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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects


Madmaxweather

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Whats the MOS for kcmh and kzzv?

Remove your map making my page all weird lol

CMH

TUE 18Z 11-JAN -2.8 -8.5 1016 81 100 0.06 540 528

WED 00Z 12-JAN -4.1 -9.4 1018 92 99 0.06 540 525

WED 06Z 12-JAN -5.0 -10.1 1019 95 99 0.01 538 524

WED 12Z 12-JAN -4.8 -11.4 1021 96 100 0.02 537 521

WED 18Z 12-JAN -2.0 -12.1 1021 80 100 0.03 536 520

THU 00Z 13-JAN -3.9 -11.9 1023 96 98 0.02 536 519

THU 06Z 13-JAN -5.0 -12.1 1024 97 85 0.01 537 519

ZZY did not work. Is that Zanesville?

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CMH

TUE 18Z 11-JAN -2.8 -8.5 1016 81 100 0.06 540 528

WED 00Z 12-JAN -4.1 -9.4 1018 92 99 0.06 540 525

WED 06Z 12-JAN -5.0 -10.1 1019 95 99 0.01 538 524

WED 12Z 12-JAN -4.8 -11.4 1021 96 100 0.02 537 521

WED 18Z 12-JAN -2.0 -12.1 1021 80 100 0.03 536 520

THU 00Z 13-JAN -3.9 -11.9 1023 96 98 0.02 536 519

THU 06Z 13-JAN -5.0 -12.1 1024 97 85 0.01 537 519

ZZY did not work. Is that Zanesville?

v not y but it's cool the site I get it should be updated soon.

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ZZY

TUE 12Z 11-JAN -5.0 -7.0 1018 88 100 0.03 544 530

TUE 18Z 11-JAN -3.5 -8.0 1014 88 99 0.11 540 528

WED 00Z 12-JAN -3.9 -9.1 1017 97 100 0.08 539 526

WED 06Z 12-JAN -5.0 -9.6 1018 97 98 0.03 538 525

WED 12Z 12-JAN -5.4 -11.1 1020 97 100 0.03 537 522

WED 18Z 12-JAN -2.4 -11.8 1020 87 100 0.04 536 520

THU 00Z 13-JAN -4.5 -11.5 1022 98 100 0.02 536 519

THU 06Z 13-JAN -6.1 -11.6 1023 99 89 0.01 536 519

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so the ggem and gfs are working the idea of a low trying to make it up into the OV before transferring. If this is the type of storm that ends up occurring, i would be surprised if the solutions dont become stronger and more nw. I think it boils down to this or total suppression/non-event. I'm still betting on idea number one. Euro is still the fly in the ointment though.

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so the ggem and gfs are working the idea of a low trying to make it up into the OV before transferring. If this is the type of storm that ends up occurring, i would be surprised if the solutions dont become stronger and more nw. I think it boils down to this or total suppression/non-event. I'm still betting on idea number one. Euro is still the fly in the ointment though.

Yeap... The doctor could crash the party....lol

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so the ggem and gfs are working the idea of a low trying to make it up into the OV before transferring. If this is the type of storm that ends up occurring, i would be surprised if the solutions dont become stronger and more nw. I think it boils down to this or total suppression/non-event. I'm still betting on idea number one. Euro is still the fly in the ointment though.

120-144 on the gem gives us a pretty decent snow I believe. .29-.59 would be the gem convertion to inchesNo clue where to get the MOS data for it though, except the earl barker site, but that isnt data. Just a snow map that doesnt seem accurate lol

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Yeap... The doctor could crash the party....lol

The ggem looks like its just some light to moderate snow associated with upper low. I dont claim to have the best eyes but I didnt see a low or any reflection coming up our way...Just the main low further east. I wish we could just bomb the low near the gulf and bring it up west of the apps. But its never going to happen. I'd be more than satisfied with what the ggem is showing. It'd be a solid advisory snow with a long duration.

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Looking at the GGEM I came up with around 10 millimeters or around .40" QPF for SW Ohio up to maybe .46" in SE Ohio. Tough to be exact but most of southern and central Ohio are looking at a 6-8+" storm if it would verify. I am with Buckeye that the northern and stronger solution should work out. Euro H5s are damn accurate but the surface leaves a lot to be desired but I have to feel the Euro will at least trend N a bit on the run. If not it will be hard to take much stock in the GGEM and GFS but the GFS was good for working top/down in the run of showing a much more phased and northern track result.

But I do notice on the GGEM it parks the ULL over Ohio for an extended time. Maybe not park but crawl through S IN, S OH. Not a real bowling ball but strong and slow enough for enhancement that could add 2-3" to get us into the 6 inch or greater range.

Josh

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so the ggem and gfs are working the idea of a low trying to make it up into the OV before transferring. If this is the type of storm that ends up occurring, i would be surprised if the solutions dont become stronger and more nw. I think it boils down to this or total suppression/non-event. I'm still betting on idea number one. Euro is still the fly in the ointment though.

lol...wait till i post this gem in the mid atlantic board:)

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I'd bet my last beer the Euro starts to catch on soon and this threat is something to def watch for central Ohio and south. Not saying a big dog but 3-6" is not out of the picture especially for southern and eastern sections.

I agree. We just need the phasing to be a little bit quicker. Would love to see a decent event all across Kentucky and Tennessee. It has been a while since we have a gotten a widespread decent snowfall.

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I agree. We just need the phasing to be a little bit quicker. Would love to see a decent event all across Kentucky and Tennessee. It has been a while since we have a gotten a widespread decent snowfall.

I got pictures of this past Christmas of snow falling in Tennessee through Atlanta GA.. You had a white Christmas, too, right?

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I got pictures of this past Christmas of snow falling in Tennessee through Atlanta GA.. You had a white Christmas, too, right?

Yes we did! But it was only an inch or so of snow on the ground. But nonetheless that is an official white Christmas. First in 6 years. But I'm looking for a big one. I have only seen two storms with over 4 inches of snow since 2004 since Western Kentucky got screwed with the 2008 storm. But that must have been nice to see snow in an unusual place.

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Yes we did! But it was only an inch or so of snow on the ground. But nonetheless that is an official white Christmas. First in 6 years. But I'm looking for a big one. I have only seen two storms with over 4 inches of snow since 2004 since Western Kentucky got screwed with the 2008 storm. But that must have been nice to see snow in an unusual place.

Again verbatim on GGEM it seems to enhance W and NW KY with heavy precip at 108. Maybe NW Deform of southern low. It will change but at least this run it appears to be 28-30 with heavy snow. Now if we can get a NNE deform then I hope you get hammered because that means I would, also.

Josh

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Yes we did! But it was only an inch or so of snow on the ground. But nonetheless that is an official white Christmas. First in 6 years. But I'm looking for a big one. I have only seen two storms with over 4 inches of snow since 2004 since Western Kentucky got screwed with the 2008 storm. But that must have been nice to see snow in an unusual place.

I hear ya.. And yes a nice big foot plus storm with no precip type issues would be sweet.. At least most of the south has escaped the ice storms for now. I really though they would be showing their face again this winter but not so so far, knock on wood!

I didn't get to see all the snow in unusual places but the wife was pretty stoked during their drive to florida to see the beautiful landscape down there all covered in white.

Couple from TN and one going through Hotlanta.

hwa052.jpg

j67x53.jpg

2hwftd3.jpg

Palm shot for, Cromartie.

10epnxc.jpg

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... At least most of the south has escaped the ice storms for now. I really though they would be showing their face again this winter but not so so far, knock on wood!

That's a very good point. So far this winter it seems there's been a lack of significant freezing rain events. Usually we've seen a few by now.

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I hear ya.. And yes a nice big foot plus storm with no precip type issues would be sweet.. At least most of the south has escaped the ice storms for now. I really though they would be showing their face again this winter but not so so far, knock on wood!

I didn't get to see all the snow in unusual places but the wife was pretty stoked during their drive to florida to see the beautiful landscape down there all covered in white.

That's a very good point. So far this winter it seems there's been a lack of significant freezing rain events. Usually we've seen a few by now.

Actually Louisville had a pretty nasty ice storm a few weeks ago. Not much in the way of power outages but the roads were terrible. 26 degrees and rain does not bode well. It was a dangerous trip just to walk to your car. I won't forget that one because of how all the roads were a sheet of ice for about 36 hours. Everybody got .25-.50 inch of ice. Just thankful there was no power outages.

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