Stebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:19 AM, Moneyman said: When is it not? Yeah good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Verbatim the GFS, most of Kentucky would get a 3-5 inch snow with this system. I could live with that. Onto the Euro, wish the Northern stream was a little stronger and I thought it would with it slowing down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:20 AM, ukrocks said: Verbatim the GFS, most of Kentucky would get a 3-5 inch snow with this system. I could live with that. Onto the Euro, wish the Northern stream was a little stronger and I thought it would with it slowing down a bit. Yeah which is why the GFS is totally out to lunch on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:22 AM, Stebo48858 said: Yeah which is why the GFS is totally out to lunch on this one. explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:09 AM, FarmerRick said: Lone member in the area? It's kinda hard to get a word in edgewise with 90% of those in these threads being from OHIO. Far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:22 AM, Stebo48858 said: Yeah which is why the GFS is totally out to lunch on this one. Yeah I don't follow either. What is out to lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 What is wrong with the GFS? I know something is screwy with it but it does give Ohio folks close to .25 QPF with 20 to 1 ratios 3-5 inches.. LOL I'll take that to the bank the way things have gone this winter. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:25 AM, Chicago Storm said: Far from it. There is a big handfull of folks from Ohio probably more then any other state but we got alot from MI and IL..... States like Nebraska etc are sort of isolated I guess which means less members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:28 AM, Madmaxweather said: What is wrong with the GFS? I know something is screwy with it but it does give Ohio folks close to .25 QPF with 20 to 1 ratios 3-5 inches.. LOL I'll take that to the bank the way things have gone this winter. LOL 20-1 is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS was a pretty nice run for the Lower Ohio Valley. NAM also, looks like it was latched on to a similar solution beyond its 84 hours. We'll have to see if the moisture comes through - the tendency has been to weaken the northern stream as the storm moves into the Mid- Mississippi Valley. Part of that may have been the 500 mb vortex which the latest trend is to have it out of here some time Monday. Getting better for the Ohio Valley with time. also 00z pained a solid 2-5" along the Ohio and lower Wabash Valley's in Indiana and Western Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 1. the Vortex in the plains at 102 will be stronger heading east. Nearly every single northern vort this year has been stronger as we get closer. if that is true and the southern vort can wash out faster, maybe a better moisture supply would be available. either way, I do not recall this pattern any time in recent years at the H5 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:27 AM, baroclinic_instability said: Yeah I don't follow either. What is out to lunch? Northern stream low gets suppressed into Mexico around 96hr even though the 500mb energy is still north and the southern stream system hitting the coast and then stalling there as its 500mb energy shears out and weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 More 200hr+ BS!!!! on the GFS LOL... That weekend storm has been consistent lol... You see that Cold air behind that WOW WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:37 AM, Stebo48858 said: Northern stream low gets suppressed into Mexico around 96hr even though the 500mb energy is still north and the southern stream system hitting the coast and then stalling there as its 500mb energy shears out and weakens. I honestly don't follow what you are talking about here. I don't see anything out-to-lunch with this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 -30 850's right in WI for hr 276 and 288. Damn, that's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:40 AM, baroclinic_instability said: I honestly don't follow what you are talking about here. I don't see anything out-to-lunch with this run though. You telling me that the Southern stream low as it hits the East Coast is just going to sit there for almost 18hr near Georgia. I just am having a hard time buying much of southern stream system about hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:36 AM, Frivolousz21 said: 1. the Vortex in the plains at 102 will be stronger heading east. Nearly every single northern vort this year has been stronger as we get closer. if that is true and the southern vort can wash out faster, maybe a better moisture supply would be available. either way, I do not recall this pattern any time in recent years at the H5 level. gfs is the right idea in general, but i think its too weak with the northern vort, thus showing less digging resulting in a weaker solution with much less precip further north. The gfs digs the energy, starts to negatively tilt the trough and then flattens it out and shears the energy east. Even the usually progressive nogaps has come in at 00z with a much sharper trough and a stronger low to eastern KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:31 AM, baroclinic_instability said: 20-1 is unlikely. Actually, I agree looking back at 850 temps 00z GFS was actually a bit warmer OV is sitting at -6°C whereas yesterday we were at -12°C Probably more like 15:1 Still not bad, but more like 1-3"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:44 AM, buckeye said: gfs is the right idea in general, but i think its too weak with the northern vort, thus showing less digging resulting in a weaker solution with much less precip further north. The gfs digs the energy, starts to negatively tilt the trough and then flattens it out and shears the energy east. Even the usually progressive nogaps has come in at 00z with a much sharper trough and a stronger low to eastern KY. That would be a very nice snow for all 3 of us if the NOGAPS were taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:31 AM, baroclinic_instability said: 20-1 is unlikely. Ugave a good explanation of why the earlier gfs runs wasn't coming north, what is the prob with the 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:42 AM, Stebo48858 said: You telling me that the Southern stream low as it hits the East Coast is just going to sit there for almost 18hr near Georgia. I just am having a hard time buying much of southern stream system about hr 78. Well thanks for reiterating...I honestly didn't know what you meant at first. We were talking about this in the discussion thread, but the weakening of the southern wave occurs rapidly through deep condensation and rapid latent heat release through the depth of the migratory wave. Heights rise rapidly and the migratory wave closes off and stalls. The surface low weakens and fills through the same processes that weaken stacked lows...ekman friction, etc. The GFS is trying to "capture" the low level circulation with the ejecting jet streak to further support cyclogenesis and redevelop the surface low off the coast. It may look weird, but it isn't non-sensical from a dynamic standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:48 AM, baroclinic_instability said: Well thanks for reiterating...I honestly didn't know what you meant at first. We were talking about this in the discussion thread, but the weakening of the southern wave occurs rapidly through deep condensation and rapid latent heat release through the depth of the migratory wave. Heights rise rapidly and the migratory wave closes off and stalls. The surface low weakens and fills through the same processes that weaken stacked lows...ekman friction, etc. The GFS is trying to "capture" the low level circulation with the ejecting jet streak to further support cyclogenesis and redevelop the surface low off the coast. It may look weird, but it isn't non-sensical from a dynamic standpoint. The problem is do we honestly believe it being that far south in the gulf to begin with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:47 AM, dilly84 said: Ugave a good explanation of why the earlier gfs runs wasn't coming north, what is the prob with the 0z? It actually went S, but the lack of a coastal is helping you guys since the low level circulation with a coastal isn't taking over the weaker circulation inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:50 AM, Stebo48858 said: The problem is do we honestly believe it being that far south in the gulf to begin with? Another question worth asking. Most guidance has pretty much centered on a solution with a migratory wave riding the edge of the GOM but the low level surface low well into the GOM. Convection and low level convergence to support that convection over the warm waters is why the low is so far displaced from the upper wave. You can see the moist warm sector convective response much better in the low level theta-e fields. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false I have been looking for trends regarding the cutoff, but almost all guidance and SREF ride it along the edge of the GOM, so from a forecasting standpoint I don't see a huge reason to red flag the model track of that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM is out B/W.. Looks like Ohio gets in on the fun http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM actually has a decent hit for SE MI with more of a SLP over OH compared previously transferring to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:54 AM, baroclinic_instability said: Another question worth asking. Most guidance has pretty much centered on a solution with a migratory wave riding the edge of the GOM but the low level surface low well into the GOM. Convection and low level convregence to support that convection over the warm waters is why the low is so far displaced from the upper wave. You can see the moist warm sector convective response much better in the low level theta-e fields. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false I have been looking for trends regarding the cutoff, but almost all guidance and SREF ride it along the edge of the GOM, so from a forecasting standpoint I don't see a huge reason to red flag the model track of that feature. It is a slight red flag as it is the furthest south in the gulf, compared to others but this is one to wait and see how it plays out as this could have huge implications if its in the gulf or along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:09 AM, FarmerRick said: Lone member in the area? It's kinda hard to get a word in edgewise with 90% of those in these threads being from OHIO. That is just ridiculous dude, youre always more than welcome to put your input in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On 1/7/2011 at 4:55 AM, JoMo said: GGEM is out B/W.. Looks like Ohio gets in on the fun http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html GGEM would be a very nice hit for Kentucky as well. I like how things are trending so far. I can only hope it keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The GGEM nails MN, lol. It has been having issues with this storm threat. Looks like it has a very dominant northern stream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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