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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects


Madmaxweather

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For the GFS as I explained a bit earlier...I like the fact that at H5 the 552 height field just went due negative over E Ohio. With the atmosphere working top-down, have to believe that the later runs will start to push a surface low more NW. The H7 stream of 90+ humidity is almost linked together and then it catches up right over SC Ohio. Add another 6 hours then that 700 will pass right over the CVG region. H8 is closed east of here but once again in top-down fashion the 850 will start deepening faster in relative fashion and more west leading to a more NW track of the surface low.

Again 5 days out cannot hold tons of merit but extrapolating what could occur if the trend continues would be similar to what I just mentioned. It is at least fun to track a potential mid to heavy OV event for Tuesday.

Josh

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Should we open it to the people for the whole board, or just keep between us central members? If it's just central members, maybe we could make a thread in the central section?

Depends if we can get 10-15 people from here if so then I'd say stay Central region.

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Depends if we can get 10-15 people from here if so then I'd say stay Central region.

I'm down. Never done the fantasy baseball, so I may be easy money lol. I do fantasy football and basketball every year, can't be much different lol. I took 2nd on my nfl.com fantasy. Now wonder, dude had vick, foster(texans), Miles austin, steelers d. To name a few. His team was stacked.. But anyways, let me know.

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For the GFS as I explained a bit earlier...I like the fact that at H5 the 552 height field just went due negative over E Ohio. With the atmosphere working top-down, have to believe that the later runs will start to push a surface low more NW. The H7 stream of 90+ humidity is almost linked together and then it catches up right over SC Ohio. Add another 6 hours then that 700 will pass right over the CVG region. H8 is closed east of here but once again in top-down fashion the 850 will start deepening faster in relative fashion and more west leading to a more NW track of the surface low.

Again 5 days out cannot hold tons of merit but extrapolating what could occur if the trend continues would be similar to what I just mentioned. It is at least fun to track a potential mid to heavy OV event for Tuesday.

Josh

Josh here too. Anyways I agree. I actually like where we sit right now. Was nice to see the Euro bring the southern stream north. Especially considering once the Euro starts a trend it typically sticks with it. Should be fun. Better than the past week where there was nothing.

Btw anyone know of any sites that explain all things winter weather? Would like to learn more than I know. Preferably being able to explain my thoughts better. I can look at models and know what I see, but have a hard time explaining it to others mainly due to the fact of never going to study weather I think.

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Josh here too. Anyways I agree. I actually like where we sit right now. Was nice to see the Euro bring the southern stream north. Especially considering once the Euro starts a trend it typically sticks with it. Should be fun. Better than the past week where there was nothing.

Btw anyone know of any sites that explain all things winter weather? Would like to learn more than I know. Preferably being able to explain my thoughts better. I can look at models and know what I see, but have a hard time explaining it to others mainly due to the fact of never going to study weather I think.

Depends on who you want to talk to. The general public (people in general) don't know what all those big words mean and they will gloss over when you start to explain.

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Depends on who you want to talk to. The general public (people in general) don't know what all those big words mean and they will gloss over when you start to explain.

Yea it probably is better to just say "its gonna snow" lol, but its more for myself. Been times I have wanted to do case histories on storms but have the problem of writing it all down. I've found websites but I wanna focus on winterwx, not so much severe. Was gonna go to college to be a met cause it is my passion, but just the scarcity of jobs out there prevented me from doing it. Wish I would've.

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Josh here too. Anyways I agree. I actually like where we sit right now. Was nice to see the Euro bring the southern stream north. Especially considering once the Euro starts a trend it typically sticks with it. Should be fun. Better than the past week where there was nothing.

Btw anyone know of any sites that explain all things winter weather? Would like to learn more than I know. Preferably being able to explain my thoughts better. I can look at models and know what I see, but have a hard time explaining it to others mainly due to the fact of never going to study weather I think.

Yes I cannot argue at where the placement of things are right now. As you said even though the Euro is light, the 125-150 moisture jump in the H7 and H8 is a good sign. That gives more weight IMO to the GFS and GGEM since Euro followed the other two. 144 0Z is a ton more moist all across OV/MW compared to 144 12Z so as some said I have to believe Euro QPF could be underdone by a decent amount. Not sure how much but looking at the 500 lift and the high humidity at 700 combined with a good amount of low level cold at 850 and moisture; every bit of moisture is going to get squeezed out and .05-.10 just does not look right at this time. But from Day 5, positioning is not too bad. If this is anything like the EC storm of Christmas weekend, the Euro will come back another 150 miles and belt us. GFS only needs about 75 so it is well within range to shift a bit more N and W.

Josh

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Yes I cannot argue at where the placement of things are right now. As you said even though the Euro is light, the 125-150 moisture jump in the H7 and H8 is a good sign. That gives more weight IMO to the GFS and GGEM since Euro followed the other two. 144 0Z is a ton more moist all across OV/MW compared to 144 12Z so as some said I have to believe Euro QPF could be underdone by a decent amount. Not sure how much but looking at the 500 lift and the high humidity at 700 combined with a good amount of low level cold at 850 and moisture; every bit of moisture is going to get squeezed out and .05-.10 just does not look right at this time. But from Day 5, positioning is not too bad. If this is anything like the EC storm of Christmas weekend, the Euro will come back another 150 miles and belt us. GFS only needs about 75 so it is well within range to shift a bit more N and W.

Josh

Yea I agree with that. Phase is getting closer, and the euro doesn't make much sense where the two streams are concerned. I don't like how the euro holds back the northern stream. GFS and Gem look a lot better with it, would just like the phase to happen sooner.. Not sure we could get a full phase for us the way models are looking, but even a partial phase could be the difference between an advisory and warning criteria event. Id like to see the 12z Euro fall in line with the gfs and gem. Get that northern piece ejecting faster and we could have something. Hope you can make sense of my jibberish, now you understand what I am meaning about writing down my thoughts. I know what I see, just can't make sense of it in writing lol.

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Yea I agree with that. Phase is getting closer, and the euro doesn't make much sense where the two streams are concerned. I don't like how the euro holds back the northern stream. GFS and Gem look a lot better with it, would just like the phase to happen sooner.. Not sure we could get a full phase for us the way models are looking, but even a partial phase could be the difference between advisory and warning criteria event. Id like to see the Euro tomorrow fall in line with the gfs and gem. Get that northern piece ejecting fastor and we could have something. Hope you can make sense of my jibberish, now you understand what I am meaning about writing down my thoughts. I know what I see, just can't make sense of it in writing lol.

Yep I think we are 6-12 hours away from at least getting a modest phasing to affect us. 12 to 18 might be the best but 6 to 12 faster can mean another 70 to 100 mile more NW track and get a low over W North Carolina instead of E Carolinas. I believe getting this to phase 18 hours faster is small but the fact it is pretty close at Day 5 maybe we can get that partial phase and get modest amounts.

I understand. I try not to be too technical with my posts so the normal public can understand but I can get real technical if I wanted to. But you do not have to worry I understand what you are saying so it is not gibberish to me.

Josh

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Yep I think we are 6-12 hours away from at least getting a modest phasing to affect us. 12 to 18 might be the best but 6 to 12 faster can mean another 70 to 100 mile more NW track and get a low over W North Carolina instead of E Carolinas. I believe getting this to phase 18 hours faster is small but the fact it is pretty close at Day 5 maybe we can get that partial phase and get modest amounts.

I understand. I try not to be too technical with my posts so the normal public can understand but I can get real technical if I wanted to. But you do not have to worry I understand what you are saying so it is not gibberish to me.

Josh

Yea, not I lol. I'm 26 and you can write out a far better analysis than me and you're 18. I've been watching models for probably 8 years and can't even come close to writing explanations like you do. You, my friend, really should go to college for atmospheric sciences. I don't know anyone else your age that has that knowledge of weather and be able to explain it as you do. For being your age and untrained in it, Id say you've got a job waiting at NWS CLE if you so choose after schooling. At least for Winter wx. If you're anything like me, winter weather is all I am really into. Hurricanes somewhat, but thunderstorms don't interest me too much when it comes to forecasting.

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you all are better men than me.....I couldn't stay up for the euro lol. Looks like it had baby steps in the right direction though. It finally has that 'look' of trying to bring a reflection up the apps, albeit incredibly weak at this point. I think we sit in a nice spot, anywhere from OH to IN to KY at this point...maybe even s. MI and IL. If models right now were showing a strong primary making it to the OH river at 120 hrs out, I'd already be congratulating our chicago and MI posters....9 out of 10 times, once the models catch onto this scenario the western low becomes the stronger low and the transfer takes longer and longer.

Just to clarify, I said this looks like it could be our best snow all season so far.....all that would take here in columbus is a 3"+. I'm not calling for a blockbuster here....maybe 3-6"? Out all day today, hopefully better news when i get back in.

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you all are better men than me.....I couldn't stay up for the euro lol. Looks like it had baby steps in the right direction though. It finally has that 'look' of trying to bring a reflection up the apps, albeit incredibly weak at this point. I think we sit in a nice spot, anywhere from OH to IN to KY at this point...maybe even s. MI and IL. If models right now were showing a strong primary making it to the OH river at 120 hrs out, I'd already be congratulating our chicago and MI posters....9 out of 10 times, once the models catch onto this scenario the western low becomes the stronger low and the transfer takes longer and longer.

Just to clarify, I said this looks like it could be our best snow all season so far.....all that would take here in columbus is a 3"+. I'm not calling for a blockbuster here....maybe 3-6"? Out all day today, hopefully better news when i get back in.

Watch the southern stream wave. That is key in how this overall storm develops. I wrote more about it in the Philly/NYC thread here:

http://www.americanw...post__p__229552

For our region (your region specifically), it will be hard for that weak secondary jet to incite strong WAA and break through the stagnant cold air mass over the Lakes. The CMC is a big pile, and the main reason it tracks it so far N is the way it handles the southern S/W. It will be wrong regarding that southern S/W, and for now, it is easy to call its bluff. Light snow is a good bet, but the dry low levels will be hard to overcome. There are other considerations as well, but it would take 2 pages to go through all of them. Right now, light snow is a decent bet, but as you said, nothing blockbuster.

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I'll ride the best model and anticipate nothing but boring cold.

The way my winter's been going, I will agree with Alek and hump the Euro with it's best verification scores.

you all are better men than me.....I couldn't stay up for the euro lol. Looks like it had baby steps in the right direction though. It finally has that 'look' of trying to bring a reflection up the apps, albeit incredibly weak at this point. I think we sit in a nice spot, anywhere from OH to IN to KY at this point...maybe even s. MI and IL. If models right now were showing a strong primary making it to the OH river at 120 hrs out, I'd already be congratulating our chicago and MI posters....9 out of 10 times, once the models catch onto this scenario the western low becomes the stronger low and the transfer takes longer and longer.

Just to clarify, I said this looks like it could be our best snow all season so far.....all that would take here in columbus is a 3"+. I'm not calling for a blockbuster here....maybe 3-6"? Out all day today, hopefully better news when i get back in.

I know I haven't lost any sleep over it. Dr. No convinced me early on that he is the reigning king and all who question his authority are relegated to fatigue. Granted, it might end up throwing a little love to our friends from I-70 on south and Buckeye, I hope you see some snow out of this. I feel your pain with my greatest snowfall for the year an astounding 2.3".

My first call for MBY is the Chicago Storm Special.

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Another prety strong storm either hugging the coast or OTS. Anyone care to explain to me why we keep seeing storms taking the same track. I know the block has been a big part but the block is weakening during this time period and it's still supressed. The left over vortex looks to lift out in time. Also is it just natural for these storms to intensify once they reach the ocean? Thanks in advance

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Another prety strong storm either hugging the coast or OTS. Anyone care to explain to me why we keep seeing storms taking the same track. I know the block has been a big part but the block is weakening during this time period and it's still supressed. The left over vortex looks to lift out in time. Also is it just natural for these storms to intensify once they reach the ocean? Thanks in advance

The block may be weakening, but its still there.

In fact, it may not be weakening at all, but rather its position & struture has changed.

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The block may be weakening, but its still there.

In fact, it may not be weakening at all, but rather its position & struture has changed.

Actually this is more about bad timing. Can thank the current system acting as a blocker to this potential system next week.

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