The_Global_Warmer Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc2.html new ukmet is there right after 11ET am and 11ET pm it is out before the Canadian. to 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 12 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12 CMC the first shortwave in the southern branch is f/\cking everything up. It's preventing any ridging from forming out ahead. We need that to either slow way down or the northern branch to speed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 http://vortex.plymou...u/grbcalc2.html new ukmet is there right after 11ET am and 11ET pm it is out before the Canadian. to 72 hours Ah ok, I see now, thanks. It looks like the GGEM, but not as phased and strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 now the northern vort is a joke. what a waste! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Were still several days out and we'll see what happens over the next 24hrs... The EURO is next and I'm sure it will likely stick to its guns.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Joe Bistardi still thinks were in the game. He made a new video before the 12z runs came out and basically the 00z runs were more in line with his thinking. Wonder what he will say now since the 12z went backwards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 it's interesting that the OP is the outlier showing very little if any precip in the OV and midwest. Except for the OP and a couple other ensemble members, most have a more pronounced inverted trough or reflection further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 it's interesting that the OP is the outlier showing very little if any precip in the OV and midwest. Except for the OP and a couple other ensemble members, most have a more pronounced inverted trough or reflection further west. Yeap... I think the CMC was actually closer to the reflection idea. One thing to note folks. Is that were in tough pattern and all models are struggling especially in the time frame were currently in. They did awful with the Christmas Storm and did not latch onto an idea till inside 60hrs. I feel this will be a very similiar case. I have been told my METS that were in a very unique pattern and because of that models are having a rough time sniffing out things. All in all the models made need an update to adjust to is currently going on globally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 The EURO went back with its southward idea..... Oh well I am waiting till we get inside 60-84hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The EURO went back with its southward idea..... Oh well I am waiting till we get inside 60-84hrs.... Keep waiting. You're wasting your time. It's game over. Quit holding onto hope lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Keep waiting. You're wasting your time. It's game over. Quit holding onto hope lol. I am not hopping on the "Bus" yet.... I know its crashing and burning right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am not hopping on the "Bus" yet.... I know its crashing and burning right now... This game was over as soon as the GFS showed this storm hammering us back on Dec. 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Throwing in the towel on this one. Christmas Storm II. Even though we got some snow out of the Christmas Eve system, it wasn't much. Somehow I think this storm is going to be less generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 we are still in line for a 1-3 inch light dry snow..but hey tomorrow the models have a clipper that can easily hit 2+ in spots if some banding sets up. what is the difference? what a huge waste of time. If someone knows more then me can give some reason on what could happen that could make this better that are realistic that would be great..if not lets break this thread up and create a new one for the Northern vort and see what that can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It was over when this thread was made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 There is hope the following weekend but I'll be damned if I am going to make a thread on that one if this one crashes and burns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The EURO went back with its southward idea..... Oh well I am waiting till we get inside 60-84hrs.... With all respect, the Euro did not go back south. It stayed very much in place. I think you are missing something because it was light at 00Z and it is still light at 12Z. If anything it is a little more moist at the H7 and H8 levels. The upper levels at H5 are more dynamic, too, with respect to the central Ohio Valley where you reside. This is not a BIG STORM look but the moving south prognostication is not correct. You have to look at all the levels and features and not just the surface. If you look at the H5 and H7 then relay that to the H8 you will see very little change in all of those features on a N/S trajectory. Again, not a big storm but the features in the UA did NOT go south. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Keep waiting. You're wasting your time. It's game over. Quit holding onto hope lol. I guess it depends on what you mean by game over. If you mean the chance of it giving us our biggest snowfall so far this season is over, I would disagree with you. If by gameover you mean we won't see a major winterstorm, I'd say you're probably correct. I never saw this as a blockbuster, but I still believe it could be a 3"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 With all respect, the Euro did not go back south. It stayed very much in place. I think you are missing something because it was light at 00Z and it is still light at 12Z. If anything it is a little more moist at the H7 and H8 levels. The upper levels at H5 are more dynamic, too, with respect to the central Ohio Valley where you reside. This is not a BIG STORM look but the moving south prognostication is not correct. You have to look at all the levels and features and not just the surface. If you look at the H5 and H7 then relay that to the H8 you will see very little change in all of those features on a N/S trajectory. Again, not a big storm but the features in the UA did NOT go south. Josh I agree Josh. One consistent thing i'm seeing on most models is an attempt to bring precip in a west to east swath across the mw and OH valley. I'm not sure if that's a result of an inverted trough or precip associated with the ULL swinging thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I agree Josh. One consistent thing i'm seeing on most models is an attempt to bring precip in a west to east swath across the mw and OH valley. I'm not sure if that's a result of an inverted trough or precip associated with the ULL swinging thru. Yes I am not sure at this time either if it will be a sole ULL, an inverted trough or a bit of both. The fact the 500 vort is very W to E oriented makes me believe there will be something that produced a few inches. Each run has a different make up but I hedge a little more on the ULL side then the inverted trough; however, that trough does get close enough to maybe nose in some influence. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I guess it depends on what you mean by game over. If you mean the chance of it giving us our biggest snowfall so far this season is over, I would disagree with you. If by gameover you mean we won't see a major winterstorm, I'd say you're probably correct. I never saw this as a blockbuster, but I still believe it could be a 3"+. At this point id go 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 jb just updated and now he's all about an i-95 event. Mentions snow into the OV but doesn't say how much. He has been flipp'n and flopp'n worse than the models. His theory is the weak front runner comes out and hangs just off the coast enough to allow the northern stream energy to come in and catch it. It does make sense, I just wish we could get that damn southern stream to slow down and let the phasing occur much earlier. he mentioned 1983 feb as an analog. I believe that was the snowstorm where the plane crashed in the potomac in DC. If that's the one, then we did get 4-6" from that back here, i remember that well, i was a senior in HS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I guess the last man standing is the DGEX. 18z run still has an inverted sfc trough/weak sfc low heading into the OV giving the E OV/E Lakes a moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The CMC was trash as expected. I am hoping its failure after failure is being noted in here when it depicts these oddball solutions--it will save a lot of folks heartache. Close but yet so far away. Blocking is really not our problem. It is a lot more to do with the southern wave both killing advection patterns ahead of the trough and dominating the low level moisture feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The CMC was trash as expected. I am hoping its failure after failure is being noted in here when it depicts these oddball solutions--it will save a lot of folks heartache. Close but yet so far away. Blocking is really not our problem. It is a lot more to do with the southern wave both killing advection patterns ahead of the trough and dominating the low level moisture feed. ehh it's over. This thread might as well be closed. Anyone who isnt just doing the poke and hope should clearly see it's over for most of us, aside from 1-3" which, big whoop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The CMC was trash as expected. I am hoping its failure after failure is being noted in here when it depicts these oddball solutions--it will save a lot of folks heartache. Close but yet so far away. Blocking is really not our problem. It is a lot more to do with the southern wave both killing advection patterns ahead of the trough and dominating the low level moisture feed. This is what buckeye was alluding to when wishing the southern wave would slow down. ehh it's over. This thread might as well be closed. Anyone who isnt just doing the poke and hope should clearly see it's over for most of us, aside from 1-3" which, big whoop. I'm still all for posting on this northern wave. I'm not going to be disappointed if we could squeeze 3"out of it, as it would be the biggest snowfall of the year for some parts of the MW/OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ehh it's over. This thread might as well be closed. Anyone who isnt just doing the poke and hope should clearly see it's over for most of us, aside from 1-3" which, big whoop. These busts are almost as bad as expecting a big severe outbreak and only getting showers. As for all these going south solutions....all I can say is....:banned::banned: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 These busts are almost as bad as expecting a big severe outbreak and only getting showers. As for all these going south solutions....all I can say is....:banned::banned: Guess I dont understand if youre agreeing or saying I am wrong lol. At this point I am trying to understand where other Ohio people and Indiana a figuring 3+ inches still. Not sure what they're looking at? Southern Indiana may have a shot, but it isnt looking too great there either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Guess I dont understand if youre agreeing or saying I am wrong lol. I wasn't saying if your wrong....I was saying I wish the models would quit doing that....adding a little humor to the bus ride....or going up in flames on the attempt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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