baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This was over by 72 hours on the 18Z GFS. Note how the retrograding vortex interacts negatively with the first jet max/ejecting S/W ahead of the western trough. This kills cyclogenesis and the secondary jet max the ECM/GFS have been consistent with ejects into the plains well displaced from the baroclinic zone. Weak, pathetic development occurs and little to no amplification develops. No amplification means the wave remains very low amplitude and maintains a fast wave speed. So, instead of that secondary jet max "enhancing" cyclogenesis over the plains and slowing down, there is no cyclone for it to enhance. As I mentioned earlier, the development of the vortex through 72-78 hours will let us know early how this forecast pans out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Im calling game over for another storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I agree with baroclinic_instability that this is just not in the cards for us further north, in terms of a big storm, so I'll throw in the towel in that regard. However, I'm not ready to concede that a coastal hugger with a bit of an inverted sfc trough is not possible, with associated light to moderate amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I don't think the storm will come north. The general track is pretty well known now. The hope for you is that it takes a slow enough track similar to earlier GFS runs with the secondary jet max dominating to force sufficient intensification early enough in the southern plains/MS Valley to wrap snow around the low before it undergoes coastal development. I think it will come slightly further north, but not nearly enough. Tennessee is going to get rocked. Here's hoping to the latter, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Here's CoastalWx's latest take (a good SNE met): I wouldn't be shocked if we have a brief warmup as a low tries to cut west. It could very well be a swfe (southwest flow event), with a low coming up the OH valley and a secondary moving over se mass. The trough axis temporarily shifts west, which seems to promote ridging over the East. It still very well may end up further se, but I think the signal is there for something that may be a plethora of ptypes for some. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/6661-january-2011-thoughts-area-of-warmth-could-be-somewhat-limited/page__view__findpost__p__226195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Here's CoastalWx's latest take (a good SNE met): I wouldn't be shocked if we have a brief warmup as a low tries to cut west. It could very well be a swfe (southwest flow event), with a low coming up the OH valley and a secondary moving over se mass. The trough axis temporarily shifts west, which seems to promote ridging over the East. It still very well may end up further se, but I think the signal is there for something that may be a plethora of ptypes for some. http://www.americanw...post__p__226195 Interesting. Lucky all my time the next few days will be on this good lake effect setup we have here in SE MI...so by the time that is over, maybe this storm will have a little more clear picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Here's CoastalWx's latest take (a good SNE met): I wouldn't be shocked if we have a brief warmup as a low tries to cut west. It could very well be a swfe (southwest flow event), with a low coming up the OH valley and a secondary moving over se mass. The trough axis temporarily shifts west, which seems to promote ridging over the East. It still very well may end up further se, but I think the signal is there for something that may be a plethora of ptypes for some. http://www.americanw...post__p__226195 Coastalwx is right, but in this scenario, a good storm event for OH valley goes hand in hand with a good coastal event. Development of the cyclone early in the plains and MS Valley is key both for the storm to slow down and as well as for the necessary upstream ridging to develop so the system tracks farther NW. This heads OTS if the storm doesn't already have sufficient amplification and strength to support a strong enough push of arctic air at the right angle wrt to the Gulf Stream for sufficient coastal development and a low tracking along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I know I am pretty sick of the split flow pattern. I'm tired of being in the middle of everything, or getting a craptastic event. This storm needs to come further north. everyone's angry settle down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z GEM still putting nice amounts on the northern side of this thing, not buying it. seems to be the outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Starting to look like whatever I get will be super high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Starting to look like whatever I get will be super high ratios. why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z GEM still putting nice amounts on the northern side of this thing, not buying it. seems to be the outlier right now. But a consistent outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 why? This one from the GFS when its actually snowing. That is pretty cold. Decent lift would get some good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I know I am pretty sick of the split flow pattern. I'm tired of being in the middle of everything, or getting a craptastic event. This storm needs to come further north. Don't give up hope yet. I believe you just moved here from Nebraska? I still think we still have a decent shot at getting this snow. Just need this storm to phase, we're so close. If you don't mind me asking, do you work at the NWS here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well margusity isnt going to fail on where he thinks will get snow next week, considering he covered over 75% of the eastern half of the country for "Areas where snow is possible" lmao Look at his second map http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/43992/snow-maps-for-the-two-storms-coming-are-ready-norlun-trough-snows.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well margusity isnt going to fail on where he thinks will get snow next week, considering he covered over 75% of the eastern half of the country for "Areas where snow is possible" lmao Look at his second map http://www.accuweath...rough-snows.asp I just saw that, he is full of it. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This one from the GFS when its actually snowing. That is pretty cold. Decent lift would get some good ratios. really nice depth with the DGZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well margusity isnt going to fail on where he thinks will get snow next week, considering he covered over 75% of the eastern half of the country for "Areas where snow is possible" lmao Look at his second map http://www.accuweath...rough-snows.asp Yeah hard not to fail there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well margusity isnt going to fail on where he thinks will get snow next week, considering he covered over 75% of the eastern half of the country for "Areas where snow is possible" lmao Look at his second map http://www.accuweath...rough-snows.asp I'm going with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm going with this one. LMAO. They must have a magical model lol it's going to be PD2 repeat lol. Where did you find that I wanna read that story haha. NVM found it. And sadly that is from their expert meteorologist. WTF drugs are those guys on over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I dunno, it's possible, the heaviest snow may only be 1-2" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Baro: Henry Magusity keeps mentioning something maybe you can tell me wth it is. Norlun trough? In nearly 4 years here I have NEVER heard that term. He's on my facebook btw. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well margusity isnt going to fail on where he thinks will get snow next week, considering he covered over 75% of the eastern half of the country for "Areas where snow is possible" lmao Look at his second map http://www.accuweath...rough-snows.asp Cute on how hes got SWMI in the 1-3" Range considering there forecasted to get up to 2 feet in the next 48 hrs! For the map below: Speechless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Baro: Henry Magusity keeps mentioning something maybe you can tell me wth it is. Norlun trough? In nearly 4 years here I have NEVER heard that term. He's on my facebook btw. lol Like every paper in New England, the Press-Herald has the standard "it snowed a lot" story today … but this intriguing meteorological gem is tucked at the bottom: Pohl, the weather service meteorologist in Gray, said snowfall varied widely and was heavier in some areas because of a phenomenon known as a "Norlan Trough." That’s an area of extremely low pressure, with heavy precipitation, that formed between two low-pressure systems that moved into the area from the Great Lakes and the Gulf of Maine. Pohl said the troughs can produce snow at a rate of two inches an hour. "We’ve gotten burned by these in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Baro: Henry Magusity keeps mentioning something maybe you can tell me wth it is. Norlun trough? In nearly 4 years here I have NEVER heard that term. He's on my facebook btw. lol lol, SNEers talk about it all the time. Have a general idea of what it is, but the mets will explain it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Cute on how hes got SWMI in the 1-3" Range considering there forecasted to get up to 2 feet in the next 48 hrs! For the map below: Speechless I think he's speaking synoptically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lol, SNEers talk about it all the time. Have a general idea of what it is, but the mets will explain it better. basically in layman's terms it is a heavy band of snow 20-50 miles wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think he's speaking synoptically Strange because if he doesnt include LES he has northen Michigans snowbelts in the 3-6 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Baro: Henry Magusity keeps mentioning something maybe you can tell me wth it is. Norlun trough? In nearly 4 years here I have NEVER heard that term. He's on my facebook btw. lol Its is a small mesoscale weather phenomenon that streams atlantic moisture from a deep low pressure system off the coast inland along a narrow band. It connects one area of low pressure to another, these bands are areas of not only enhanced moisture transport but also enhanced vertical motion, surface convergence and upper level divergence. They often result in a region of heavy snow activity along the trough with intense snowfall rates, over a short period of time. can see it here on the 0z NAM This was mentioned in the BOX afd earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm assuming they are REALLY hard to predict? Kinda like LES? You won't know until it is happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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