fetch to consider as well. Our northern friend has blown up the feature tonight with around 9mm at KCVG which is equivalent to .35" qpf at 15:1 landing around 5.25" Perhaps some banding for higher amounts and lower amounts so a general 4-6" as i have been forecasting for the last 24hrs or so. I think i will continue this forward and monitor the trends with the Euro since it has been pretty phenomenal since the beginning of Met Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'd watch for some potential lake enhancement in/around northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah I like the looks of that broad upper low and a quick secondary surface reflection somewhere in eastern TN or SE KY Tuesday. Euro is there, but light on qpf at this point. I would really like to see it bump north and increase the qpf on tonights run to feel more confident. There is a ton of model support otherwise for this feature and a decent Atlantic moisture fetch to consider as well. Our northern friend has blown up the feature tonight with around 9mm at KCVG which is equivalent to .35" qpf at 15:1 landing around 5.25" Perhaps some banding for higher amounts and lower amounts so a general 4-6" as i have been forecasting for the last 24hrs or so. I think i will continue this forward and monitor the trends with the Euro since it has been pretty phenomenal since the beginning of Met Winter. according to bufkit CVG 3" CMH a whopping 2" CLE 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherTree Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 according to bufkit CVG 3" CMH a whopping 2" CLE 2-3" That is the bufkit for the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Considering the southern wave that ejects out ahead of the main system is still NOT onshore yet and KNOWING how models typically handle such features at this time range i personally don't think it is wise to hop on a east/se threat. ANYONE who has followed such systems in the past will know this. LC agrees with your thoughts...a little what he mentioned tonight. A large upper level storm and broad subtropical jet stream off of the Pacific shoreline of the U.S. and Mexico is on the move. The problem is, none of the computer models have a good handle on this feature due to a lack of data. This situation may make for a rather bad forecast as this feature moves eastward and interacts with disturbances in the polar and Arctic jet stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Is the Euro running yet? I think it is but I'm not positive as I don't follow the Euro as closely as the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 EURO has the N. Stream system more north then 12z. Lt-Mod. precip in W.Mn at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 EURO has the N. Stream system more north then 12z. Lt-Mod. precip in W.Mn at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well, the block shuts the precip down in MN. Extreme W. MN does get some precip, but NE is getting hit decent at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Heights are higher over the Central states through 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That is the bufkit for the Canadian? no. you didnt say canadian in your post, I thought you were speaking of the GFS. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Heights are higher over the Central states through 84hrs. Inverted trough feature is a bit more impressive over the Plains by 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hr 96 Northern stream continues to dig more compared to 12z . Catching up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 almost saturated at 850mb to STL at 96 hours..must have precip moving east towards that are then, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Widespread light precip across the OV up into the MW by 108hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I kmow the JMA is garbage, but does anyone have a link to that model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 wait for chicago for hours past 96. at 108 it is of the SC coast, but not sure what it is doing for our location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherTree Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 no. you didnt say canadian in your post, I thought you were speaking of the GFS. My bad. I mentioned northern friends in my post referring to the GEM, sorry for the confusion though. Pro text data from GFS printed .26 for CVG and based on my analysis I figured this to be around 4" so not too far off bufkit 3". That's neither here nor there, sounds like the Euro could be coming north a bit with the northern stream s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I mentioned northern friends in my post referring to the GEM, sorry for the confusion though. Pro text data from GFS printed .26 for CVG and based on my analysis I figured this to be around 4" so not too far off bufkit 3". That's neither here nor there, sounds like the Euro could be coming north a bit with the northern stream s/w. Yea, and sounds like the EC is going to get hammered again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.