Powerball Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It is a long shot for us and the MI crew, but not so much for those to the south and west. Yeah, I'm still sticking with my call for a decent storm along/south of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I hate relying on LES, it can be very fickle here...if worse comes to worse, I'd hope for a I696/I6 to I94 deal Yeah, I would be far more content if we had a I-96 band vs. a I-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah, I would be far more content if we had a I-96 band vs. a I-94. Not I! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The euro last night tried to get rid of the left over energy. If this storm is strong enough next week, wouldnt it be able to overcome the vortex leftover. Still hard to believe that little left over energy will suppress a bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 OT: How does Kalamazoo do for snow? I might be going to WMich for Football. I saw online around 70". Good lake effect? Big storms? Historical storms? Josh covered it somewhat. While you may not get as many 12+ synoptic events the chances are still as good ( as would be in Boston-Maybe better? ) via the lake. The further west side of town you live there the better off you are because you up the odd's of cashing in nnw flow events as well. Basically for about every mile west you go add on a inch of snowfall to the seasonal total. That is based off the seasonal average here vs there etc. Truth be told this is where i wanna end up down the road a bit. Basically everything you need right there ( Transportation/shopping etc ) with decent snows/les on top of it. Stats which *could* be off slightly. Most seasonal snowfall, 130-140" depending on where in town you end up. Least in a season, 25-30" ?? Biggest synoptic event, Jan 1978 with 24". And or Jan 67 which may have had totals of up to 30" especially just ne/ene of town. This does not count any left over lake effect. As far as lake effect goes i think the late Dec 2001 event is king with some spots near there ( just west a few miles ) with totals of 60+! Yes i said 60"+. Similar thing happened with the Jan 99 blizzard which turned into a big LES event. Do better as well with severe wx out that way because of the lake influences. See GRR nws for more on this. Strongest Tornado there was a F3 which ripped right through downtown. Has been a few others as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Really? Another coastal this time period . Never seen so many bombs either OTs or near the coast than we've seen this year. Seems like every week we are hoping a EC storm gets out of the way so a storm further west can strenghten as it crosses the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is to much even for us...this happened last time where the models almost killed all of our snow chances and the south west wave bulled threw with no models having as strong as it was. but this seems more extreme. now have to hope the NW energy can get better organized outside of some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Snow is in the forecast for Mon-Tues next week. This storm has me more confused than the last two. Are we looking at a series of systems that pass south, along, say I-70, and then run up the coast? Or, can we hope that some SE ridging will build in, the vort of the GL will go away, or have no effect, and an actual storm will come across this part of the GL region. I think my local snow total hangs somewhere around 8" total so far... it might be more, I haven't formally measured. O'Hare is too far N, and MDW is almost too far SE to be reliable in my opinion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Snow is in the forecast for Mon-Tues next week. This storm has me more confused than the last two. Are we looking at a series of systems that pass south, along, say I-70, and then run up the coast? Or, can we hope that some SE ridging will build in, the vort of the GL will go away, or have no effect, and an actual storm will come across this part of the GL region. I think my local snow total hangs somewhere around 8" total so far... it might be more, I haven't formally measured. O'Hare is too far N, and MDW is almost too far SE to be reliable in my opinion.... There is one wave out of the SW that has been sitting there for a while. It is going to eject East. it is decently strong. The System over the lakes has gone from moving out and weakening to being substantially stronger and further west. Heights are crushed on the Eastside of the country and the southern energy gets squashed. now we wait to see how strong and organized the northern piece will be. Maybe the suppression will back off some and we can get it to track further north. not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is one of those situations where you sit back and see how things play out. The models are known for losing phasing in this time frame not only to bring it back in that <84hr time frame. Were still 5 days away which is still medium range and the models are known for having a hard time with phasing in this time frame. I think between Friday night-Sunday AM will be the very critical time period. If the phasing does not happen then does then the northern piece do the dirty work and puts light amounts less than <4 across the MW, GL and OV? We'll see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 144hr CMC isn't bad but I am not one of those that will take the CMC and run with simply because it gives me the most snow LOL. I will simply put it into the file cabinet for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think at this point there is better than 50/50 odds that there will be a 'storm' next week originating in the southern plains that survives, if not, intensifies east. The question is how far north and how strong. Models seem to be coming together on it trying to cut for the lakes but getting blocked and then reforming. Overall, I still like this threat for a large part of our region in general....with many in the OV/lower lakes and E.MW potentially seeing their biggest synoptic snow so far this season. there, I said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think at this point there is better than 50/50 odds that there will be a 'storm' next week originating in the southern plains that survives, if not, intensifies east. The question is how far north and how strong. Models seem to be coming together on it trying to cut for the lakes but getting blocked and then reforming. Overall, I still like this threat for a large part of our region in general....with many in the OV/lower lakes and E.MW potentially seeing their biggest synoptic snow so far this season. there, I said it. You nailed the Xmas storm screwing us.... I am with you on this... I think this is something the models will catch this weekend. Its going to be a long 2-3 days LOL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You're more optimistic than me, Buckeye. Personally I'm saying it stays supressed, and we wind up with some snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the GEM is a joke. Honestly I love hockey a lot. but as of now I would say the GEM is the NHL of the big 4. EURO = NFL, GFS = MLB, NBA = NAM, EPL = Ukmet, and the NHL = GEM. always inferior with a hidden GEM to bad it's 87 percent rate of being right sucks compared to the 93 percent euro and 92 percent ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You're more optimistic than me, Buckeye. Personally I'm saying it stays supressed, and we wind up with some snow showers. Well then you and Baro are really gonna think i'm insane when i say my biggest fear of how we could get screwed is with a warm tongue or dryslot as the primary tries to head for ohio before redeveloping. This just has that feeling to me that the models are going to start keying in on a stronger system. Granted, I would expect the euro to start seeing it too though....but i wouldn't be surprised to see an amped up euro run coming soon. of course i could be miserably wrong too but what the hell, ive posted it for future humiliatory or congratulatory fodor, (and no plans to quit my day job) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well then you and Baro are really gonna think i'm insane when i say my biggest fear of how we could get screwed is with a warm tongue or dryslot as the primary tries to head for ohio before redeveloping. This just has that feeling to me that the models are going to start keying in on a stronger system. Granted, I would expect the euro to start seeing it too though....but i wouldn't be surprised to see an amped up euro run coming soon. of course i could be miserably wrong too but what the hell, ive posted it for future humiliatory or congratulatory fodor, (and no plans to quit my day job) If you're right about a storm, dryslot I could see. Warm air I think will be a nonfactor. The one thing against us, is all season when it showed a threat for us, once that threat was taken away if never came back, for our location anyways. So I'm sticking with seasonal trends and saying A. It either stays supressed B. It comes north but not far enough north or C. It cuts and hits MSP leaving us cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If you're right about a storm, dryslot I could see. Warm air I think will be a nonfactor. The one thing against us, is all season when it showed a threat for us, once that threat was taken away if never came back, for our location anyways. So I'm sticking with seasonal trends and saying A. It either stays supressed B. It comes north but not far enough north or C. It cuts and hits MSP leaving us cold and dry. well the ggem has been flipping and flopping but has it back for us now......the euro has never had it for us, yet...and the gfs has been flippin and floppin, including losing it yesterday and bringing it back. I think your strongest point to be made for suppression is the euro not really budging on that yet. I'd say if by tomorrows 12z run,the euro is still squashing this it'll be hard for me to stick by my guns on this....unless every other model is in the storm camp. jb made a couple of good points in todays vid...(he does make good points from time to time when you sort thru the hype). First, the nao will be heading back up to positive, (often a good signal for ridging just off the eastcoast). Second, the illustration of the gfs 500 map and it making, as he calls it, "it's usual error". Putting too much emphasis on the front running energy in the trough so it makes everything more progressive. He's made this point before and I've seen the gfs correct itself just as he is saying. It starts to show the energy on the backside stronger and you end up with more digging and more ridging ahead...thus a stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The Euro will likely end up north somewhat...less confluence over the lakes, and more SE ridging attempting to build. BTW...JB still likes the low to Buffalo bowling ball transfer to coastal idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The Euro will likely end up north somewhat...less confluence over the lakes, and more SE ridging attempting to build. BTW...JB still likes the low to Buffalo bowling ball transfer to coastal idea. Meh, couldn't build heights strong enough...coastal or OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The Euro has zero QPF thru 12Z Wednesday for Kokomo for next weeks storm. (Just 0.03 for the clipper(s).) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is like last nights Sugar Bowl with the darn Bucks getting out ahead big time and the Razorbacks creeping back into the game making the game a dog dight. Only for the Bucks to squeak it out in the end. Right now were down 3 scores but I feel a slow and steady come back as we head into the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is like last nights Sugar Bowl with the darn Bucks getting out ahead big time and the Razorbacks creeping back into the game making the game a dog dight. Only for the Bucks to squeak it out in the end. Right now were down 3 scores but I feel a slow and steady come back as we head into the weekend! Except the Razorbacks threw an INT and lost the game. So would that mean a slow and steady comeback but ultimately a giant miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Except the Razorbacks threw an INT and lost the game. So would that mean a slow and steady comeback but ultimately a giant miss? No his analogy would've been better if he'd said the models showed a storm for us(except euro) so we were ahead, but then the models shifted away(comeback) but in the end Ohio state won..I guess is his meaning. Although weather and sports are no where near the same lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yesterday's 6-10 day analog is moving 1978 to the top. However I did go back and check as many as I could from the matching list and while snowfall amounts were all over the road, they all seemed to be really cold; many times with multiple days below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 at 84 hours the 18z nam is really kicking the Great Lakes low out of the way..it is weaker then 12z. lets hope this is a good sign. we saw with the split flow like this a couple weeks ago how the southern vort was stronger and the suppression was weaker getting closer to the event after the models over compensated the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I know I am pretty sick of the split flow pattern. I'm tired of being in the middle of everything, or getting a craptastic event. This storm needs to come further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And the 18z GFS looks like its going to say "Hi Guys, look how powerful I am down here, but I am not coming to visit the OV" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I know I am pretty sick of the split flow pattern. I'm tired of being in the middle of everything, or getting a craptastic event. This storm needs to come further north. I don't think the storm will come north. The general track is pretty well known now. The hope for you is that it takes a slow enough track similar to earlier GFS runs with the secondary jet max dominating to force sufficient intensification early enough in the southern plains/MS Valley to wrap snow around the low before it undergoes coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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