dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its is a small mesoscale weather phenomenon that streams atlantic moisture from a deep low pressure system off the coast inland along a narrow band. It connects one area of low pressure to another, these bands are areas of not only enhanced moisture transport but also enhanced vertical motion, surface convergence and upper level divergence. They often result in a region of heavy snow activity along the trough with intense snowfall rates, over a short period of time. can see it here on the 0z NAM This was mentioned in the BOX afd earlier today Yea, thanks. I had never heard of it and was thinking he was an idiot or something. LOL. well he still is, but at least he didnt make up a trough to give the ec snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Norlun troughs typically have instability associated with them so they can be prolific snowfall producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Baro: Henry Magusity keeps mentioning something maybe you can tell me wth it is. Norlun trough? In nearly 4 years here I have NEVER heard that term. He's on my facebook btw. lol You know I had never heard of it either until this event. Basically just an inverted surface trough that develops with these large vortex systems as the cold front pushes over the Gulf Stream then stalls as the main vortex elongates/and or spins over the same region. Unlike a coastal bomb, the the orientation of the height field does not allow for a cyclonic storm to develop. Instead convergence is focused along the frontal boundary with moist Gulf Stream moisture enhancing precipitation through low level destabilization of the atmosphere. Honestly probably about as predictable as a long axis Lake Michigan lake band with 50-100+ j/kg of CAPE. High intensity and rather thin...any event where convection will play a role will throw in a ton of variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You know I had never heard of it either until this event. Basically just an inverted surface trough that develops with these large and vortex systems as the cold pushes over the Gulf Stream then stalls as the main vortex elongates/and or spins over the same region. Unlike a coastal bomb, the the orientation of the height field does not allow for a cyclonic storm to develop. Instead convergence is focused along the frontal boundary with moist Gulf Stream moisture enhancing precipitation through low level destabilization of the atmosphere. Honestly probably about as predictable as a long axis Lake Michigan lake band with 50-100+ j/kg of CAPE. High intensity and rather thin...any event where convection will play a role will throw in a ton of variability. well I dont feel so bad. You're a MET and hadn't. Reading up on it I see that they can produce snows of 2-3" per hour. Wonder as a result of the strength if these produce thunder and such? Typically rates that high is from thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 well I dont feel so bad. You're a MET and hadn't. Reading up on it I see that they can produce snows of 2-3" per hour. Wonder as a result of the strength if these produce thunder and such? Typically rates that high is from thundersnow. Yeah I had seen it a couple times but not being from the Northeast I didn't really know what it was either. Glad we found out though I doubt it will matter much for any of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Norlun troughs typically have instability associated with them so they can be prolific snowfall producers. Yeah pretty much. Wherever the axis point of rotation is with this band will determine who gets crushed. If I were forecasting this event I would consider the NAM instability/rates but likely go with GFS type synoptics since the NAM sucks. Most lake events I do the same unless I feel the NAM is catching on to something on the synoptic scale in terms of winds/directions. well I dont feel so bad. You're a MET and hadn't. Reading up on it I see that they can produce snows of 2-3" per hour. Wonder as a result of the strength if these produce thunder and such? Typically rates that high is from thundersnow. I am sure these events produce thunder, and possibly a lot. I think to some of the beastly lake bands around Buffalo, NY in WSW flow. Those can be prolific lightning producers...and NAM soundings off the coast have the inversion at 500 hpa! A good Erie band for Buffalo may have inversions at 600 hpa at the deepest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS at 120 looks like it is about to go coastal crazy, Mid-Atlantic might get a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS at 120 looks like it is about to go coastal crazy, Mid-Atlantic might get a hit. Seen that. Sickening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Perfect little square around IL, IN, and OH lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Seen that. Sickening. There it goes at 138. Weather weenies will crowd the board now awaiting the 0Z ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What you know, a coastal storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 And BOOM for the EC again.. Heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What you know, a coastal storm The total QPF map beautifully showcases the snow hole excluding MN/WI of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The total QPF map beautifully showcases the snow hole excluding MN/WI of course Yeah it really is funny, it seems like every run of the models finds a different way to job the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I won't lie but thats a step in the right direction. Around .20 QPF for southern Ohio.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like some fantasy bull**** around hr 228-240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 And BOOM for the EC again.. Heavy snow. Its funny when winter started everyone was saying that the east coast would have to get their snow in december because january-march will be warmer with little snow. Sure this storm is far away but the pattern since mid-december has been ripe for storms on the east coast. They are 1-4 in coastals but there will be another if the pattern stays the same. Just goes to show you winter outlooks are pointless because teleconnections ultimately will play a bigger role than the ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I will say this looking at the 500 it is closer to a phase then it was 24hrs ago.... What I mean is the phasing over Ohio,IN is much closer then it was 24hrs ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I will say this looking at the 500 it is closer to a phase then it was 24hrs ago.... What I mean is the phasing over Ohio,IN is much closer then it was 24hrs ago.... phasing in time for an East Coast blizzard again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like some fantasy bull**** around hr 228-240 Keep it in your pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like some fantasy bull**** around hr 228-240 Boy look at the cold just across the border too, 474 thicknesses, brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Keep it in your pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its funny when winter started everyone was saying that the east coast would have to get their snow in december because january-march will be warmer with little snow. Sure this storm is far away but the pattern since mid-december has been ripe for storms on the east coast. They are 1-4 in coastals but there will be another if the pattern stays the same. Just goes to show you winter outlooks are pointless because teleconnections ultimately will play a bigger role than the ENSO. Yeah it really is funny, it seems like every run of the models finds a different way to job the Great Lakes. I know this will be like talking to a brick wall, but guys, TRY to enjoy the snow we have in the coming days. Could possibly be very exciting here in S MI with some help from the lake, and whatever happens Id hate to think these blasted models are on weather weenies minds instead of the snow thats falling. The models change every frickin' run. To see how much they change, pick a 60-hr qpf time, and then compare the previous 3 runs. They are not even close. The east coast had 1 real snowstorm, we had 1 real snowstorm. Yes theres was bigger. Funny all this talk about suppression now boom, an east coast storm? Still 5+ days out too. Seriously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 thats only storm 1 Here is the MOS data for Cincinnati with Storm 2 thats in this time frame... TUE 12Z 11-JAN -4.7 -9.0 1019 93 100 0.14 542 527 TUE 18Z 11-JAN -2.6 -9.6 1019 84 99 0.06 539 525 WED 00Z 12-JAN -4.4 -10.5 1021 95 99 0.03 540 523 WED 06Z 12-JAN -5.5 -11.6 1022 98 98 0.01 538 522 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NVM max I was looking at the wrong time frame on the 60hr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I know this will be like talking to a brick wall, but guys, TRY to enjoy the snow we have in the coming days. Could possibly be very exciting here in S MI with some help from the lake, and whatever happens Id hate to think these blasted models are on weather weenies minds instead of the snow thats falling. The models change every frickin' run. To see how much they change, pick a 60-hr qpf time, and then compare the previous 3 runs. They are not even close. The east coast had 1 real snowstorm, we had 1 real snowstorm. Yes theres was bigger. Funny all this talk about suppression now boom, an east coast storm? Still 5+ days out too. Seriously... I understand and you make good points but we should be dominating this winter (the whole midwest and upper midwest) with a favorable ENSO! I would have put my checking account on the factt that we would have received more snow than NYC or anyone on the eastern seaboard. Still plenty of time but I am going by what has happened so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here is the QPF map with storm 2... Baby steps in the right direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 thats only storm 1 Here is the MOS data for Cincinnati with Storm 2 thats in this time frame... TUE 12Z 11-JAN -4.7 -9.0 1019 93 100 0.14 542 527 TUE 18Z 11-JAN -2.6 -9.6 1019 84 99 0.06 539 525 WED 00Z 12-JAN -4.4 -10.5 1021 95 99 0.03 540 523 WED 06Z 12-JAN -5.5 -11.6 1022 98 98 0.01 538 522 Whats the MOS for kcmh and kzzv? Remove your map making my page all weird lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 NVM max I was looking at the wrong time frame on the 60hr.. Its cool I thought I was losing my mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's another congrats MSP and skid marks. ...especially since msp is probably headed back to TX during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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