buckeye Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The Euro had a lakes cutter for this time period on its 12Z run last Saturday! thats right...i remember that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Anything is on the table, but I certainly didn't see it cutting that far west before I saw the 12z GGEM. There's always scenarios where a block/confluence in the NE weakens, with a high coming in from the NW (depending on location and strength)...trough goes neutral/negative over the center of the country and the storm splits the uprights, sort of speak. It'll be an interesting system to watch, that's for sure. I'm gonna hold off on getting too bullish for LAF. If we're talking more generically about a major winter storm in the Midwest, I'm on board with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 of course...MECS...HECS... the usual. Remember where we are. The default is that any low pressure crossing the Miss river valley is a potential HECS until proven otherwise. So that CMC track is garbage I guess according to them... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 no way...not if it moves north that far west....it'll pump that ridge hard ahead of it and best case scenario for south of i-80 is probably some sort of slop to rain....then back to leftover flakes. Verbatim off the 12z GGEM, there'd be ice/snow to the right of the track. The GGEM is weakening the storm as it moves north/northwest...goes from 988 in TX at 108 to 999mb in SE IA at 144. No matter though, it's going to change 100 times over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 didn't we have a storm do this early in the season....almost due north from Kansas? I think this solution is as reasonable as any. Funny thing is that DT berated Harry and me in another forum last night for even suggesting that this could be a threat further north into the OV and lower lakes..... oooooooops DT is a fooking moron. I used to be of the belief that he's a great met, but he just has the social skills of a serial killer. But thinking about it, all the busts the last couple of years, the great Apps bomb of December 2008, February 2009, him busting and rebusting with the Christmas 2010 EC storm. He probably has a verification record no better or worse than your average met. He was good weeding out EC weenie dreams in 2007-08, but since then, nothing remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm gonna hold off on getting too bullish for LAF. If we're talking more generically about a major winter storm in the Midwest, I'm on board with that. Oh there's no reason to get bullish for LAF right now. For the region, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 of course...MECS...HECS... the usual. Remember where we are. The default is that any low pressure crossing the Miss river valley is a potential HECS until proven otherwise. Exactly. I always say that what many of the mets in the east (I said many, not all) do, is they pick whichever solution is best for the east, then analyze it and explain why it is the most logical solution, discarding all the other ones. All I can say is something is on the table, which is better than nothing. No one should be nitpicking at details like p-type and L placement, etc this far out. Just nice to know a winter storm is on the horizon and will be amusing moreso than informative to watch the models change in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 One thing that is pretty factual is behind this storm the models want to unleash the Arctic refuge! I am actually keeping an eye on that clipper system for Friday and see how that does. Then the focus turns to this one. But were going to see alot of ups and downs with this one. I just hope we don't crash like we did for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 What will the doctor say? Remember it had HECS Xmas storm nailed around this time frame.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Verbatim off the 12z GGEM, there'd be ice/snow to the right of the track. The GGEM is weakening the storm as it moves north/northwest...goes from 988 in TX at 108 to 999mb in SE IA at 144. No matter though, it's going to change 100 times over. At least there are still many runs to go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 didn't we have a storm do this early in the season....almost due north from Kansas? I think this solution is as reasonable as any. Funny thing is that DT berated Harry and me in another forum last night for even suggesting that this could be a threat further north into the OV and lower lakes..... oooooooops I posted 5 hours ago on his wxrisk FB page how the models are showing the block weakening around this time frame. He came back with how it wasn't even remotely correct. I responded with the ESRL and Allan Huffman graph links showing the weakening. The issue then got turned into how it was still negative. I didn't state it was not going to be negative...I said it was weakening. Low and behold...the GGEM comes out. I believe it's getting a hint of the weakening...but probably too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Exactly. I always say that what many of the mets in the east (I said many, not all) do, is they pick whichever solution is best for the east, then analyze it and explain why it is the most logical solution, discarding all the other ones. All I can say is something is on the table, which is better than nothing. No one should be nitpicking at details like p-type and L placement, etc this far out. Just nice to know a winter storm is on the horizon and will be amusing moreso than informative to watch the models change in the coming days. Strongly agree with the bolded part. All you can say after looking at any of these solution this far in advance is, "well, I can rule out this solution". Because, as always, we won't have a clue on what this thing is going to do until 3-4 days before event time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 I posted on his wxrisk FB page how the models are showing the block weakening around this time frame. He came back with how it wasn't even remotely correct. I responded with the ESRL and Allan Huffman graph links showing the weakening. The issue then got turned into how it was still negative. I didn't state it was not going to be negative...I said it was weakening. lol... A good forecaster should recognize and NOT base a forecast on what’s best for their backyard that’s where you get burnt. That’s why it hard to really listen to some of the METS on here because bias is simply sickening. I am still extremely cautious with this storm because there is alot that could go wrong but I do believe this storm will not be east because as you said weakening blocking. Pretty much common sense! My one concern is a track a bit too far west that will allow for slop or no real phasing takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 threw 120 hours the 12z EURO is very cold and suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Can only see out to 120 on the EURO but judging by the huge piece of energy lagging behind in the GLs, I'd bet on suppressed over cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Such a range of solutions at 144 hours. 12z GGEM with a low in SE IA and the Euro with a front runner sliding off the SE coast and some squashed energy in far southern TX. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So yeah, the Euro isn't going to look like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Can only see out to 120 on the EURO but judging by the huge piece of energy lagging behind in the GLs, I'd bet on suppressed over cutter. It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 id rather see suppression city on the euro then a lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 lolz, the actual D4 storm by 144 is 400-500 miles NE of Newfoundland. Well enough east to prevent suppression except for the fact that the EURO keeps this weird secondary vortex stalled over the GLs between 96 and 144. Far be it for me to question the King, but it looks sort of strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So yeah, the Euro isn't going to look like the GGEM. So the big 3 give us: GFS: A west to east type of snowstorm scenario, large swath of snow, with Milwaukee-Detroit as the northern fringe GEM: A cutter that cuts into WI, giving heavy snow to MN, WI, the U.P. Though verbatum does look like frozen precip well ese of the L EURO: Suppressed bunch of nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Such a range of solutions at 144 hours. 12z GGEM with a low in SE IA and the Euro with a front runner sliding off the SE coast and some squashed energy in far southern TX. Good times There only 1500 miles apart no biggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 euro makes me think the ggem is out to lunch.... Euro is king when sniffing out a cutter. right now the gfs is the compromise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 id rather see suppression city on the euro then a lakes cutter. me too, once it's radar locks on a cutter it's all over for us in the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 id rather see suppression city on the euro then a lakes cutter. QFT Euro likes it some Nor'easters it seems...although this run is a little later developing and a bit wide to the right. No harm, no foul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So the big 3 give us: GFS: A west to east type of snowstorm scenario, large swath of snow, with Milwaukee-Detroit as the northern fringe GEM: A cutter that cuts into WI, giving heavy snow to MN, WI, the U.P. Though verbatum does look like frozen precip well ese of the L EURO: Suppressed bunch of nothing Isn't this similar to what the models were depicting at this time frame on the Christmas "storm"? EDIT: I mean the same models depicting the same things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hate giving Ji threads any credibility, so I'll post this here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Isn't this similar to what the models were depicting at this time frame on the Christmas "storm"? EDIT: I mean the same models depicting the same things. No, pretty sure the Euro had the bomb on the east coast at this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12z Ukie seems to be a weaker, farther southeast version of the GGEM. Maybe closer to the 12z GFS? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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