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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects


Madmaxweather

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OT: How does Kalamazoo do for snow? I might be going to WMich for Football. I saw online around 70". Good lake effect? Big storms? Historical storms?

Josh covered it somewhat. While you may not get as many 12+ synoptic events the chances are still as good ( as would be in Boston-Maybe better? ) via the lake. The further west side of town you live there the better off you are because you up the odd's of cashing in nnw flow events as well. Basically for about every mile west you go add on a inch of snowfall to the seasonal total. That is based off the seasonal average here vs there etc.

Truth be told this is where i wanna end up down the road a bit. Basically everything you need right there ( Transportation/shopping etc ) with decent snows/les on top of it.

Stats which *could* be off slightly.

Most seasonal snowfall, 130-140" depending on where in town you end up.

Least in a season, 25-30" ??

Biggest synoptic event, Jan 1978 with 24". And or Jan 67 which may have had totals of up to 30" especially just ne/ene of town. This does not count any left over lake effect. As far as lake effect goes i think the late Dec 2001 event is king with some spots near there ( just west a few miles ) with totals of 60+! Yes i said 60"+. Similar thing happened with the Jan 99 blizzard which turned into a big LES event.

Do better as well with severe wx out that way because of the lake influences. See GRR nws for more on this. Strongest Tornado there was a F3 which ripped right through downtown. Has been a few others as well.

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Snow is in the forecast for Mon-Tues next week.

This storm has me more confused than the last two. Are we looking at a series of systems that pass south, along, say I-70, and then run up the coast? Or, can we hope that some SE ridging will build in, the vort of the GL will go away, or have no effect, and an actual storm will come across this part of the GL region. I think my local snow total hangs somewhere around 8" total so far... it might be more, I haven't formally measured. O'Hare is too far N, and MDW is almost too far SE to be reliable in my opinion....

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Snow is in the forecast for Mon-Tues next week.

This storm has me more confused than the last two. Are we looking at a series of systems that pass south, along, say I-70, and then run up the coast? Or, can we hope that some SE ridging will build in, the vort of the GL will go away, or have no effect, and an actual storm will come across this part of the GL region. I think my local snow total hangs somewhere around 8" total so far... it might be more, I haven't formally measured. O'Hare is too far N, and MDW is almost too far SE to be reliable in my opinion....

There is one wave out of the SW that has been sitting there for a while.

It is going to eject East. it is decently strong. The System over the lakes has gone from moving out and weakening to being substantially stronger and further west. Heights are crushed on the Eastside of the country and the southern energy gets squashed.

now we wait to see how strong and organized the northern piece will be.

Maybe the suppression will back off some and we can get it to track further north. not looking good.

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This is one of those situations where you sit back and see how things play out. The models are known for losing phasing in this time frame not only to bring it back in that <84hr time frame. Were still 5 days away which is still medium range and the models are known for having a hard time with phasing in this time frame. I think between Friday night-Sunday AM will be the very critical time period.

If the phasing does not happen then does then the northern piece do the dirty work and puts light amounts less than <4 across the MW, GL and OV?

We'll see what happens!

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I think at this point there is better than 50/50 odds that there will be a 'storm' next week originating in the southern plains that survives, if not, intensifies east. The question is how far north and how strong.

Models seem to be coming together on it trying to cut for the lakes but getting blocked and then reforming. Overall, I still like this threat for a large part of our region in general....with many in the OV/lower lakes and E.MW potentially seeing their biggest synoptic snow so far this season.

there, I said it.:popcorn:

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I think at this point there is better than 50/50 odds that there will be a 'storm' next week originating in the southern plains that survives, if not, intensifies east. The question is how far north and how strong.

Models seem to be coming together on it trying to cut for the lakes but getting blocked and then reforming. Overall, I still like this threat for a large part of our region in general....with many in the OV/lower lakes and E.MW potentially seeing their biggest synoptic snow so far this season.

there, I said it.:popcorn:

You nailed the Xmas storm screwing us.... I am with you on this... I think this is something the models will catch this weekend. Its going to be a long 2-3 days LOL....

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You're more optimistic than me, Buckeye. Personally I'm saying it stays supressed, and we wind up with some snow showers.

Well then you and Baro are really gonna think i'm insane when i say my biggest fear of how we could get screwed is with a warm tongue or dryslot as the primary tries to head for ohio before redeveloping.

This just has that feeling to me that the models are going to start keying in on a stronger system. Granted, I would expect the euro to start seeing it too though....but i wouldn't be surprised to see an amped up euro run coming soon.

of course i could be miserably wrong too :arrowhead:

but what the hell, ive posted it for future humiliatory or congratulatory fodor, (and no plans to quit my day job)

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Well then you and Baro are really gonna think i'm insane when i say my biggest fear of how we could get screwed is with a warm tongue or dryslot as the primary tries to head for ohio before redeveloping.

This just has that feeling to me that the models are going to start keying in on a stronger system. Granted, I would expect the euro to start seeing it too though....but i wouldn't be surprised to see an amped up euro run coming soon.

of course i could be miserably wrong too :arrowhead:

but what the hell, ive posted it for future humiliatory or congratulatory fodor, (and no plans to quit my day job)

If you're right about a storm, dryslot I could see. Warm air I think will be a nonfactor. The one thing against us, is all season when it showed a threat for us, once that threat was taken away if never came back, for our location anyways. So I'm sticking with seasonal trends and saying

A. It either stays supressed B. It comes north but not far enough north or C. It cuts and hits MSP leaving us cold and dry.

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If you're right about a storm, dryslot I could see. Warm air I think will be a nonfactor. The one thing against us, is all season when it showed a threat for us, once that threat was taken away if never came back, for our location anyways. So I'm sticking with seasonal trends and saying

A. It either stays supressed B. It comes north but not far enough north or C. It cuts and hits MSP leaving us cold and dry.

well the ggem has been flipping and flopping but has it back for us now......the euro has never had it for us, yet...and the gfs has been flippin and floppin, including losing it yesterday and bringing it back.

I think your strongest point to be made for suppression is the euro not really budging on that yet. I'd say if by tomorrows 12z run,the euro is still squashing this it'll be hard for me to stick by my guns on this....unless every other model is in the storm camp.

jb made a couple of good points in todays vid...(he does make good points from time to time when you sort thru the hype). First, the nao will be heading back up to positive, (often a good signal for ridging just off the eastcoast). Second, the illustration of the gfs 500 map and it making, as he calls it, "it's usual error". Putting too much emphasis on the front running energy in the trough so it makes everything more progressive. He's made this point before and I've seen the gfs correct itself just as he is saying. It starts to show the energy on the backside stronger and you end up with more digging and more ridging ahead...thus a stronger system.

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The Euro will likely end up north somewhat...less confluence over the lakes, and more SE ridging attempting to build.

BTW...JB still likes the low to Buffalo bowling ball transfer to coastal idea.

Meh, couldn't build heights strong enough...coastal or OTS

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This is like last nights Sugar Bowl with the darn Bucks getting out ahead big time and the Razorbacks creeping back into the game making the game a dog dight. Only for the Bucks to squeak it out in the end. Right now were down 3 scores but I feel a slow and steady come back as we head into the weekend!

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This is like last nights Sugar Bowl with the darn Bucks getting out ahead big time and the Razorbacks creeping back into the game making the game a dog dight. Only for the Bucks to squeak it out in the end. Right now were down 3 scores but I feel a slow and steady come back as we head into the weekend!

Except the Razorbacks threw an INT and lost the game. So would that mean a slow and steady comeback but ultimately a giant miss?

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Except the Razorbacks threw an INT and lost the game. So would that mean a slow and steady comeback but ultimately a giant miss?

No his analogy would've been better if he'd said the models showed a storm for us(except euro) so we were ahead, but then the models shifted away(comeback) but in the end Ohio state won..I guess is his meaning. Although weather and sports are no where near the same lol.

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at 84 hours the 18z nam is really kicking the Great Lakes low out of the way..it is weaker then 12z.

lets hope this is a good sign.

we saw with the split flow like this a couple weeks ago how the southern vort was stronger and the suppression was weaker getting closer to the event after the models over compensated the other way

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I know I am pretty sick of the split flow pattern. I'm tired of being in the middle of everything, or getting a craptastic event. This storm needs to come further north. :angry:

I don't think the storm will come north. The general track is pretty well known now. The hope for you is that it takes a slow enough track similar to earlier GFS runs with the secondary jet max dominating to force sufficient intensification early enough in the southern plains/MS Valley to wrap snow around the low before it undergoes coastal development.

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