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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects


Madmaxweather

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Verbatim the GFS, most of Kentucky would get a 3-5 inch snow with this system. I could live with that. Onto the Euro, wish the Northern stream was a little stronger and I thought it would with it slowing down a bit.

Yeah which is why the GFS is totally out to lunch on this one.

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GFS was a pretty nice run for the Lower Ohio Valley. NAM also, looks like it was latched on to a similar solution beyond its 84 hours. We'll have to see if the moisture comes through - the tendency has been to weaken the northern stream as the storm moves into the Mid- Mississippi Valley. Part of that may have been the 500 mb vortex which the latest trend is to have it out of here some time Monday. Getting better for the Ohio Valley with time. also 00z pained a solid 2-5" along the Ohio and lower Wabash Valley's in Indiana and Western Kentucky.

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1. the Vortex in the plains at 102 will be stronger heading east.

Nearly every single northern vort this year has been stronger as we get closer.

if that is true and the southern vort can wash out faster, maybe a better moisture supply would be available.

either way, I do not recall this pattern any time in recent years at the H5 level.

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Yeah I don't follow either. What is out to lunch?

Northern stream low gets suppressed into Mexico around 96hr even though the 500mb energy is still north and the southern stream system hitting the coast and then stalling there as its 500mb energy shears out and weakens.

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Northern stream low gets suppressed into Mexico around 96hr even though the 500mb energy is still north and the southern stream system hitting the coast and then stalling there as its 500mb energy shears out and weakens.

I honestly don't follow what you are talking about here. I don't see anything out-to-lunch with this run though.

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I honestly don't follow what you are talking about here. I don't see anything out-to-lunch with this run though.

You telling me that the Southern stream low as it hits the East Coast is just going to sit there for almost 18hr near Georgia. I just am having a hard time buying much of southern stream system about hr 78.

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1. the Vortex in the plains at 102 will be stronger heading east.

Nearly every single northern vort this year has been stronger as we get closer.

if that is true and the southern vort can wash out faster, maybe a better moisture supply would be available.

either way, I do not recall this pattern any time in recent years at the H5 level.

gfs is the right idea in general, but i think its too weak with the northern vort, thus showing less digging resulting in a weaker solution with much less precip further north. The gfs digs the energy, starts to negatively tilt the trough and then flattens it out and shears the energy east. Even the usually progressive nogaps has come in at 00z with a much sharper trough and a stronger low to eastern KY.

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gfs is the right idea in general, but i think its too weak with the northern vort, thus showing less digging resulting in a weaker solution with much less precip further north. The gfs digs the energy, starts to negatively tilt the trough and then flattens it out and shears the energy east. Even the usually progressive nogaps has come in at 00z with a much sharper trough and a stronger low to eastern KY.

That would be a very nice snow for all 3 of us if the NOGAPS were taken verbatim.

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You telling me that the Southern stream low as it hits the East Coast is just going to sit there for almost 18hr near Georgia. I just am having a hard time buying much of southern stream system about hr 78.

Well thanks for reiterating...I honestly didn't know what you meant at first.

We were talking about this in the discussion thread, but the weakening of the southern wave occurs rapidly through deep condensation and rapid latent heat release through the depth of the migratory wave. Heights rise rapidly and the migratory wave closes off and stalls. The surface low weakens and fills through the same processes that weaken stacked lows...ekman friction, etc. The GFS is trying to "capture" the low level circulation with the ejecting jet streak to further support cyclogenesis and redevelop the surface low off the coast.

It may look weird, but it isn't non-sensical from a dynamic standpoint.

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Well thanks for reiterating...I honestly didn't know what you meant at first.

We were talking about this in the discussion thread, but the weakening of the southern wave occurs rapidly through deep condensation and rapid latent heat release through the depth of the migratory wave. Heights rise rapidly and the migratory wave closes off and stalls. The surface low weakens and fills through the same processes that weaken stacked lows...ekman friction, etc. The GFS is trying to "capture" the low level circulation with the ejecting jet streak to further support cyclogenesis and redevelop the surface low off the coast.

It may look weird, but it isn't non-sensical from a dynamic standpoint.

The problem is do we honestly believe it being that far south in the gulf to begin with?

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The problem is do we honestly believe it being that far south in the gulf to begin with?

Another question worth asking. Most guidance has pretty much centered on a solution with a migratory wave riding the edge of the GOM but the low level surface low well into the GOM. Convection and low level convergence to support that convection over the warm waters is why the low is so far displaced from the upper wave. You can see the moist warm sector convective response much better in the low level theta-e fields. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

I have been looking for trends regarding the cutoff, but almost all guidance and SREF ride it along the edge of the GOM, so from a forecasting standpoint I don't see a huge reason to red flag the model track of that feature.

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Another question worth asking. Most guidance has pretty much centered on a solution with a migratory wave riding the edge of the GOM but the low level surface low well into the GOM. Convection and low level convregence to support that convection over the warm waters is why the low is so far displaced from the upper wave. You can see the moist warm sector convective response much better in the low level theta-e fields. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

I have been looking for trends regarding the cutoff, but almost all guidance and SREF ride it along the edge of the GOM, so from a forecasting standpoint I don't see a huge reason to red flag the model track of that feature.

It is a slight red flag as it is the furthest south in the gulf, compared to others but this is one to wait and see how it plays out as this could have huge implications if its in the gulf or along it.

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