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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects


Madmaxweather

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The GGEM has done this earlier and keeps flip flopping, but it tries to take the southern wave and eject the entire thing NE as a warm front with strong height ridging as a result. I don't find it a likely scenario. Only way that could happen is through less precipitation, but even the GGEM dumps mass amounts of qpf out over the southern states which would weaken that wave quickly. 12Z CMC is more realistic in its depiction.

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It has been consistent with a very dominant northern wave though, so its hard to immediately toss it.

Well I wouldn't consider it in a forecasting scenario mainly because the GGEM stinks at handling both weak low amplitude migratory waves/phasing/kicking out as well as the breakdown of large scale troughs into low amplitude waves. If it had some support I would give it more credence. Wish-cast wise I hope it is right since it sets up a huge inverted trough over MN, but I am not biting on it right now just to get let down.

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Considering the southern wave that ejects out ahead of the main system is still NOT onshore yet and KNOWING how models typically handle such features at this time range i personally don't think it is wise to hop on a east/se threat. ANYONE who has followed such systems in the past will know this.

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dont look much more impressive than the 12z or 18z?

Looks a tad more impressive as the western trough has slowed down a little bit and become farther displaced from that southern garbage wave. GFS throws in a tad more WAA and a more amplified upper ridge and a slightly stronger mid level (700 hpa) circulation.

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What is wrong with the GFS? I know something is screwy with it but it does give Ohio folks close to .25 QPF with 20 to 1 ratios 3-5 inches.. LOL I'll take that to the bank the way things have gone this winter. LOL

Yeah I like the looks of that broad upper low and a quick secondary surface reflection somewhere in eastern TN or SE KY Tuesday. Euro is there, but light on qpf at this point. I would really like to see it bump north and increase the qpf on tonights run to feel more confident. There is a ton of model support otherwise for this feature and a decent Atlantic moisture fetch to consider as well. Our northern friend has blown up the feature tonight with around 9mm at KCVG which is equivalent to .35" qpf at 15:1 landing around 5.25" Perhaps some banding for higher amounts and lower amounts so a general 4-6" as i have been forecasting for the last 24hrs or so. I think i will continue this forward and monitor the trends with the Euro since it has been pretty phenomenal since the beginning of Met Winter.

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Yeah I like the looks of that broad upper low and a quick secondary surface reflection somewhere in eastern TN or SE KY Tuesday. Euro is there, but light on qpf at this point. I would really like to see it bump north and increase the qpf on tonights run to feel more confident. There is a ton of model support otherwise for this feature and a decent Atlantic moisture fetch to consider as well. Our northern friend has blown up the feature tonight with around 9mm at KCVG which is equivalent to .35" qpf at 15:1 landing around 5.25" Perhaps some banding for higher amounts and lower amounts so a general 4-6" as i have been forecasting for the last 24hrs or so. I think i will continue this forward and monitor the trends with the Euro since it has been pretty phenomenal since the beginning of Met Winter.

according to bufkit

CVG 3"

CMH a whopping 2"

CLE 2-3"

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Considering the southern wave that ejects out ahead of the main system is still NOT onshore yet and KNOWING how models typically handle such features at this time range i personally don't think it is wise to hop on a east/se threat. ANYONE who has followed such systems in the past will know this.

LC agrees with your thoughts...a little what he mentioned tonight.

A large upper level storm and broad subtropical jet stream off of the Pacific shoreline of the U.S.

and Mexico is on the move. The problem is, none of the computer models have a good handle on

this feature due to a lack of data. This situation may make for a rather bad forecast as this feature

moves eastward and interacts with disturbances in the polar and Arctic jet stream.

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no. you didnt say canadian in your post, I thought you were speaking of the GFS. My bad.

I mentioned northern friends in my post referring to the GEM, sorry for the confusion though. Pro text data from GFS printed .26 for CVG and based on my analysis I figured this to be around 4" so not too far off bufkit 3". That's neither here nor there, sounds like the Euro could be coming north a bit with the northern stream s/w.

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I mentioned northern friends in my post referring to the GEM, sorry for the confusion though. Pro text data from GFS printed .26 for CVG and based on my analysis I figured this to be around 4" so not too far off bufkit 3". That's neither here nor there, sounds like the Euro could be coming north a bit with the northern stream s/w.

Yea, and sounds like the EC is going to get hammered again.

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