dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 1-2" YEEHAAAAWWWW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We do have at least one active forum member in Omaha and he may be one of the winners. The Omaha NWS is thinking widespread 3-6 inches, possibly more for southeastern Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We do have at least one forum member in Omaha and he may be one of the winners. The Omaha NWS is thinking widespread 3-6 inches, possibly more for southeastern Nebraska. yea, there are a few members who could get a decent snow. OV poster started it, and imo it is game over for most of the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We do have at least one active forum member in Omaha and he may be one of the winners. The Omaha NWS is thinking widespread 3-6 inches, possibly more for southeastern Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We do have at least one active forum member in Omaha and he may be one of the winners. The Omaha NWS is thinking widespread 3-6 inches, possibly more for southeastern Nebraska. Going to be an interesting event across parts of KS/NB/NW MO. Guidance varies, but it does look as if the arctic front will stall as the western trough stalls over the northern intermountain W and sends a secondary jet across the backside of the system into the plains. Global models won't catch it as well, but a prolonged period of frontogenesis is possible with heavy banding potential depending on the orientation of this system. Storm warnings are likely somewhere down there...exactly where hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 jb just updated and now he's all about an i-95 event. Mentions snow into the OV but doesn't say how much. He has been flipp'n and flopp'n worse than the models. His theory is the weak front runner comes out and hangs just off the coast enough to allow the northern stream energy to come in and catch it. It does make sense, I just wish we could get that damn southern stream to slow down and let the phasing occur much earlier. he mentioned 1983 feb as an analog. I believe that was the snowstorm where the plane crashed in the potomac in DC. If that's the one, then we did get 4-6" from that back here, i remember that well, i was a senior in HS. My favorite blizzard as a youngster. BTW.. The Plane crash was the winter before in another storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Going to be an interesting event across parts of KS/NB/NW MO. Guidance varies, but it does look as if the arctic front will stall as the western trough stalls over the northern intermountain W and sends a secondary jet across the backside of the system into the plains. Global models won't catch it as well, but a prolonged period of frontogenesis is possible with heavy banding potential depending on the orientation of this system. Storm warnings are likely somewhere down there...exactly where hard to say. Couple more runs and it'll be up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 My favorite blizzard as a youngster. BTW.. The Plane crash was the winter before in another storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We do have at least one active forum member in Omaha and he may be one of the winners. The Omaha NWS is thinking widespread 3-6 inches, possibly more for southeastern Nebraska. hey friend ill be happy if we can see 2" its been so boring in the plains states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z DGEX wasn't bad lol take that with a grain of salt. 18z GFS wasn't bad either for southern Ohio We'll see if the 00z does anything cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z GEFS continue to be a little NW of the OP, which is an encouraging sign based on their cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That would be the one. About 18" in my backyard! Not the biggest event i have seen but one of a few that was a daytime event and had a thunder and light show on top of it. PD 1 ( Feb 79 ) was closer to 2 feet in my backyard but was mostly a overnight event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z DGEX wasn't bad lol take that with a grain of salt. 18z GFS wasn't bad either for southern Ohio We'll see if the 00z does anything cool the 18zgfs and dgex are interesting. I was originally rooting for the southern stream to slow down, but actually getting that first piece out of the way and off the southeast coast allows more room for the northern energy to dig and do a little more dirty work in our neck of the woods. That's kind of what their showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My favorite blizzard as a youngster. BTW.. The Plane crash was the winter before in another storm. ok, well then the potomac plane crash snowstorm in DC is the one that gave us the 3-6" back here in ohio. I remember coming in from shoveling the driveway and watching the new story. so I guess i was a junior in HS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 once again, overwhelming majority of 18z ensemble members have a much more significant reflection over the n. OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 once again, overwhelming majority of 18z ensemble members have a much more significant reflection over the n. OV. 9 of 12 I'll take p003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ok, well then the potomac plane crash snowstorm in DC is the one that gave us the 3-6" back here in ohio. I remember coming in from shoveling the driveway and watching the new story. so I guess i was a junior in HS. I remember that all too well. Was also a metro rail crash the same day related to the storm too but that did not get the play on the media because of the plane. The DC area was a complete mess/shut down for a few days because of all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 9 of 12 I'll take p003 someone can correct me if i'm wrong but i believe the top left is the OP run. That means 10 out of 11 are way more bullish than the OP. I like those odds. 00z should be interesting to see if the OP goes that direction. Like I said, could be a nice moderate event, (maybe fairly long duration as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 with the system still off the coast, there is plenty of time for things to change, i just hope the models stay consistant with qpf for iowa/nebraska/kansas, but give more for the OV . Still too early for me to get excited about 6+ possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 someone can correct me if i'm wrong but i believe the top left is the OP run. That means 10 out of 11 are way more bullish than the OP. I like those odds. 00z should be interesting to see if the OP goes that direction. Like I said, could be a nice moderate event, (maybe fairly long duration as well). I've pretty much given up, not trying to be a downer, but there is always a little hope this far out. Did not like seeing the euro come back north a bit last night only for the gfs and other to go further south to where they were, seems like they may come to a consensus and meet in the middle of where the ECMWF was and where the GEM was last night. maybe the middle of those two runs last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I've pretty much given up, not trying to be a downer, but there is always a little hope this far out. Did not like seeing the euro come back north a bit last night only for the gfs and other to go further south to where they were, seems like they may come to a consensus and meet in the middle of where the ECMWF was and where the GEM was last night. maybe the middle of those two runs last night. the 'event' is still 120 hrs out. Might as well be 240 hrs out this winter the way the models have acted. I'm holding firm with my idea that next tues-wed we see our best snow event to date this season. Once we get inside 72hrs I'll update or bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 the 'event' is still 120 hrs out. Might as well be 240 hrs out this winter the way the models have acted. I'm holding firm with my idea that next tues-wed we see our best snow event to date this season. Once we get inside 72hrs I'll update or bail. Were in the same camp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 with the system still off the coast, there is plenty of time for things to change, i just hope the models stay consistant with qpf for iowa/nebraska/kansas, but give more for the OV . Still too early for me to get excited about 6+ possible 21Z sref mean good hit for your area...48hr total qpf from hr 87...0.90" se ne/nw mo/ne ks/sw ia area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GEFS continue to be a little NW of the OP, which is an encouraging sign based on their cold bias. This is a good point, of course I'd rather it be the 00z run doing it. But its a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GEFS continue to be a little NW of the OP, which is an encouraging sign based on their cold bias. Cold bias didn't play a role in this...the mean was affected by the 4-5 ensemble members developing a coastal low which took the whole mean and shifted it NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this is the 87hr 500 mean sref21z ....i just have a hard time believing a storm escapes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 once again, overwhelming majority of 18z ensemble members have a much more significant reflection over the n. OV. This is encouraging! Im trying to stay away from models and just enjoy the lake snow the next 2 days, so hopefully by Sunday we will know one way or other. (Although thats still several days out, so probably not lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this is the 87hr 500 mean sref21z ....i just have a hard time believing a storm escapes east. When you look at that map, then yes, it looks good. I glanced at the members, and they have huge discrepancies with the southern migratory wave and its placement. As a result of the speed differences, the mean height field dampens it out completely and makes it look like it isn't there. Right now SREF prolly isn't a good guide simply because the mesoscale models will have more difficulty in handling the southern wave than the globals will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 When you look at that map, then yes, it looks good. I glanced at the members, and they have huge discrepancies with the southern migratory wave and its placement. As a result of the speed differences, the mean height field dampens it out completely and makes it look like it isn't there. Right now SREF prolly isn't a good guide simply because the mesoscale models will have more difficulty in handling the southern wave than the globals will. it looks like the slp mean shows a lot of those discrepencies include low pressure further north into central and n. ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the 'event' is still 120 hrs out. Might as well be 240 hrs out this winter the way the models have acted. I'm holding firm with my idea that next tues-wed we see our best snow event to date this season. Once we get inside 72hrs I'll update or bail. we will see. hope youre right, but regardless if the models tonight dont show at least some kind of life, then I am done sitting here watching models for this storm. I'll glance but that'll be about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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